HVSnowLover Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 53 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Can we be specific as far as location in terms of what the models are predicting? Agree and from what Ive seen and gather the only places really at risk of no front end snow would be the south shore of LI and maybe the immediate coast of Queens/Brooklyn but even that i'm skeptical of, I think it comes in snow for everyone in NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Agree and from what Ive seen and gather the only places really at risk of no front end snow would be the south shore of LI and maybe the immediate coast of Queens/Brooklyn but even that i'm skeptical of, I think it comes in snow for everyone in NYC/LI Ok I don't know as much as a lot of people here, but I really am doubting, based solely on what I'm reading and seeing here, that this is going to be much to get excited about for most of NJ south of about Union county. I get that this will be a serious event in a lot of other places, but starting to think we are safe down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Actually, most of that "snow" on the NAM (with sleet version) is sleet and as per PW, there's also quite a bit of ZR showing for the sleet-fest areas. Still blows away a cold rain. *shrug* I don't look at the p-type algorithms. I was just going through the forecast soundings hour by hour. Admittedly the distinction between an IP and ZR sounding is muddled sometimes, but I just use my best judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Ok I don't know as much as a lot of people here, but I really am doubting, based solely on what I'm reading and seeing here, that this is going to be much to get excited about for most of NJ south of about Union county. I get that this will be a serious event in a lot of other places, but starting to think we are safe down here. The only possible excitement for most is the possible front end dump with crazy rates, not really expecting a November 15 repeat quite but I do think the potential is there for a a very fast but impressive front end dump especially for northern NYC and points NW. The rest of the storm will be just nasty rain until you get well NW of the city. The icing just never seems to really happen at the coast except in very unusual situations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 45 minutes ago, chrisNJ said: Sorry about that. Don’t post often. No apologies necessary, just helps avoid the questions sure to follow, thats all. The more pics the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 RGEM has the low going through Northern CT and mixing well past Albany. Unfortunately trend is not friendly with this one 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: RGEM has the low going through Northern CT and mixing well past Albany. Unfortunately trend is not friendly with this one Has me about 60 degrees as well here in CNJ. Which all things considered I will take if I am not going to get anything frozen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The NAM is also losing the damming signatures. Winds on the 00Z run for LGA are now mostly 070-090 from 21-06Z where as 12Z they were trying to back to 050-060 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 And the 0Z GFS a bit warmer/wetter that 18Z. As is the 0Z CMC. Snow north of 80 is at risk, now, if these models are correct. If. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The 00z NAM had over an inch of ZR for interior NNJ. Again remember that this storm isn’t about your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, sferic said: That can all change after the 06Z runs I actually went to bed and woke up with a stuffy nose....I think the writing is on the wall already for a lot of us, and one way to tell is the lack of activity here. It's just not looking good for for the city south. Could be a big one in New England, but, well, it's New England. Snow in winter is hardly news there. Maybe the next one will deliver. Hope the ice isn't too bad to our north, really don't wanna see people suffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The warmer trend has increased the threat of ice, instead of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The warmer trend has increased the threat of ice, instead of sleet. When will you release an updated map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The warmer trend has increased the threat of ice, instead of sleet. I am sorry for the folks further north, but I would be lying if I said I wasn't happy that I might see plain rain instead of ice. Fortunately ice storms are not common on the coastal plain. Interior sections get them much more often. This could be a bad setup for them. My BIL said when he was a kid in ME, the schools just didn't close for snow. But they did for ice. and those are diehard New Englanders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, RU848789 said: And the 0Z GFS a bit warmer/wetter that 18Z. As is the 0Z CMC. Snow north of 80 is at risk, now, if these models are correct. If. And the UK track remains the