NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, jfklganyc said: Haha. That Flash Flood Watch is really the fat lady singing for this thread. Or is it the first rain drop? 3-6 2-4 Now 1-3 And there are a whole lot of people south and east of me Maybe you didn't know this but the sub-forum goes a lot further West than Westechester County 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 18z NAM supports the flood watch-wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Good call for those who were saying this would trend north at the end. SWFEs (which this pretty much is) usually do. Even Albany's getting cut back decently on snow amounts and State College is looking like it'll be a low-end warning level event rather than the 14-15" being called yesterday. We may still have the lead on Boston for seasonal snow after this. Might just be wall-to-wall rain for most on Long Island and NYC. Could even have thunder as the cold front comes east-looks like a pretty nasty line with that. Further inland especially around I-287 looks icy still due to the cold drain and NW of there still looks like a good thumping for a while before ice. Two bad trends: the overrunning shooting over us so we waste the cold we currently have and the low trending further amped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Maybe you didn't know this but the sub-forum goes a lot further West than Westechester County 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Maybe you didn't know this but the sub-forum goes a lot further West than Westechester County Southern Westchester at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: 18z NAM supports the flood watch-wow! The frozen ground will worsen the flood threat down here since it won't soak in, and it's a dynamic system that could dump 2"+ rain. The frontal passage could be pretty wicked with thunder. It'll still be a nasty storm despite the cold and snow not happening down here. It's becoming primarily far upstate NY and NNE for the big snow. The SW flow out ahead of this just killed it for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Good call for those who were saying this would trend north at the end. SWFEs (which this pretty much is) usually do. Even Albany's getting cut back decently on snow amounts and State College is looking like it'll be a low-end warning level event rather than the 14-15" being called yesterday. We may still have the lead on Boston for seasonal snow after this. Might just be wall-to-wall rain for most on Long Island and NYC. Could even have thunder as the cold front comes east-looks like a pretty nasty line with that. Further inland especially around I-287 looks icy still due to the cold drain and NW of there still looks like a good thumping for a while before ice. Two bad trends: the overrunning shooting over us so we waste the cold we currently have and the low trending further amped. That’s life. We’ve gotten a lot of events in the past 25 years or so; some have hit some posters really hard (we need a new phrase to take place of “ripping”) while others not so much, but we’ve all gotten some nice snows. This one just harkens back to my childhood. C’est la vie. I just hope no one loses power or has damage from ice. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Haha. That Flash Flood Watch is really the fat lady singing for this thread. Or is it the first rain drop? 3-6 2-4 Now 1-3 And there are a whole lot of people south and east of me The ground is frozen so any rain that falls will run off creating flash floods. If there are a few inches of snow that also melt quickly with rising temps and rain there will be a lot of water running over the surface. It's still below freezing here, never went above today. From what I've had a chance to look at in thinking 6-8 and a change to sleet unless the cold air to my NW stops pressing and allows a quick warm punch into the mid levels then the ice forecast (debacle) happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Wow the 18z NAM is very wet for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: It's a balmy 37/28 right now and way too much salt everywhere. It's so odd how everyone I talked to is expecting some big snowstorm, the media really hyped this up for no reason. I don't know people I talked to casually in the bank etc this morning all seemed to know it was a bust down our way. But there is a state of emergency on, I guess for icing in northern parts of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Ignore surface temperature trends at your own peril. It might not matter for LI and the city but it does for anyone N&W of where the GSP meets the Thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: I don't know people I talked to casually in the bank etc this morning all seemed to know it was a bust down our way. But there is a state of emergency on, I guess for icing in northern parts of the state. The supermarkets were still crazy today down here. A lot of cautious folks after the November surprise snow. But this is one I'm pretty confident will be a washout by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: No offense but this was never really about East of the Hudson River. I thought the city and LI would see a few inches and I still think that possible but that area isn't the main concern. I seem to remember Manhattan was in the game for awhile; my area, just south of there was always on the fringe of a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Ignore surface temperature trends at your own peril. It might not matter for LI and the city but it does for anyone N&W of where the GSP meets the Thruway. I'm still definitely thinking there'll be a zone of nasty icing around I-287 and also maybe I-84 corridor. The cold surface air is pretty stout and while mid level warmth is usually undermodeled, surface cold is usually undermodeled too. Hopefully it's more sleet and less ZR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, jm1220 said: The supermarkets were still crazy today down here. A lot of cautious folks after the November surprise snow. But this is one I'm pretty confident will be a washout by me. even here I doubt we see more than an inch of snow/sleet before it flips.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Wow the 18z NAM is very wet for the area. That could end up being more than people bargained for. The 24 hr temperature whiplash will also be impressive. Could go from 50s to below zero wind-chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: That could end up being more than people bargained for. The 24 hr temperature whiplash will also be impressive. Could go from 50s to below zero wind-chill. Flash freeze certainly a concern tomorrow afternoon IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Flash freeze certainly a concern tomorrow afternoon IMO. hopefully the wind will dry out the roads before we crash below freezing...any standing water will freeze quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 That could end up being more than people bargained for. The 24 hr temperature whiplash will also be impressive. Could go from 50s to below zero wind-chill. Pothole city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 17 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The supermarkets were still crazy today down here. A lot of cautious folks after the November surprise snow. But this is one I'm pretty confident will be a washout by me. In retrospect it should have been obvious, but hope springs eternal. We are getting toward Feb now. Keep hearing things are gonna turn around, but I remember too many winters like this. Never know when below average snow will set in for a few years; seen multiple years without much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: In retrospect it should have been obvious, but hope springs eternal. We are getting toward Feb now. Keep hearing things are gonna turn around, but I remember too many winters like this. Never know when below average snow will set in for a few years; seen multiple years without much. looked great going into this winter, but just cannot catch a break....(so far). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: looked great going into this winter, but just cannot catch a break....(so far). While I am thrilled with the winter so far, I am hesitant to spike the football just yet on a winter denied---things can change quickly and without warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, 495weatherguy said: While I am thrilled with the winter so far, I am hesitant to spike the football just yet on a winter denied---things can change quickly and without warning. as we saw last year..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: as we saw last year..... I recall last year being much better at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said: I recall last year being much better at this point. how so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Mt Holly afternoon afd is calling for a change to all rain by morning even in the Poconos & Sussex county NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said: how so? Well we had a decent storm in early December, a fairly large storm for coastal areas in early January, and an okay event for the interior in mid January. This year we've had little since the November event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, WarrenCtyWx said: Well we had a decent storm in early December, a fairly large storm for coastal areas in early January, and an okay event for the interior in mid January. This year we've had little since the November event. Ok--my memory fails me when it comes to weather. The recall demonstrated by the members is impressive to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 There is enough northly component to the wind here on the uws we will snow. But it’s now coming in like a wall which will cut down on amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 ANYONE have a start time as I am looking at the radar and it is beginning to fill in to my South n West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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