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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay
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6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

RS can you or someone else explain to us / me why the line would retreat south, I don't get it ? Thanks in adnvance

 

I'm no expert, but if that new low in eastern va did become the primary and moved n/e toward the benchmark, we would remain on the cold side of the storm and our winds would go to n an n/easterly and the 850's would crash back south eastward and we would be in for a good snowstorm...but unfortunately that is not the case with this system...hope that makes sense to you

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Definitely won't, theres some misinformation going on.
Sorry. Let me clarify as I quickly responded at work. What I meant is that if the LP in VA were to become the primary one, the surge of warm air would become muted. I have not looked at surface analysis and I was going of njwx85 because I trust his analysis. That being said, if the primary remains the primary this will not take place. Apologies, I should have had this caveat before

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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Pretty clear the NAM in particular (ALL Models wayyyy too warm tonight at the sfc ~I80 north) was overzealous on moving the sfc low inside NYC on its 1/19 runs. Now the 00z/20 has much less se BL wind on the FOUS and here is where shallow cold air in the bottom part of the BL prevails.  This I think is going to be dangerous for glaze between 2A-8A somewhere from near I80 interior NJ n to I84.  The good thing ,when temps are sub 23F,  the rain can freeze into ice pellets instead of be a glaze.  Still, do not like the prospects for power in the area stated above at sunrise Sunday.  Fingers crossed that most of the ZR runs off.  Probably my last post of the night both here and the 3.5" on the obs thread. 

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5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Pretty clear the NAM in particular (ALL Models wayyyy too warm tonight at the sfc ~I80 north) was overzealous on moving the sfc low inside NYC on its 1/19 runs. Now the 00z/20 has much less se BL wind on the FOUS and here is where shallow cold air in the bottom part of the BL prevails.  This I think is going to be dangerous for glaze between 2A-8A somewhere from near I80 interior NJ n to I84.  The good thing ,when temps are sub 23F,  the rain can freeze into ice pellets instead of be a glaze.  Still, do not like the prospects for power in the area stated above at sunrise Sunday.  Fingers crossed that most of the ZR runs off.  Probably my last post of the night both here and the 3.5" on the obs thread. 

Wondering if we’ll see any ice storm warnings go up.

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10 minutes ago, snywx said:

Temp continues to slowly drop here... Down to 21.9°

Mod snow continues

3.5" otg

I was 30 when the snow started and bottomed out at 21.6 at about 11PM. It's 21.9 now which is the first rise, although only 0.3 degrees, in temp I've seen since the snow started.

3.3 inches and moderate to heavy snow.

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Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I was 30 when the snow started and bottomed out at 21.6 at about 11PM. It's 21.9 now which is the first rise, although only 0.3 degrees, in temp I've seen since the snow started.

3.3 inches and moderate to heavy snow.

There is an insane temp gradient just south of you. Areas near Suffern are AOA 32° while areas near Tuxedo are in the low 20s. Impressive

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