hudsonvalley21 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z NAM is further South The 1024 and the 1022 lines shifted further south on the 18z run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM snow depth change map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM 3k seems to be the coldest of all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 hours ago, RU848789 said: Given WPC declaration of the 12Z NAM being an outlier (now confirmed with the Euro remaining warm/wet), I'd be surprised if the NWS doesn't drop the winter storm watches from the southernmost counties under them right now, like Upper Montco/Bucks and Hunterdon/Somerset from the NWS-Mt. Holly and Union/Essex (maybe)/Hudson/NYC/LI from the NWS-NYC. I could see those locations getting winter weather advisories, since some snow/sleet is still being modeled (a few inches not up to 6"). The next tier N and W might stay watches or could be converted to warnings if they have high confidence in getting to 6" for most of their areas. Or maybe they have different assumptions and they won't budge (or at least not yet), since it's not only about models (they do have access to advanced data analysis and diagnostics tools that the public does not). Just my opinion... Completely wrong on my part. I must say, I was questioning them strongly for 24 hours before 11/15, as they were ignoring the snowy models then and took too long to adjust and I'm afraid they're in store for that again. But they're the pros and I'm not... https://www.weather.gov/PHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Warning here for 6-10” and some ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It appears the nam is showing a little more on the backend Sunday morning vs the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: Warning here for 6-10” and some ice. Same here for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: Warning here for 6-10” and some ice. NJ I am not too far from you in New City,,,,was that 6 -10 just recently upped or posted for your area ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 and just like that 6 - 10 warning here by me as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 still under a watch, point and click has 3-7” 0.1” of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 IMBY (Wayne): New ice accumulation of around a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 RGEM is south again but it’s been so darn far north that it doesn’t make much of a difference. It probably gives Harlem and the Bronx more snow but is still primarily rain for queens and Brooklyn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: RGEM is south again but it’s been so darn far north that it doesn’t make much of a difference. It probably gives Harlem and the Bronx more snow but is still primarily rain for queens and Brooklyn Seems legit. Hoping for an inch before the washout. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 ICON like everything else is a rainstorm, however it puts NYC well below 0 Monday morning . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: ICON like everything else is a rainstorm, however it puts NYC well below 0 Monday morning . Are you referring to New York City in and of itself in a rainstorm, or also the suburbs? Just making sure, since there's a lot of conflicting information. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: ICON like everything else is a rainstorm, however it puts NYC well below 0 Monday morning . Due to the snowpack to the north there is a slight chance but we are too far out. Right now 850s are a bit short of what is needed but it’s doable sometimes in those instances if either a snowpack is in place or in this case a massive snowpack is located to the north. Timing of coldest air is also right near sunrise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, North and West said: Are you referring to New York City in and of itself in a rainstorm, or also the suburbs? Just making sure, since there's a lot of conflicting information. Thanks! Yeah, but most of the sub forum is basically a rainstorm after a bit of snow. I believe you're going to have to go all the way to west Milford for any appreciable snow/ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: ICON like everything else is a rainstorm, however it puts NYC well below 0 Monday morning . Icon isn't a rainstorm. Snow to rain or sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, but most of the sub forum is basically a rainstorm after a bit of snow. I believe you're going to have to go all the way to west Milford for any appreciable snow/ice. I agree Let's hope the models are unestimating the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Icon isn't a rainstorm Oh no? Comes in as 37° rain for NYC, ends as freezing drizzle. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, but most of the sub forum is basically a rainstorm after a bit of snow. I believe you're going to have to go all the way to west Milford for any appreciable snow/ice. Thanks. At this stage in my life, I'm most concerned about losing power. Give me either snow or rain; ice will knock out the heat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 47 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Completely wrong on my part. I must say, I was questioning them strongly for 24 hours before 11/15, as they were ignoring the snowy models then and took too long to adjust and I'm afraid they're in store for that again. But they're the pros and I'm not... https://www.weather.gov/PHI Wonder how much of it is them being gun-shy from the Nov debacle and erring on the side of caution. I prefer accuracy over risk management. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Oh no? Comes in as 37° rain for NYC, ends as freezing drizzle. I think we got it. From now on you can say It Gon Rain and move on. I have no idea why you need to post how NYC will see a driving rainstorm every five minutes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NWS-Upton's latest snowfall forecast: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 BREAKING: Gov. Murphy declares a State of Emergency ahead of Winter Storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6-10 for near suburbs, never getting above freezing per NWS, strange rainstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: NWS-Upton's latest snowfall forecast: Not too bad. The only model really showing that possibly for NYC is the 3 and 12K NAM but 5 is attainable with any sort of banding or if snow arrives early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 30 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Oh no? Comes in as 37° rain for NYC, ends as freezing drizzle. Oh yea because we all trust the ICON... dude seriously all you have done the past day is post when a model showed anything other then frozen pecip. No way NYC is 37 at the start not even close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wasn't enthused by this one near the coast yesterday and aren't now. My call is the south shore getting up to a couple of inches before a washout, the north shore and northern NYC maybe a few inches and sleet before rain, and 6"+ starting west of the Tappan Zee Bridge, north of I-80 in NJ and inland CT. There it snows for a while before sleet and then icing. The signs are pointing fairly strongly towards the typical N/W favored storm that washes away any snow from the city and east/south. Perhaps a nasty flash freeze areawide though as it exits and drops the arctic hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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