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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay
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7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

36 with an east wind on the bay in South Wantagh. This ones DOA here.

still expecting a couple inches and some sleet on the far UWS. As others have said we will wet bulb during the thump. It’s all about now casting where the precip itself sets up. As of now it looks like it starts snowing north of the city before south so that in itself hurts

Yup. I'll consider anything more than covering the ground a win on the south shore. This one is completely trending the wrong direction. The initial overrunning overshooting us to the north is another issue. There may not be much cold left by the time snow/whatever starts. 

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1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

That has me in 7-8". That seems like a stretch.That must be counting sleet as snow?

Yes that is counting some sleet as snow however the Euro doesn't have much sleet on this run. It pretty much goes from snow right to rain.

I still think the models are way overdoing the surface warming. If you look at the last four runs of the HRRR it shows a gradual trend towards colder 2M temps over Northern PA. We will have to see if that spills Eastward. 

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2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Temp has dropped a degree to 31.1

Dewpoint has also dropped a degree to 25

You're in a good spot for this storm. I put you in the 3-6" range but I think your ceiling is closer to 10" if the sleet and freezing rain hold off longer than expected. The Euro gives you almost 0.75" of liquid as snow.

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19 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

The fact hat little storm yesterday did not develop and strengthen dragging down cold air behind it was the killer, it ended up just warming/stale out the airmass

 

This is a very good point. Had that storm been stronger it would have also helped to amplify this system further though. Not that it matters for the coast anyway. It would have made the icing threat much worse just Nw of the city.

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes that is counting some sleet as snow however the Euro doesn't have much sleet on this run. It pretty much goes from snow right to rain.

I still think the models are way overdoing the surface warming. If you look at the last four runs of the HRRR it shows a gradual trend towards colder 2M temps over Northern PA. We will have to see if that spills Eastward. 

was just noticing this about the HRRR too; correcting colder/drier the past 5 runs in nearly the entire cold sector and in damming areas east of the appalachians. 

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17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Euro doesn't take the 850 freezing line North of Rt 80 until after 06z. By then, this much precip has already fallen.

Weather Model

On LI, even putting snow aside for a minute, the total liquid precip up to this point (which I assume this is) is only what, .40" for Nassau eastward to the Sagtikos. and quarter inch eastward from there? 

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24 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

was just noticing this about the HRRR too; correcting colder/drier the past 5 runs in nearly the entire cold sector and in damming areas east of the appalachians. 

What worries me is that the HRRR soundings show a ZR profile even as far South as Rt 78, even as late as 12z Sunday, but it brings the surface up to 33-34 degrees. If that ends up a few degrees colder it's really going to increase the icing potential. At what point does the NWS start increasing ice forecasts? Right now they are pretty much saying less than 0.25" pretty much everywhere but you have to think the potential is certainly higher for a lot more than that.

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You're in a good spot for this storm. I put you in the 3-6" range but I think your ceiling is closer to 10" if the sleet and freezing rain hold off longer than expected. The Euro gives you almost 0.75" of liquid as snow.

In your estimation, how much of a threat is icing in Morristown?


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Just now, North and West said:


In your estimation, how much of a threat is icing in Morristown?


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It's pretty high I think. That corridor between I-80 and say I-84 is the highest risk zone it seems. North of that area would see more sleet and snow and South of there would probably warm too much.

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1 hour ago, Zelocita Weather said:

The fact hat little storm yesterday did not develop and strengthen dragging down cold air behind it was the killer, it ended up just warming/stale out the airmass

 

that's part of the issue-had today's airmass been in the mid 20's we'd all get another 3-4 hrs of frozen-stale air and it's a quick changeover....

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3 minutes ago, snywx said:

 

Ive noticed the HRRR trending cooler each run. I expect some surprises with this storm 

People are too quick to jump ship because they don't look at anything other than simulated radars and clown maps. They are two of the most unreliable weather forecasting tools that are available. 

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