NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Basically it gets to SE PA then scoots east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 40 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Someone notify upton that their forecast is wrong, only 1” expected now. Ha. And on queue TWC just dropped me from 5 to 8 to 1 to 3! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 why are the gfs models even being looked at? The NAM is deadly at this range and combined with the Euro pretty much tells the story. The GFS is way too warm and MT Holly has indicated that by extending their winter storm watches further SE. The biggest issue is the transition period and how long and that will not be determined until Sat morning runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Ha. And on queue TWC just dropped me from 5 to 8 to 1 to 3! 3 would be a huge win here....I'm thinking 1-2 and then some ice and maybe ending as a cold rain with temps around 33-34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: 3 would be a huge win here....I'm thinking 1-2 and then some ice and maybe ending as a cold rain with temps around 33-34 That's my guess also unless the snow comes in like a wall and the cold overperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: WPC going with non-NAM solution 12z. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Where's the "hate" button, lol. The 12Z NAM is the last best hope of WWW's everywhere... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The NSSL convection-allowing models and some other hi-res guidance show the potential for icing throughout most of the city even if the warm front makes it to central NJ. This is not necessarily in their wheelhouse yet, but I think it's a good illustration of how low-level cold hangs tough directly north of the surface front. This is the warmest panel on the 12Z NSSL WRF, which gets the freezing line to JFK for an hour and then rapidly brings temps down into the 20s by 12Z Sunday. Given that the heaviest precip will be around during this period, it will be important to see if the globals correct S/E in the next 24 hours or if the CAMs trend north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: The NSSL convection-allowing models and some other hi-res guidance show the potential for icing throughout most of the city even if the warm front makes it to central NJ. This is not necessarily in their wheelhouse yet, but I think it's a good illustration of how low-level cold hangs tough directly north of the surface front. This is the warmest panel on the 12Z NSSL WRF, which gets the freezing line to JFK for an hour and then rapidly brings temps down into the 20s by 12Z Sunday. Given that the heaviest precip will be around during this period, it will be important to see if the globals correct S/E in the next 24 hours or if the CAMs trend north. This model seems much colder than any other by a lot in terms of surface temps.. Is it accurate? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: This model seems much colder than any other by a lot in terms of surface temps.. Is it accurate? It's doing well with the incoming air mass, currently located N of the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: It's doing well with the incoming air mass, currently located N of the Great Lakes. Its 5 degrees too cold for current OBS in the NYC area. I am sitting at 39 here in Nassau. Has me at 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Its 5 degrees too cold for current OBS in the NYC area. I am sitting at 39 here in Nassau. Has me at 34 fair point. if you apply that bias and assume it holds for the event, northern and western parts of the metro still would see predominantly pellets and then freezing rain (after the evening snow) before precip ends. again it's important to watch trends w/ that air mass once it comes into the NE tonight/tomorrow. even today no one model has this pegged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 what do you guys think for islip airport? is it possible for a 3-6" type event here early tomorrow night before the changeover if this snow comes in like a wall and dumps 1-2" an hour rates for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, mikem81 said: This model seems much colder than any other by a lot in terms of surface temps.. Is it accurate? meant to reply to purdue, sorry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Its 5 degrees too cold for current OBS in the NYC area. I am sitting at 39 here in Nassau. Has me at 34 Down here in SE PA it's the only model that has nailed the temps. Everyone else had us in the low 40's, we're currently at 33. PHL currently at 35. Doubt we get our projected highs with the heavy cloud cover in place and this is the only model that has absolutely nailed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 27 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: The NSSL convection-allowing models and some other hi-res guidance show the potential for icing throughout most of the city even if the warm front makes it to central NJ. This is not necessarily in their wheelhouse yet, but I think it's a good illustration of how low-level cold hangs tough directly north of the surface front. This is the warmest panel on the 12Z NSSL WRF, which gets the freezing line to JFK for an hour and then rapidly brings temps down into the 20s by 12Z Sunday. Given that the heaviest precip will be around during this period, it will be important to see if the globals correct S/E in the next 24 hours or if the CAMs trend north. Awesome point, thanks! Question for you: obviously, meteorologists, especially those in the local NWS offices, know a lot more about meteorology (and sometimes their areas) than the vast majority of non-pros who post here and elsewhere and that we should assume that they're not just basing their forecasts on model output or even consensus model output. Do I have that right? I assume that what you just posted and presumably many other diagnostic and data analysis tools either aren't available or are rarely used by most posters on weather boards and that it's safe to assume the NWS and other pros have a lot more at their disposal when making a forecasts. #hopingtheNWSiscorrect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, RU848789 said: Awesome point, thanks! Question for you: obviously, meteorologists, especially those in the local NWS offices, know a lot more about meteorology (and sometimes their areas) than the vast majority of non-pros who post here and elsewhere and that we should assume that they're not just basing their forecasts on model output or even consensus model output. Do I have that right? I assume that what you just posted and presumably many other diagnostic and data analysis tools either aren't available or are rarely used by most posters on weather boards and that it's safe to assume the NWS and other pros have a lot more at their disposal when making a forecasts. #hopingtheNWSiscorrect... Yes, there are a number of tools and in-house models available to both private sector and NWS mets that the public doesn't have access to. Local knowledge is important, but understanding model biases is just as important. Probabilistic guidance is becoming an increasingly used tool to support decision making. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 EURO looks to go right over NYC. Likely pretty warm aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Interestingly, 3KM NAM shows winds in NYC and LI stay NE for the duration of the event, so temps stay 32-34. We'll see what happens but it wouldn't take much to turn this into a nasty ice storm with a NAM track. Slightly lower wetbulb in the source airmass and everyone NYC north is in business for ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: EURO looks to go right over NYC. Likely pretty warm aloft ugly-that probably flips many city, nearby city and S and E to plain rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Compared to 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 If you go with a NAM/Euro blend on surface temps you max out right around 33-34 in the city and immediate coast and in the upper 20's inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 20 degree temp gradient on the euro b/w CT and LI wow...mid to upper 50's just south of NYC into NJ/PA and Long Island for a time Sunday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: WPC going with non-NAM solution 12z. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Given WPC declaration of the 12Z NAM being an outlier (now confirmed with the Euro remaining warm/wet), I'd be surprised if the NWS doesn't drop the winter storm watches from the southernmost counties under them right now, like Upper Montco/Bucks and Hunterdon/Somerset from the NWS-Mt. Holly and Union/Essex (maybe)/Hudson/NYC/LI from the NWS-NYC. I could see those locations getting winter weather advisories, since some snow/sleet is still being modeled (a few inches not up to 6"). The next tier N and W might stay watches or could be converted to warnings if they have high confidence in getting to 6" for most of their areas. Or maybe they have different assumptions and they won't budge (or at least not yet), since it's not only about models (they do have access to advanced data analysis and diagnostics tools that the public does not). Just my opinion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Starting tonight, I will be watching how real time observations upstream may match or not match model data projections to better predict accuracy. Actually, that has already begun to be discussed I believe. Regardless of what the models say now, it is soon game time and we watch play by play. Time soon for the mesos to chime in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Let me say this... Those of you who may miss out on big snow this time, the winter storm parade is just getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 http://hp6.wright-weather.com/eastnmm.shtml this model looks like the nam not sure the name of it... wrf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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