Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 34 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Why so mad? I'm driving two hours due north for 12 to 18 inches of snow. I'd say that is still our region. Going to have to go further than that, and no that's upstate New York. Maybe I should've said subforum instead of region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: The low dew points mean we’ll have room to wet bulb. Correct currently 33/20 now. Went up a degree but dropped 2 degrees in dew point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 29 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Up to 31F. Already smelling like a bust. Dewpoint is at 24 which is good. Was not suppose to be warm this early. Agree. i was outside in a t shirt earlier. I figured it would be around 22f or so out yesterday at this time. Stunning that I had a forecast of near 10 inches of snow yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: with warmth for a few hours tomorrow-left over icing on trees/powerlines/walkways will not be a big deal-sure puddles will freeze but most paved surfaces will dry out-the worst weather comes overnight while most are sleeping There will be icy spots on roads tomorrow night, but no March 1993 type of cementing anywhere close to the coast. Possibly a couple hours of snizzle/ light flurries tomorrow evening before the main temperature plunge happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Looks like some places will surge into the 50s and be down into the teens 8 hours later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The NWS has not changed their story as of 9:48 A.M they sticking with the forecast URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 948 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019 CTZ005-NJZ002-004-103-105-NYZ067>070-192230- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0001.190119T1700Z-190120T2300Z/ Northern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen- Western Essex-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 948 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. The highest snow totals will be across Orange and Putnam counties. Ice accumulations of one tenth to one quarter of an inch are expected. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, interior southwest Connecticut and the lower Hudson Valley in New York. * WHEN...Later this afternoon through 6 PM EST Sunday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Hazardous travel is expected with roads becoming snow and ice covered. Gusty winds, snow, and ice accumulation may bring down tree limbs and power lines. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: The NWS has not changed their story as of 9:48 A.M they sticking with the forecast URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 948 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019 CTZ005-NJZ002-004-103-105-NYZ067>070-192230- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0001.190119T1700Z-190120T2300Z/ Northern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen- Western Essex-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 948 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. The highest snow totals will be across Orange and Putnam counties. Ice accumulations of one tenth to one quarter of an inch are expected. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, interior southwest Connecticut and the lower Hudson Valley in New York. * WHEN...Later this afternoon through 6 PM EST Sunday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Hazardous travel is expected with roads becoming snow and ice covered. Gusty winds, snow, and ice accumulation may bring down tree limbs and power lines. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. I don't blame them for now-let another round of model data come in-otherwise the public gets confused with the back and forth... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: The NWS has not changed their story as of 9:48 A.M they sticking with the forecast URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 948 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019 CTZ005-NJZ002-004-103-105-NYZ067>070-192230- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0001.190119T1700Z-190120T2300Z/ Northern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen- Western Essex-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 948 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. The highest snow totals will be across Orange and Putnam counties. Ice accumulations of one tenth to one quarter of an inch are expected. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, interior southwest Connecticut and the lower Hudson Valley in New York. * WHEN...Later this afternoon through 6 PM EST Sunday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Hazardous travel is expected with roads becoming snow and ice covered. Gusty winds, snow, and ice accumulation may bring down tree limbs and power lines. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. They can't bail now. They'll start backtracking late this afternoon or tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11AM update. Could possibly be my final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 36 here in the city. Not optimistic for any more than an inch of snow/sleet. Maybe we should all go in on building a cabin in the Catskills for next winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Going to have to go further than that, and no that's upstate New York. Maybe I should've said subforum instead of region. I am not going to bicker but take a line from Binghamton thru the Catskills / Albany and thru new New Hampshire for some very high totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: So a couple of things, first as someone mentioned, the cold air drainage is still taking place. You can see how the isobars are moving towards the SW out of New England. That is a sign of CAD. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=16&parm=pmsl Secondly, look how cold wet bulb temps are. If the precip comes in heavy like most guidance shows it will cool the column. Are we safe to assume that we don't have to worry much about ice damage south of about lower Union county? Or do you think there is an outside chance of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Are we safe to assume that we don't have to worry much about ice damage south of about lower Union county? Or do you think there is an outside chance of that? It's safe to say South of 80 doesn't need to worry about ice damage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Dew points are starting to drop nicely... 29/18 here.. Expecting 4-8" IMBY w/ severe icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: 36 here in the city. Not optimistic for any more than an inch of snow/sleet. Maybe we should all go in on building a cabin in the Catskills for next winter. I'm looking in ME personally. But that is for the summer weather and fishing:) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 11AM update. Could possibly be my final call. Much more realistic. I have had my doubts about this storm for NYC East. Long Island was never in the game on this imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Anyone have a Ukie or any other recent Model Guidance = short range ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, snywx said: Dew points are starting to drop nicely... 29/18 here.. Expecting 4-8" IMBY w/ severe icing And my dewpoint here has risen to 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said: And my dewpoint here has risen to 25. That seems high for you considering I am in the LHV and mine is 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'm a little confused with the dewpoint temp. If its dropping, does that mean colder air is draining in, or just drier air or both? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: I'm a little confused with the dewpoint temp. If its dropping, does that mean colder air is draining in, or just drier air or both? If the dewpoint is dropping, it means temps will cool off more when the precip arrives. The air cools as it becomes saturated enough for precip to reach the ground. The drier the air, the more the air cools. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The dewpoint drop is also an indication of the cold dry air funneling down at the surface. See how the isobars over PA are aligned North to South and then bend Eastward once into Virginia? That is where the high is pressing down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, allgame830 said: That seems high for you considering I am in the LHV and mine is 20. Nope, temperature and dewpoint continue to rise here as well. 33f now. Patiently waiting for a drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Dewpoint here in Liberty dropped to 22 degrees from 24 degrees just an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just a tick colder, but significant. Watch the isobars over SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The 12z ICON remains one of the coldest models with temps hanging in the 20's inland after a solid front end dump. This would bring significant icing to a large area, including Rockland, Upper Bergen, Northern Passaic, Sussex, Orange, Ulster, Sullivan, Dutchess, Putnam and into the Poconos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Time to get out my 80s compilation CD. The "Heat is On" is my first track.... . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 36 here with easterly winds. No bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Not that it matters, but my point and click has a high of 31 degrees here forecasted for tomorrow. That is a good indication that they believe the cold air at the surface will stay locked in for the interior. I wouldn't even call where I live the interior as I can see the skyline from my house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 36 with an east wind on the bay in South Wantagh. This ones DOA here. still expecting a couple inches and some sleet on the far UWS. As others have said we will wet bulb during the thump. It’s all about now casting where the precip itself sets up. As of now it looks like it starts snowing north of the city before south so that in itself hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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