The Iceman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Second guess Pretty good map. Agree with most of it. Would probably throw out that 2-4" range and just put it all as 1-4". Can see that area changing quickly over to rain as well with recent modeling trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Finished up with 3/4" here. Is there somewhere else this little storm is being discussed? kind of a carbon copy of the last one earlier in the month - I am leaning for the weekend to be somewhat of a carbon copy at least around the immediate metro area of the November storm - only difference is the arctic outbreak immediately following this weekends storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Second guess Very nice map yanks. You can adjust those numbers as u get closer if the models trend any colder. Good job 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Based on the Mt Holly discussion which I agree upon, the 12-18" amount is 50 miles off ( too far north) and should be placed through Carbon County and the 8-14" amount through Lehigh County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: Do your best to clean up whatever mixed precipitation types your location has on the ground Sunday. Anything left on the ground that is in liquid form will freeze up solid. Single digits Monday near the coast with below 0 interior. Good reminder. Get gas today, too, in case there's a lot of freezing rain and power goes out. Pumps won't work sans electricity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, Albedoman said: Based on the Mt Holly discussion which I agree upon, the 12-18" amount is 50 miles off ( too far north) and should be placed through Carbon County and the 8-14" amount through Lehigh County Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, North and West said: Good reminder. Get gas today, too, in case there's a lot of freezing rain and power goes out. Pumps won't work sans electricity. Get a propane generator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I am speaking as an emergency manager right now. Anyone who is in the path of this ice storm, you must prepare. There is the possibility of over 1" of ice somewhere and any of you in the potential path of this must be ready. To do so I suggest Fill up you gas tanks. Be prepared to be without heat, hot water and electricity for up to two weeksFill up on bottles water and keep it some place interior and insulated so it does not freeze. If you lose heat.. Keep the water running to prevent frozen pipes (at least during the initial after freeze) If the house becomes too cold, use a vehicle for heat. Run it for ten to fifteen min and warm up. Then shut off for thirty min. Continue this cycle as necessary. Ensure you are not enclosed in your garage (Carbon Monoxide kills). Be prepared to not be able to travel for several days. Ensure you have an adequate supply of medication. Keep your cellular phone charged and use it sparingly when there is no electricity. You can use your vehicle to charge your phone. Have warm clothes handy. This is a potentially disastrous situation. Please remain vigilant, you and you alone are responsible for your safety. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone31 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, NycStormChaser said: Agreed I'm right on the 4-6/6-8 line on route 80, guessing this will be the freezing rain battleground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3k NAM soundings show a nasty ZR profile from around I—78 up to about where 287 crosses Rt 23. NW of that is more of a sleet look. Worst of it is from about 06z to 14z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This is looking like 1-3 inches for the City followed by very brief sleet/Fr rain and then about an inch of rain all done by Sunday at noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Good Friday morning mets, weather enthusiasts et al, Several images, all produced by the NWS ~4-5A today. Some are experimental. 1) prob for 12+ ...probability legend coded...orange 80% prob 12+. WPC 2) prob for >.10 glaze. Probability legend coded. Only 40-50%. Probably in part due to excessive runoff of heavy zr, when/if it occurs, and also it could be sleet. It's a statistical probability. WPC 3) collaborated snowfall forecast of multiple WFO's. NWS 4) Experimental IMPACT graphics, based on WFO collaboration of snow and ice. NWS The following calendar day cold -Monday 1/19/19 - MLK Bday - imo, is going to be our coldest since 1/17/09. I think that adds to the overall impact but is not accounted for in these graphics. Later, Walt Walt - great stuff, as always, thanks! Have to ask, though - where did you get that awesome snowfall map showing a lot more than just the PHI CWA? I don't see it on the NWS page or the NWS FB page. I communicate a lot of winter weather info to lots of people on FB another non-weather message board (on RU sports oddly enough) and by email to several hundred people at work and friends/family, so I almost always include the snowfall maps from PHI and OKX, but this one is good enough to use by itself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 How are the SREF's looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Walt - great stuff, as always, thanks! Have to ask, though - where did you get that awesome snowfall map showing a lot more than just the PHI CWA? I don't see it on the NWS page or the NWS FB page. I communicate a lot of winter weather info to lots of people on FB another non-weather message board (on RU sports oddly enough) and by email to several hundred people at work and friends/family, so I almost always include the snowfall maps from PHI and OKX, but this one is good enough to use by itself. Upton - http://www.weather.gov/erh/gis_wfo?id=OKX Mt Holly - http://www.weather.gov/erh/gis_wfo?id=PHI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: Do your best to clean up whatever mixed precipitation types your location has on the ground Sunday. Anything left on the ground will freeze up solid like cement. Single digits Monday near the coast with below 0 interior. Things will probably dry up before the temperatures tank unless you're well north & west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, North and West said: Good reminder. Get gas today, too, in case there's a lot of freezing rain and power goes out. Pumps won't work sans electricity. Most gas stations have generators after Sandy down here. Regardless, filling up is smart ahead of any storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Upton - http://www.weather.gov/erh/gis_wfo?id=OKX Mt Holly - http://www.weather.gov/erh/gis_wfo?id=PHI Thanks, although those maps are housed on the Eastern Region website. Can't imagine why they wouldn't also be on or linked from each office's winter weather page, which is where most people go to find such information. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Most gas stations have generators after Sandy down here. Regardless, filling up is smart ahead of any storm. Right, and they're usually packed with desperate people after a storm, and the cold and icy conditions may hinder replenishment tankers in case they run out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS cut totals for coasties again. Better than ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Gfs showing an all rain event for most of the area. Gets the city into the 50s now on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS cut totals for coasties again. Better than ice! the GFS is highly suspect IMO - check out the 2M temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, psv88 said: TY. First one of those ive ever seen for the whole NE I've been posting them for days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: I think this storm is a nightmare to forecast especially around NYC and the immediate suburbs - a shift of a few miles in track or temps at various levels can be the difference between various precip types . Anyone who thinks they have this forecast fiqured out should be careful. Models are struggling with this set up. Mt Holly agrees in their afd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Gfs showing an all rain event for most of the area. Gets the city into the upper 40s now on Sunday. Ski I could be mistaken but is the GFS to be trusted with TEMPS as I have heard people say and post "its bad with thermals " ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 CMC now cuts over CT as well lol no big deal for us really seeing as we still get front end snow and just avoid the crippling ice, but our friends up north may not appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Ski I could be mistaken but is the GFS to be trusted with TEMPS as I have heard people say and post "its bad with thermals " ? Gfs has been too warm with winter storms for over a year now. But if the low goes to the north of us then yes it would get rather warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said: CMC now cuts over CT as well lol no big deal for us really seeing as we still get front end snow and just avoid the crippling ice, but our friends up north may not appreciate it. starting to look like we'll dry out too after the storm passes-flash freeze potential is drying up (pun intended) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Gfs showing an all rain event for most of the area. Gets the city into the upper 40s now on Sunday. The freezing line so far northwest ? 50's up to the city ? Good Luck BUT I have seen this happen before just before a flash freeze back in 94 -caused a lot of problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Balmy on the RGEM at 12Z Sunday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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