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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay
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Just now, NycStormChaser said:

That had it at 8 to 12 most of the day. But they recently cut back

 

Just now, NycStormChaser said:

That had it at 8 to 12 most of the day. But they recently cut back

Chaser I don't know about that as I did not see it earlier today ( and I had looked) and if anything , earlier today I would think they would have lesser amounts ( due to guidance at that time ) but I could be wrong,,, there was no snow map yet as far as I saw and what I am talking about was posted by the NWS as of 7 pm,,,this is why I asked the question.

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4 hours ago, RU848789 said:

According to the NWS AFD the other day, tonight's 0Z is the first suite where we'll have the southern stream low fully ashore and well-sampled, meaning we should have more accurate, fuller initial conditions to feed into the models, so if there's a time when we might see a modest to significant shift (in either direction) 0Z would be it.  One can hope.  

I believe we've been NAM-ed in general, and especially for the I-95 corridor, the most important location on the planet, lol.  Although keep in mind that a fair amount of that "snow" on TT is sleet, but I'll take sleet over ZR or rain any day...also, a lot of ZR on this run.  Really need to show all 3 maps to get the full picture: 4-6" of snow, then 8-10" of sleet being counted as 10:1 snow, i.e., 1" of LE as sleet, which is 2-3" of sleet, then 1/2-1" of ZR, which would be absorbed by the 1.2-1.6" of frozen LE as snow/sleet, meaning the slushpack would contain about 2-2.5" LE, which would flash freeze and be around for a long time.  Wow.  Of course, this is just one model run and not a forecast...

namconus_asnow_neus_23.png

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

zr_acc.us_ne.png

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Its showing .87 of ZR for NYC lol not that I'm buying that 

In this era of wild weather nothing can be discounted. I'm a little worried about this storm TBH. It has the potential to be a disappointing storm in terms of snow and real pain in the neck in terms of ice. My daughter will be traveling by bus from DC Sat night. I'm concerned.

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I’m generally not a fan of forecasting big time sleet with these events.  It does occasionally occur like it did on 1/7/94 for most of the day or 2/13/07 but in general  you end up more snowy or FZRA/RA.  This is more of a classic SWFE than January 94 or February 07 so I’m siding more with this not being as “sleety” as it may look on some models now 

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