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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay
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28 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

The only part of the coast that I can see starting as rain is the Jersey shore..... I highly doubt the south shore of LI does. 

The Euro really drags its heels getting precip in.  To be honest that’s a big reason it’s snow totals are so darn low.  Not necessarily that it’s a ton west or north of the NAM because it isn’t.  If no steady precip gets in til 01-02Z then most places near the coast probably to sleet and freezing rain almost right away 

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14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro really drags its heels getting precip in.  To be honest that’s a big reason it’s snow totals are so darn low.  Not necessarily that it’s a ton west or north of the NAM because it isn’t.  If no steady precip gets in til 01-02Z then most places near the coast probably to sleet and freezing rain almost right away 

Ahh gotcha. Makes sense. If we can start by 5pm. I would think the City and western portions of LI would do OK. 

@SnowGoose69 what’s your feeling for Northern Westchester? Stay all frozen or nah? Possible 6”?

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2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Ahh gotcha. Makes sense. If we can start by 5pm. I would think the City and western portions of LI would do OK. 

@SnowGoose69 what’s your feeling for Northern Westchester? Stay all frozen or nah? Possible 6”?

I think they stay all frozen outside of coastal southern parts and yes 6 inches definitely possible northern half 

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The time frame of 10pm-1am, Saturday night/Sunday is when we will know if the models are right or wrong on a NYC changeover to something other than snow.    Even the early snow thump requires a setup like we saw on Nov. 15, as the 2mT and DP are 6 degs. apart early on, with the 2mT not even at 32 for certain.    On  Nov. 15 I went from 37 to 32 and back to 37 in a matter of hours.

Btw:   The EURO has the 500mb Heights going from 300m BN, to 120m AN in just 48hrs. in the post storm period.

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4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Can we be specific as far as location in terms of what the models are predicting? 

Yes I updated to mention Long Island, some precipitation in the city. Although someone commented that HRRR shouldn’t be looked at atm

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15 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I hear NAM is warm, don't have maps 

I don't think it's a bad solution for our latitude. All snow and sleet, avoiding rain (freezing or otherwise). It goes without saying that snowfall rates will be prodigious prior to mixing, even with suboptimal snow growth, so every hour counts. The first pingers falling at 2 vs. 4 am could be the difference between 6" and 9".

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3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I don't think it's a bad solution for our latitude. All snow and sleet, avoiding rain (freezing or otherwise). It goes without saying that snowfall rates will be prodigious prior to mixing, even with suboptimal snow growth, so every hour counts. The first pingers falling at 2 vs. 4 am could be the difference between 6" and 9".

In my experience, the pingers usually start earlier than predicted almost every time.  Hoping tomorrow will be an exception.  Regardless, should be fun to track and watch unfold. 

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Not meaning to impart bias or disregard analysis thusfar, I have no preference and will take whatever the atmosphere gives us because I have no choice.  Just wanted to say the sensible weather impacting millions of people depends upon some very thin temperature lines over just a few miles.  Looks like the ultimate nowcast.  Stay off the roads, wherever you are.  I wouldn't wager any amount of snow or ice for anyone right now in the Metro.  If you want to bet on rain and drive around, godspeed to you.

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6 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Not meaning to impart bias or disregard analysis thusfar, I have no preference and will take whatever the atmosphere gives us because I have no choice.  Just wanted to say the sensible weather impacting millions of people depends upon some very thin temperature lines over just a few miles.  Looks like the ultimate nowcast.  Stay off the roads, wherever you are.  I wouldn't wager any amount of snow or ice for anyone right now in the Metro.  If you want to bet on rain and drive around, godspeed to you.

Some people have no choice, my daughter will be on a bus from DC at 4pm. I am really rooting for all rain on this one, anyway maps show me with no more than 3 at best; if the icing can hold off til later, great. Maybe we don't even see any ice down my way ( southern tip of SI area )

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14 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I don't think it's a bad solution for our latitude. All snow and sleet, avoiding rain (freezing or otherwise). It goes without saying that snowfall rates will be prodigious prior to mixing, even with suboptimal snow growth, so every hour counts. The first pingers falling at 2 vs. 4 am could be the difference between 6" and 9".

Actually, most of that "snow" on the NAM (with sleet version) is sleet and as per PW, there's also quite a bit of ZR showing for the sleet-fest areas.  Still blows away a cold rain.  

zr_acc.us_ne.png

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