Brasiluvsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Well it appears to me that most of the overnight guidance went colder or at least South but the Euro went way North and warm-----as of this morning what other Models are in the the Euros camp so to speak ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Also added as for what its worth... graphics NOHRSC snow depth and departure from normal this morning. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 26 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Well it appears to me that most of the overnight guidance went colder or at least South but the Euro went way North and warm-----as of this morning what other Models are in the the Euros camp so to speak ? From my vantage point none (EC seems warmest)... but needs to be considered. Front end thump should formidable along or just N of I80.... lots and lots of sleet possible I84-I80... just not clear cut except that it's big qpf in 12-18 hrs... best banding could be between I84-I90. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM appears to be a little faster on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 06z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 06z Euro Do these maps not show LI and CT? I dont understand why only PA and NJ are posted from these maps every time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, psv88 said: Do these maps not show LI and CT? I dont understand why only PA and NJ are posted from these maps every time. Here you go, they don't have a nice zoomed in one that shows LI. I believe the guy that owns the website is PA centric. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Here you go, they don't have a nice zoomed in one that shows LI. I believe the guy that owns the website is PA centric. TY. First one of those ive ever seen for the whole NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 If we could just have more moisture on the back end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Here you go, they don't have a nice zoomed in one that shows LI. I believe the guy that owns the website is PA centric. Is the 6Z generally the same as the normal runs except it only runs to 90 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Nam clown map. WARNING INCLUDES SLEET!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: TY. First one of those ive ever seen for the whole NE Ryan's site has it and allows it to be posted for personal use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Nam clown map. WARNING INCLUDES SLEET!! night and day - euro and nam - which one was is more accurate ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: night and day - euro and nam - which one was is more accurate ? Nam shifted north but the surface temps are still cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 HRRR is quite balmy in the long range. #longlivedrno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, friedmators said: HRRR is quite balmy in the long range. #longlivedrno Not good but it's in the long range for the HRRR. Better to use this tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Often the NAM MOS wind directions can tip you off...on the November storm they did that...the 12Z is not in yet but the 00Z NAM was concerning in that winds at LGA went 080 for about 2-3 hours from 23-01z and then right back to 040-050 again...good luck getting over 32 with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks like there is some room to wet bulb a little. Might allow some accums on the front end for some posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: night and day - euro and nam - which one was is more accurate ? Probably weigh 75% EURO. The sleet is a good thing as it takes longer to melt. The METS always say CAD is under modeled. Probably a 1 to 4 inch sleet snow combo for coasties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Not good but it's in the long range for the HRRR. Better to use this tomorrow. I think this storm is a nightmare to forecast especially around NYC and the immediate suburbs - a shift of a few miles in track or temps at various levels can be the difference between various precip types . Anyone who thinks they have this forecast fiqured out should be careful. Models are struggling with this set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, friedmators said: Looks like there is some room to wet bulb a little. Might allow some accums on the front end for some posters. Despite the fact the system is approaching from the WSW and we do best here on front end snows on SWFEs that approach more from the south like November did there are some signs we might start snowing earlier than 23-00z...maybe as early as 19-20Z...subtle shortwave in the flow at 500 as well as possible frontogenesis area lifting through...there are subtle hints at this on the NAM the last couple of runs though it does not generate a ton of precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Second guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I think this storm is a nightmare to forecast especially around NYC and the immediate suburbs - a shift of a few miles in track or temps at various levels can be the difference between various precip types . Anyone who thinks they have this forecast fiqured out should be careful. Models are struggling with this set up. Yea agree - though the weenie in me was always hoping for a dramatic SE correction but prob not in the cards. What is certainly not set in stone is how much of a front end thump we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Second guess looks like you are going with the Euro over the NAM - Philly 2-4 and Northeast Bergen County NJ the same ? Delaware Beaches 1 -3 and Northern Monmouth County NJ 1 -3 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Second guess That seems pretty legit. I think that the immediate NJ shore will be all rain. (That includes me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: looks like you are going with the Euro over the NAM - Philly 2-4 and Northeast Bergen County NJ the same ? Remember the range is 2-4". NW Philly and NW Burbs are probably closer to the lower range and Bergen is probably closer to the higher range. Still some time to tweak things later though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 hours ago, tim said: ...yeah..i got close to an inch of snow..temp @ 28.4..still have -S. wouldn't surprise me if this will be more snow then i get on sat./sun slop fest. Finished up with 3/4" here. Is there somewhere else this little storm is being discussed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12Z NAM winds still concerning and this is just for LGA. Winds 080 18-00Z (and they are too light at that range and ahead of the system to really warm the layer much with snow falling for part of that time) then back to 050-060...its better than showing 030-040 but sometimes at this range that shift is undermodeled. I still have concerns this could be a very bad FZRA event N Queens/NYC and WNW from there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: That seems pretty legit. I think that the immediate NJ shore will be all rain. (That includes me) I didn't account for a no snow area, however I doubt anyone East of the GSP once you get South of the Driscoll bridge sees much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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