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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay
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16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

GFS has been the best with this storm. It has been showing an inland track for days

This is not going inland like the GFS depicts. It will ride ENE just South of the city, and out towards CC. Too close for a frozen event along the coast but Sussex and particularly Orange have no chance of this going to plain rain. Temps will not get out of the 20s with thr Northerly drain. There is a wall of below zero air to our North. To think that a low that's not close to being a bomb at our latitude will cut up into that wall of dense cold is just plain silly regardless of what any model says. There is nothing stopping it from sliding out off NJ and that is what it will do. If anything 12z models will tick a bit South as the cold will overperform to our North. 

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24 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

What a bust, looks like basically an all rain now for the city with highs around 50 tomorrow. Inland will see snow to maybe some ice to rain. All this tracking for this.

The models have shown this for days. They have been surprisingly accurate (if this forecast holds)

There was a poster in this thread questioning ABCs 47 and rain several days ago.

 

It was always there...posters just didnt want to see it.

 

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32 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

This is not going inland like the GFS depicts. It will ride ENE just South of the city, and out towards CC. Too close for a frozen event along the coast but Sussex and particularly Orange have no chance of this going to plain rain. Temps will not get out of the 20s with thr Northerly drain. There is a wall of below zero air to our North. To think that a low that's not close to being a bomb at our latitude will cut up into that wall of dense cold is just plain silly regardless of what any model says. There is nothing stopping it from sliding out off NJ and that is what it will do. If anything 12z models will tick a bit South as the cold will overperform to our North. 

Yes this is a typical 80s storm track, suppression alternating with coastal huggers and big cold in between lol.

 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like 1-3 inches for NYC then rain with a little more for inland areas.

Even NW of the city goes over to rain very quickly on all models now, there’s consensus. Up here, maybe 4 inches of snow if you’re lucky then a changeover. The NAM, RGEM, GFS, FV3, ICON, UKMET, HRDPS, CMC, Euro, WRF-ARW and HRRR are now all remarkably similar 

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Even NW of the city goes over to rain very quickly on all models now, there’s consensus. Up here, maybe 4 inches of snow if you’re lucky then a changeover. The NAM, RGEM, GFS, FV3, ICON, UKMET, HRDPS, CMC, Euro, WRF-ARW and HRRR are now all remarkably similar 

They're even getting depressed in New England (southern part anyway, even inland areas.)

Cant blame them 80s nostalgia is only good for music lol.

So it took to get to within 12 hours before the event for the models to reach consensus? Nice.....

 

 

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8 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Time to get out my 80s compilation CD.  The "Heat is On" is my first track.... 

Ha I posted this with reference to the 80s.

a Billy Joel Classic

https://www.billyjoel.com/song/keeping-faith-7/

‘Cause the good ole days weren’t
Always good
And tomorrow ain’t as bad as it seems

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28 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Plain rain is Sussex by 6pm today?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019011912&fh=20  That’s hour 20, the changeover actually starts at 17 hours in Rockland and Sussex. Total snowfall: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019011912&fh=27

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8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

HRRR still out of range at this time. Much much better within 6 hours of start time.

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1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

The models have shown this for days. They have been surprisingly accurate (if this forecast holds)

There was a poster in this thread questioning ABCs 47 and rain several days ago.

 

It was always there...posters just didnt want to see it.

 

And others accused other posters of "throwing in the towel" too soon when they saw this as a likelihood a few days ago. Some people here need to stop wishcasting and if they do want to wishcast, go ahead and wishcast with some model or climatologic facts and move on ... without the editorial comments towards those who choose to go with what they feel is an accurate forecast (subject to change, of course) that might be light on snow. It's nice to be able to come here and just read and review the analysis from different people. Just my 2 cents.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Guys wait for the 12z guidance before jumping off the roof. Things could easily shift back colder at the last minute.

yeah i was just thinking about the same thing, as this still has the potential to surprise many on here,just saying..skies are already getting cloudy also so i doubt the temp rises much today.

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