Brasiluvsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs is colder and south. Temps never get above freezing for NYC with 6 inches on the snow map. 88 or anyone else,,how far into South Jersey does it snow , Is It raining or mixing at the shore or snowing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, justinj said: when was the last time the nyc metro area experienced a serious ice storm? Jan 94. Very very much on the table from northern queens NW. This is based on CAD and the NE wind. Throw in a little climatology too. I think the island outside of NW Nassau shouldn’t see much ice. Good thump of snow though with serious rates for a time could surprise ala feb 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, justinj said: expecting 1-3" here on the south shore of suffolk in holbrook then going to rain after a few hours of snow Where I am will put up a fight but no guarantees. I've seen it low 30s with snow/sleet here while it's low 40s with rain at ISP, then 15 minutes later it's 40 and raining here. Feels good for a few minutes yet in the end means nothing most times. But we live for the exceptions. Feb '13 and Feb '14 were nice exceptions. This one has potential...or we could see the warm side of 50 for a couple of hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/WxBriefing_FB.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Is this a reverse storm of the century forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said: Where I am will put up a fight but no guarantees. I've seen it low 30s with snow/sleet here while it's low 40s with rain at ISP, then 15 minutes later it's 40 and raining here. Feels good for a few minutes yet in the end means nothing most times. But we live for the exceptions. Feb '13 and Feb '14 were nice exceptions. This one has potential...or we could see the warm side of 50 for a couple of hours. i lived in smithtown until i moved out to holbrook in october. the whole NW suffolk area seems to have always been the bullseye for the highest snow totals on LI 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 35 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs is colder and south. Temps never get above freezing for NYC with 6 inches on the snow map. You have a map for this you'd like to share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Ukie is a thump to ice nw (rain at coast) back to some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 well if you want snow euro isn’t your answer its possibly the warmest out of all models now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: well if you want snow euro isn’t your answer its possibly the warmest out of all models now. oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 latest from the OPC https://ocean.weather.gov/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Anybody have the UK snowfall map? Haven't seen it yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 26 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: well if you want snow euro isn’t your answer its possibly the warmest out of all models now. The Euro (Kuchera) is barely 4 inches total even up in Rockland County for the weekend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just took a nice walk and measured 1/2" of gorgeous fresh powder here at 28F and snowing lightly - would be nice to make it to 1"... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, kingbaus said: 6z nam is way south but the rain snow line is still pretty north. Definitely 50 miles or so south vs. 0Z, but a very similar precip profile, with the ~6" snow line on TT being about the same as 0Z; just remember a lot of the "snow" is actually sleet and also Pivotal is still showing 1/2" or so freezing rain along 95. Still the best model for the 95 corridor and has performed decently the past few seasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Early panels on 06z RGEM show it’s coming south from its 00Z run. This isn’t a total surprise since it was fairly far north yesterday at 12 and 18 and it’s often overamped at the end of its cycles. The EPS also appeared to go north from its 12Z run like the 00Z Euro did but it was hard to tell on the mean because the system appeared faster too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Just took a nice walk and measured 1/2" of gorgeous fresh powder here at 28F and snowing lightly - would be nice to make it to 1"... ...yeah..i got close to an inch of snow..temp @ 28.4..still have -S. wouldn't surprise me if this will be more snow then i get on sat./sun slop fest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, tim said: ...yeah..i got close to an inch of snow..temp @ 28.4..still have -S. wouldn't surprise me if this will be more snow then i get on sat./sun slop fest. No that’s not going to be the case Tim. I mean in life anything is possible just chances are against that. Unless you live in south jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, tim said: ...yeah..i got close to an inch of snow..temp @ 28.4..still have -S. wouldn't surprise me if this will be more snow then i get on sat./sun slop fest. I'm hoping for a typical slopfest over ice frankly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: No that’s not going to be the case Tim. I mean in life anything is possible just chances are against that. Unless you live in south jersey We can hope it verifies on the warmer end, those of us in lower NNJ/CNJ, so we don't get much ice. If much snow is off the table, I'd rather plain rain ( though we are all sick of the rain ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 To my untrained eye new NAM shows 2 to 3 hours of snow tomorrow evening followed by heavy rain mixed with sleet through Sunday morning for long islandSent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Upton seems to be going with the NAM in their forecast, their highs on Sunday are pretty cold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: Upton seems to be going with the NAM in their forecast, their highs on Sunday are pretty cold Makes sense-the NAM being mesoscale should be the model to pick up on any CAD etc. It's a bit odd to see the euro not agreeing with the NAM yet-they usually come into line about 48 hrs out... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: Upton seems to be going with the NAM in their forecast, their highs on Sunday are pretty cold Thats a smart move by them, NAM has been good beginning in Jan 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thats a smart move by them, NAM has been good beginning in Jan 2016. NAM can occasionally suck beyond 36 so I am not totally sold yet the Euro is out to lunch but I'm leaning that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 06z Euro is still a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: 06z Euro is still a torch So still no resolution even though the shortwave is now onshore? If this is still happening within 24 hrs of the start of the event I'd be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: So still no resolution even though the shortwave is now onshore? If this is still happening within 24 hrs of the start of the event I'd be shocked. The Euro thinks the northern stream is really gonna pull the whole thing north. The Euro occasionally gets over zealous on that type of idea and given this is a somewhat unorthodox type storm....almost a SWFE/coastal hybrid it may be having a difficult time. The NAM would cave either this run or this afternoon most likely. If it continues getting colder the Euro is probably wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Good Friday morning mets, weather enthusiasts et al, Several images, all produced by the NWS ~4-5A today. Some are experimental. 1) prob for 12+ ...probability legend coded...orange 80% prob 12+. WPC 2) prob for >.10 glaze. Probability legend coded. Only 40-50%. Probably in part due to excessive runoff of heavy zr, when/if it occurs, and also it could be sleet. It's a statistical probability. WPC 3) collaborated snowfall forecast of multiple WFO's. NWS 4) Experimental IMPACT graphics, based on WFO collaboration of snow and ice. NWS The following calendar day cold -Monday 1/19/19 - MLK Bday - imo, is going to be our coldest since 1/17/09. I think that adds to the overall impact but is not accounted for in these graphics. Later, Walt 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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