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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay
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Just now, jm1220 said:

Wasn't enthused by this one near the coast yesterday and aren't now. My call is the south shore getting up to a couple of inches before a washout, the north shore and northern NYC maybe a few inches and sleet before rain, and 6"+ starting west of the Tappan Zee Bridge, north of I-80 in NJ and inland CT. There it snows for a while before sleet and then icing. The signs are pointing fairly strongly towards the typical N/W favored storm that washes away any snow from the city and east/south. Perhaps a nasty flash freeze areawide though as it exits and drops the arctic hammer.

We can hope. Not a fan of ice. 

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Strange forecast. Nothing shows that. Even if CAD hangs on it's still warm aloft and liquid falling.
Don't be so defensive brother, we know where you stand. If you are correct, I will be happy to publically congratulate you. Likewise you have been steadfast with your forecast, and that's admirable. At this point, we can all agree to disagree and see what happens.

(for the record, take the tone as friendly. I hate how tone can be misinterpreted via text)

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said:

Oh no? Comes in as 37° rain for NYC, ends as freezing drizzle. 

I don’t think Central Park goes above 32 tomorrow. At least until the precipitation moves in. I’m just making this call from my weather observation skills. I may be wrong but I think we wetbulb to about 30 degrees tomorrow evening when it initially snows and it’ll come in like a wall before any apparent change over to mix and rain. This could be a freezing rain type of deal too the models are not 100% not even at this range. But it does look like 3-6 for Central Park.

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It starts NYC off at 37F before the storm and ends at below zero. Yeah that's gonna be a no for me dawg. 

You're not gonna start higher than 31/32F especially if you're wet bulbing. 

Dew points are going to be low. Precip should start as snow.

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This storm is going to be very close for the area. I can see it go either way in regards to snow.

My rule of thumb is to err on the side of less snow, and it has usually been correct. We just don't live in a snow magnet. I would be more surprised to see 3-5 than to see all rain. Of course, I was wrong in Nov.

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2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

In all fairness Eric I don't think the NWS made it up and they are privy to models and info that we don't see. I mean if anything you would think the NWS would down play this IMO. 

More than just that.  We read models.  In theory they use models.  Doesn't mean they aren't off now and then, but there are people with the job title of "forecaster".  Not aware of any job reqs for "model reader".

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