Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Snowlover11 said: GFS is coming in futher south, starts off cold but warms up. By 6z it's near Annapolis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: By 6z it's near Annapolis Cmc is similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: By 6z it's near Annapolis The push of the 850 line def slower and further south this run. Overall its a good run even though surface temps are ugly in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'll go out on a limb and say RGEM having NYC start as rain is wrong LOL 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS has that low jumping south from Long Island to south of BM. It's NJ to LI to BM, in a triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 clipper 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 anyone who lives north and west of 287 gets hit pretty good off the gfs. definitely colder in some areas, still torches the city south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Doorman said: clipper Gfs thermals are garbage. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: anyone who lives north and west of 287 gets hit pretty good off the gfs. definitely colder in some areas, still torches the city south and east. Can those temps REALLY be that extreme ??? 50S on LI and 32 up North at same time ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Gfs thermals are garbage. Horrendous as we saw many times in the past. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Can those temps REALLY be that extreme ??? 50S on LI and 32 up North at same time ???? Yes it can 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 And doorman this isn’t a clipper. It’s coming from the pacific. It’s a very juicy system not a moisture starved system that redevelops off the coast. p.s. Gfs and cmc are the worst models. i swear I think sometimes the navgem is a better model than both gfs and cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Can those temps REALLY be that extreme ??? 50S on LI and 32 up North at same time ???? Yeah the December 2013 event had that at one point but this event I don't think anyone gets over 40. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: Yes it can Not only can it but given the setup I would expect it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, mikem81 said: Bam has 850 line only making it about 30-40 miles north of NYC/LI Good luck. Torch city.. HV ice storm. City has no problem. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Good luck. Torch city.. HV ice storm. City has no problem. Gfs and cmc just came south Ukie is also further south and east 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Gfs and cmc just came south Ukie is also further south and east The trends tonight are good, not only a bit south but very heavy overrunning to start the storm coming into the metro area which means a repeat of something close to 11/15 is possible. I am not using the CMC/GFS in terms of surface temps, it's great news that the models are showing more precip out of ahead of the 850 surge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 25 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Good luck. Torch city.. HV ice storm. City has no problem. Welcome back. It Gon Rain. Rinse repeat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 PARA G AT 60Hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Any word on Ukie? I hear it’s south again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, David-LI said: Any word on Ukie? I hear it’s south again Ends up in the identical location but slightly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, David-LI said: Any word on Ukie? I hear it’s south again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Ends up in the identical location but slightly colder Still appears it wants to phase with the northern stream late but it tried moving away from that idea. If that’s wrong this will continue to get colder 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Yup, worst winter ever. It’s 80% frozen and trending colder. It’ll be a fun storm cheer up debby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: It’s 80% frozen and trending colder. It’ll be a fun storm cheer up debby Maybe it will, the Nam was a red flag that is hard to ignore. Meso models are far better at surface temps than globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Maybe it will, the Nam was a red flag that is hard to ignore. Meso models are far better at surface temps than globals. The ETA is a meso model?! Well I’ll be. They didn’t teach us that in school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I don't want to go too far down the rabbit hole of "I want this weather, nuh uh I want that weather" but a very serious FRZ or sleet event is still exciting to me. As much fun as a ton of powder will be, it's much rarer from recent history to get a significant ice storm. For us in CNJ that is very much on the table. I've seen tons of huge snow events, not many of the former. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Gefs is colder and south. Temps never get above freezing for NYC with 6 inches on the snow map. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 expecting 1-3" here on the south shore of suffolk in holbrook then going to rain after a few hours of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 when was the last time the nyc metro area experienced a serious ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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