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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

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3k NAM soundings show that most of the atmosphere below 850mb is below freezing and that at the surface it’s only 33 where it’s showing plain rain. That’s even as late as 08z. I would be very hesitant to base a forecast off precip type graphics and clown maps. Yes with a track that tucked in it’s going to warm up but I think it’s after a signifact front end snow/ice event. Especially N&W of the city.

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5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

What part of regionwide refers to my yard?

Because it’s not a non event when most of interior NJ/NY still gets several inches of snow and ice. We’ve had threads for dustings before.

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18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

12z NAM shifted Southeast a good 50 miles or so. Low passes just South of the city.

it will prob make a couple more shifts south and east,anything over 100+miles and we get frozen precip instead of rain keep that in mind. i actually shared a image of the water vapor loop to show what is going on with the last minute shifts.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

3k MAM soundings show that most of the atmosphere below 850mb is below freezing and that at the surface it’s only 33 where it’s showing plain rain. That’s even as late as 08z. I would be very hesitant to base a fotrecast off precip type graphics and clown maps. Yes with a track that tucked in it’s going to warm up but I think it’s after a signifact front end snow/ice event. Especially N&W of the city.

That 3K MAM model is the best! How much milk is it showing for my morning coffee? Seriously though, this board will become less and less readable as GCC takes away more and more of our winter. That’s a prediction you can count on.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

3k MAM soundings show that most of the atmosphere below 850mb is below freezing and that at the surface it’s only 33 where it’s showing plain rain. That’s even as late as 08z. I would be very hesitant to base a fotrecast off precip type graphics and clown maps. Yes with a track that tucked in it’s going to warm up but I think it’s after a signifact front end snow/ice event. Especially N&W of the city.

Couldn’t agree with you more. I have been saying this for days now since the models starting warming.

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So now that it seems decent snows are off the table for most of us here, What time on Sunday are temperatures supposed to start dropping.  I think the flash freeze from the rain soaked ground may be the real story of this storm for the immediate metro area.  

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15 minutes ago, adiabatic13 said:

That 3K MAM model is the best! How much milk is it showing for my morning coffee? Seriously though, this board will become less and less readable as GCC takes away more and more of our winter. That’s a prediction you can count on.

What is GCC? Never mind. Global Climage change.

 

Can we cool it with the acronyms guys?

 

 I mean that in the least offensive non-snarky way 

 

It’s not even a widespread acronym

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16 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah you're right. An inch or two of snow to 1/10" of zr to 1-2" of rain is devastating. 

zr_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.60696a354daa2a9ae2e6b785c66675e2.png

Your frustration is getting the best of you.

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Current temp up to 35 here, I think I can feel pretty confident in saying the chance of frozen here is very minimal. It wouldn't surprise me if the NWS dropped the Winter Weather Advisory for my area.

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Clown maps are for clowns. Look at the soundings which paint a much different story. The low level frontogenisis is nothing to sneeze at and will likely cause the snow to over perform at the onset.

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40 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is why. Pathetic. 1 to 3 for all CT to Boston.

 

namconus_asnowd_neus_13.png

You don't see a Champlain Valley bullseye every day.  Odd that it gets more than the Daks and Greens although they all get buried.

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1 minute ago, Doorman said:

update us please

 

I’m going to have to scale back the 3-6” zone but overall I don’t see huge changes incoming. Waiting to see more of the 12z guidance.

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11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Clown maps are for clowns. Look at the soundings which paint a much different story. The low level frontogenisis is nothing to sneeze at and will likely cause the snow to over perform at the onset.

The problem is most guidance now pushes the majority of it north of the area until 03-04Z.  By then almost everyone would be too warm for anything but sleet freezing rain or rain 

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38 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

3k NAM soundings show that most of the atmosphere below 850mb is below freezing and that at the surface it’s only 33 where it’s showing plain rain. That’s even as late as 08z. I would be very hesitant to base a forecast off precip type graphics and clown maps. Yes with a track that tucked in it’s going to warm up but I think it’s after a signifact front end snow/ice event. Especially N&W of the city.

Where is this?  Your backyard, my backyard? Where are the warm layers and how thick?  If it's above 0C above 850 and below freezing down to the 33F surface that's probably a sleet sounding.  

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Comment from ORH in the NE Forum:

Dewpoint drain is already happening and will continue most of today. I think people who are taking guidance at face value or close to it are going to be somewhat surprised. BOS already down to 13F with single digits filtering down coastline and CT valley in CNE. I've seen this before. 

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23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The problem is most guidance now pushes the majority of it north of the area until 03-04Z.  By then almost everyone would be too warm for anything but sleet freezing rain or rain 

The big snows are off the table for a majority of the region but freezing rain is still a major concern. People at the immediate coast might not care about what happens over the interior but it doesn’t make it a non event for this sub forum which covers a much larger area than NYC and it’s immediate surroundings.

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Temperatures are above freezing for most areas with dews in the upper teens already.

A good indicator that there's no arctic air present.

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Temperatures are above freezing for most areas with dews in the upper teens already.

A good indicator that there's no arctic air present.

Yep... many models had NWNJ in the teens during onset a couple days ago. Doubt we see much. Scaling down to 1/2" - 2" snow total.

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15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Temperatures are above freezing for most areas with dews in the upper teens already.

A good indicator that there's no arctic air present.

exactly-models 3-4 days ago were much colder.  EVen the backside cold is in and out....

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So a couple of things, first as someone mentioned, the cold air drainage is still taking place. You can see how the isobars are moving towards the SW out of New England. That is a sign of CAD. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=16&parm=pmsl

Secondly, look how cold wet bulb temps are. If the precip comes in heavy like most guidance shows it will cool the column.

swbt.gif?1547913704435

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

So a couple of things, first as someone mentioned, the cold air drainage is still taking place. You can see how the isobars are moving towards the SW out of New England. That is a sign of CAD. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=16&parm=pmsl

Secondly, look how cold wet bulb temps are. If the precip comes in heavy like most guidance shows it will cool the column.

swbt.gif?1547913704435

I can attest to that my dew point now down to 20 from 22 about 45 min ago

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with warmth for a few hours tomorrow-left over icing on trees/powerlines/walkways will not be a big deal-sure puddles will freeze but most paved surfaces will dry out-the worst weather comes overnight while most are sleeping

rgem_T2m_neus_29.png

 

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58 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The problem is most guidance now pushes the majority of it north of the area until 03-04Z.  By then almost everyone would be too warm for anything but sleet freezing rain or rain 

The warm push in general looks stronger which I guess also forces the initial overrunning to shoot over most of us too. 

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