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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay
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18.0 here.

This 4.5 inches of concrete white that now encompasses most of Orange County isn't going anywhere for a long time. With a liquid equivalent of at least1.5 inches encased in this snow and sub zero cold tonight and tomorrow night, even the 40 degree temps and rain forecast Wednesday will barely make a dent.

This is much different than 4.5 inches of fluffy white with a LE of a 1/4 inch, much harder to melt this stuff and it's already compressed so that's not even an issue.

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1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

18.0 here.

This 4.5 inches of concrete white that now encompasses most of Orange County isn't going anywhere for a long time. With a liquid equivalent of at least1.5 inches encased in this snow and sub zero cold tonight and tomorrow night, even the 40 degree temps and rain forecast Wednesday will barely make a dent.

This is much different than 4.5 inches of fluffy white with a LE of a 1/4 inch, much harder to melt this stuff and it's already compressed so that's not even an issue.

And the 1" of w.e. precip expected Wed-Thu will probably be absorbed.... and unless gutters are frozen, probably wont be much of a negative factor in that area, at least for the mid week event. 

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A storm that brought significant snow to parts of central and Upstate New York into northern New England is now moving away. A frigid air mass is plunging into the region.

With 1.6" snow through 4 am, Boston has moved above season-to-date snowfall futility levels. Before then, Boston had set record low season-to-date snowfall figures from January 13 through January 19.

Boston01192019.jpg

The SOI was +5.28 today. Nevertheless, it has been negative for 15 out of the last 20 days. The SOI will likely go negative within 4-7 days.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.210. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.059.

On January 19, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.425 (RMM). That amplitude was little changed from the January 18-adjusted figure of 1.442.

Since regular recordkeeping on the MJO began in 1974, there were only three winters when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.000 or above in January and measurable snow was reported in Boston, New York City, or Philadelphia. Those cases were: January 1978, 1994, and 2005. All three winters featured much above normal snowfall afterward.

The MJO will likely continue to advance through Phase 4 and into and into Phases 5 and 6 over the next 3-6 days. Initially, the MJO's amplitude will likely continue to increase, but it appears unlikely that the kind of high amplitudes that characterized late December into the start of January will develop.

With the MJO's likely pushing back toward lower amplitudes and/or into the colder phases near the end of the month, the AO will very likely return to negative values. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in late January. The persistence of such blocking could set the stage for a snowy to perhaps very snowy February in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas.

Following this weekend's storm, there is a risk for two additional storms to impact the region: January 24-25 and January 27-29. The former will likely be a rainstorm. The latter storm could be the bigger and potentially snowy one. Details remain uncertain, but the extent of Atlantic blocking will be important.

The GEFS ensembles continue to show the AO's diving around the January 28 timeframe +/- 1 day much as happened just ahead of the January 2005 blizzard. While a big storm is far from assured, the combination of the MJO's moving into low amplitudes and/or its colder phases, strong to severe blocking rapidly developing, and frigid air lurking in Canada suggests real potential.

The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature for January in the New York City area has continued to increase. That outcome is now somewhat more likely than not despite the very warm start to January.

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Down to 18* now, wind is light out of the NNW and it sounds scary outside. I lost a 60 foot tree in the yard this afternoon because a 30 foot long section of a neighbors tree landed on it and split it down the middle. As they came down they damaged other trees that are now really scary, half of one is leaning towards the house and the other half will probably end up totally tangled in the one that's already down across the yard. I'm hoping that doesn't take out an 80 footer that's about 30 feet from my kids bedroom. It's going to be a long night...

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6 hours ago, gravitylover said:

You're kidding right? I've got trees falling, 2 ton branches falling and a tangled mess of isht in my yard. An 80 footer a few feet from my (dead end) corner went down about 20 minutes ago and is partially blocking the street. It's getting real out there man and people are going to have problems and get hurt especially if the power goes out and we go to 0*.

Seriously. A lot of Connecticut got really messed up by the ice. 

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