same, so it'll likely show a repeat of the small snow accumulations for the 95 corridor, plus the Euro went slightly warmer/wetter again - in fact, it registered a Blutarskyesque 0.0" of snow from Trenton to NYC. Ouch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Yeeesh at the Euro. Hard to discount the warmer models tonight. Maybe an inch of slush to soaking rain on the south shore where I'll be this weekend, to an arctic freeze on Monday. This storm definitely looks like a sledgehammer climo reminder. Hopefully my old stomping grounds in State College do well for a change and the sleet can be held off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 13 hours ago, RU848789 said: Given WPC declaration of the 12Z NAM being an outlier (now confirmed with the Euro remaining warm/wet), I'd be surprised if the NWS doesn't drop the winter storm watches from the southernmost counties under them right now, like Upper Montco/Bucks and Hunterdon/Somerset from the NWS-Mt. Holly and Union/Essex (maybe)/Hudson/NYC/LI from the NWS-NYC. I could see those locations getting winter weather advisories, since some snow/sleet is still being modeled (a few inches not up to 6"). The next tier N and W might stay watches or could be converted to warnings if they have high confidence in getting to 6" for most of their areas. Or maybe they have different assumptions and they won't budge (or at least not yet), since it's not only about models (they do have access to advanced data analysis and diagnostics tools that the public does not). Just my opinion... So, obviously, the NWS didn't budge from their bullish forecast after the 12Z models for reasons they did explain, despite all of the models, except the 12Z NAM, showing markedly warmer and less snowy solutions, with none of them showing more than 1-2" from Trenton to NYC and most of them showing no snow for that corridor, as well as most of them not showing warning criteria snows in their southern tier of counties with watches. I can understand that, given the uncertainty in forecasting and wanting to maintain continuity and not be seen as flip-flopping with the models. However, given the significant further reductions in modeled snowfall from all the major globals and mesoscale 0Z models that I saw (vs. 12Z), I wonder if they'll reduce their snowfall forecasts for most of their areas (especially near/along 95) and scale back those southern tier counties that now have watches to advisories (Upper Bucks/Montco, Hunterdon/Somerset and Union/Hudson/NYC/LI). Only the 0Z NAM still has warning level snow (snow + sleet all counted as 10:1 snow, really) modeled for these counties (or at least parts of them) with 1 or 2 other models (UK/FV3) showing the far northern parts of some of these counties with close to 6", while the Euro, GFS, CMC, HRDPS and RGEM all show all of these counties with much less than warning criteria snows. It would certainly look odd if they didn't, at least to me, and I've heard other mets wondering the same thing. I'd also probably add Middlesex, Mercer and lower Bucks/Montco to the Advisory list, even though no models show advisory snow/sleet for those counties, overall, but it wouldn't take a big shift SE or stronger CAD to get them into advisory criteria. I'm not trying to "bash" the NWS, as I'm usually one of their biggest fans, but that doesn't mean they can't be questioned. I also find it fun to try guess what they're going to do next. I guess we'll see in about 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Agree and from what Ive seen and gather the only places really at risk of no front end snow would be the south shore of LI and maybe the immediate coast of Queens/Brooklyn but even that i'm skeptical of, I think it comes in snow for everyone in NYC/LI yes but its meaningless because it gets washed away in a few min so I'd rather have a pure rainstorm (I had the same philosophy back in the 80s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect here from 1 pm today until 1 pm Sunday afternoon for up to 2" of snow and a light glaze of ice. I am actually a bit surprised by the amount of time the advisory is in effect but not the advisory itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, ru848789 said: So, obviously, the NWS didn't budge from their bullish forecast after the 12Z models for reasons they did explain, despite all of the models, except the 12Z NAM, showing markedly warmer and less snowy solutions, with none of them showing more than 1-2" from Trenton to NYC and most of them showing no snow for that corridor, as well as most of them not showing warning criteria snows in their southern tier of counties with watches. I can understand that, given the uncertainty in forecasting and wanting to maintain continuity and not be seen as flip-flopping with the models. However, given the significant further reductions in modeled snowfall from all the major globals and mesoscale 0Z models that I saw (vs. 12Z), I wonder if they'll reduce their snowfall forecasts for most of their areas (especially near/along 95) and scale back those southern tier counties that now have watches to advisories (Upper Bucks/Montco, Hunterdon/Somerset and Union/Hudson/NYC/LI). Only the 0Z NAM still has warning level snow (snow + sleet all counted as 10:1 snow, really) modeled for these counties (or at least parts of them) with 1 or 2 other models (UK/FV3) showing the far northern parts of some of these counties with close to 6", while the Euro, GFS, CMC, HRDPS and RGEM all show all of these counties with much less than warning criteria snows. It would certainly look odd if they didn't, at least to me, and I've heard other mets wondering the same thing. I'd also probably add Middlesex, Mercer and lower Bucks/Montco to the Advisory list, even though no models show advisory snow/sleet for those counties, overall, but it wouldn't take a big shift SE or stronger CAD to get them into advisory criteria. 'm not trying to "bash" the NWS, as I'm usually one of their biggest fans, but that doesn't mean they can't be questioned. I also find it fun to try guess what they're going to do next. I guess we'll see in about 2 hours. Hey, I came close. NWS did scale back snowfall predictions, substantially, and converted that southern tier of watches to advisories for Upper Bucks/Montco, Hunterdon/Somerset and Union/Essex/Hudson and NYC/LI for a general 1-3"/2-4" of snow and a llight glaze of freezing rain, followed by 1-1.5" of plain rain as temps go above 32F, which should wash away any frozen precip, leaving minimal flash freeze risks (just puddles). I''m still concerned we get almost no frozen precip in this Advisory tier, including my house, given the model outputs showing that, but we'll have to wait and see. They also retained warnings for all the counties that had warnings, but didn't add lower Bucks/Montco and Mercer, to the advisory list, however. The warning areas should have a wild mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain (for the southernmost warned counties; the ones further north might not see any plain rain) - all of these locations will likely have significant slushpack when it's all done around noon tomorrow, which will flash freeze by late afternpon, as temps drop like a rock into the single digits by overnight and struggle to hit 15F on Monday. They're predicting <1" for areas SE of 95 in CNJ and for near and just S of 276/195 (but zero is a good possibility), with all rain predicted at the coast. See the new maps below - still waiting on the NWS-NYC maps. Could still be some surprises with this storm. Stay tuned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 My call is for 4 inches on Central Park 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Looks like 1-3 inches for NYC then rain with a little more for inland areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 At first look in my local area. nam & gfs indicate 1-5-1.75 of qpf. nws forecast is for around 5-6 of snow. glaze just under 0.2 that would translate to around 0.9 to 1.0 of qpf. curious if the remainder of the qpf is sleet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Looks like 1-3 inches for NYC then rain with a little more for inland areas. Yea May have some decent puddles in the city tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, Animal said: At first look in my local area. nam & gfs indicate 1-5-1.75 of qpf. nws forecast is for around 5-6 of snow. glaze just under 0.2 that would translate to around 0.9 to 1.0 of qpf. curious if the remainder of the qpf is sleet. Temperatures by us are not forecast to get out of the 20's for duration of the storm. Hope we don't get alot of ice. I don't mind snow and sleet. Ice sucks. I lose power to easy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Temperatures by us are not forecast to get out of the 20's for duration of the storm. Hope we don't get alot of ice. I don't mind snow and sleet. Ice sucks. I lose power to easy here. Will be an interesting storm to Watch unfold. some location is likely to get hard with freezing rain. Hoping it is down near I 80 & not our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Animal said: Will be an interesting storm to Watch unfold. some location is likely to get hard with freezing rain. Hoping it is down near I 80 & not our area. Maybe we can luck out and get mostly snow and sleet, and the zr will be just light drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 GFS has been the best with this storm. It has been showing an inland track for days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GFS has been the best with this storm. It has been showing an inland track for days As far as the location where the Low is right now is it where the GFS said it would be at this time ? Did any model have it close or near its current location ? I guess I could ask the same question as far as the temps right now ,,,,,thanks in advance for any answers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 What a bust, looks like basically an all rain now for the city with highs around 50 tomorrow. Inland will see snow to maybe some ice to rain. All this tracking for this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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