SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs did shift further east and south. Looks like the euro. Surface temps on the Gfs have actually cooled off substantially over the past 2-3 runs. Went from mid to upper 40s to mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Surface temps on the Gfs have actually cooled off substantially over the past 2-3 runs. Went from mid to upper 40s to mid 30s. You figured it would catch onto that sooner or later. Reality is I don’t think anyone outside of south shore of Nassau and Suffolk county will really get over 34-38 during this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Everyone should understand there are still going to be changes in the modeling up through the event due primarily to three things: While some of the Pacific energy was sampled on the West Coast this morning, the backside jet (500-250mb) will be better sampled on the 00z soundings. I've seen this matter countless times for storms in the Midwest, specifically with the GFS and NAM, no matter how good the ingestion of satellite data is these days. The subtleties of its phasing with an arm of the polar vortex - timing and location of this still isn't ironed out, as many have pointed out. Convection will play havoc with surface low and low-level jet development. This system will be highly convective through the mid-south due to warmth and moisture from the Gulf meeting up with the Arctic air mass, in addition to all the jet dynamics. More often than not, convection may "drag" surface features (including the sfc low) towards the higher instability/waa until jet dynamics and vorticity advection take over (which is what causes the low to bomb out well NE of here). Even the hi-res models miss this all the time. There is at least some model evidence now to support the idea that even if the surface low(s) pass just south of the region, surface temps could stay sub-freezing throughout the city and most of LI as ageostrophic flow out of the high to our north outperforms. It's not just the RPM showing this. I see no reason to doubt a front-end thump here followed by a brief transition to sleet before primarily liquid precip falls. I wouldn't count out some back side pellets or snow either, although for now that looks light. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 According to the NWS AFD the other day, tonight's 0Z is the first suite where we'll have the southern stream low fully ashore and well-sampled, meaning we should have more accurate, fuller initial conditions to feed into the models, so if there's a time when we might see a modest to significant shift (in either direction) 0Z would be it. One can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: Everyone should understand there are still going to be changes in the modeling up through the event due primarily to three things: While some of the Pacific energy was sampled on the West Coast this morning, the backside jet (500-250mb) will be better sampled on the 00z soundings. I've seen this matter countless times for storms in the Midwest, specifically with the GFS and NAM, no matter how good the ingestion of satellite data is these days. The subtleties of its phasing with an arm of the polar vortex - timing and location of this still isn't ironed out, as many have pointed out. Convection will play havoc with surface low and low-level jet development. This system will be highly convective through the mid-south due to warmth and moisture from the Gulf meeting up with the Arctic air mass, in addition to all the jet dynamics. More often than not, convection may "drag" surface features (including the sfc low) towards the higher instability/waa until jet dynamics and vorticity advection take over (which is what causes the low to bomb out well NE of here). Even the hi-res models miss this all the time. There is at least some model evidence now to support the idea that even if the surface low(s) pass just south of the region, surface temps could stay sub-freezing throughout the city and most of LI as ageostrophic flow out of the high to our north outperforms. It's not just the RPM showing this. I see no reason to doubt a front-end thump here followed by a brief transition to sleet before primarily liquid precip falls. I wouldn't count out some back side pellets or snow either, although for now that looks light. First bullet looks like what I just wrote. Just better said, lol. Great post. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 24 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: You figured it would catch onto that sooner or later. Reality is I don’t think anyone outside of south shore of Nassau and Suffolk county will really get over 34-38 during this event Agree not that it matters much although might mitigate washing it all away if there was a front end dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 If you want those 3-6” totals verifying in the city itself better hope this comes in like a wall and we thump hard for a good couple of hours. I still think the GFS is playing catch up on surface temps. I dont see the city getting into the upper 30’s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah NWS amounts for city and Long Island are too high at the moment. I wouldn’t want to go any higher than 1-2 right now at all. I would probably hedge it as 1-3 so if I did have to up things later the change wouldn’t be as significant to the eyes or mind of the public Pretty sure this is based off what happened in November, this time they want to go reverse and hype it up, better to be safe on their end and overestimate totals rather than underestimate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 imo With this progged track, the APPs (mountains) will knock the snot out of the QPF profiles A bland system will be my call for the metro....NAM signals that 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Gefs is also further east now. Is this trend going to continue or reverse ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs is also further east now. Is this trend going to continue or reverse ? 0Z runs will probably determine it, if theres going to be any further noticeable changes it likely happens by 0Z tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs is also further east now. Is this trend going to continue or reverse ? At this point, what's your thoughts for NE Sussex Co. NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, sussexcountyobs said: At this point, what's your thoughts for NE Sussex Co. NJ? You have a better chance of frozen precip than I do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: At this point, what's your thoughts for NE Sussex Co. NJ? Mix bag of frozen precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Im really looking forward to tonights model runs and thanks again to all you guys who have done a helluva job explaining stuff to guys like me its appreciated and educational 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looks at all those members sitting south of ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It says@rjay quoted me? Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Doorman said: imo With this progged track, the APPs (mountains) will knock the snot out of the QPF profiles A bland system will be my call for the metro....NAM signals that Do explain what you mean or someone in here?? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Do explain what you mean or someone in here?? Thanks in advance That's about the most explanation you'll get from him. He's strictly for those in the know. But a decent fellow it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: That's about the most explanation you'll get from him. He's strictly for those in the know. But a decent fellow it seems. I think he's implying that the mountains are gonna carve up (dry out) some moisture with that track. Since it goes right through the apps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 25 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Do explain what you mean or someone in here?? Thanks in advance 12 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: That's about the most explanation you'll get from him. He's strictly for those in the know. But a decent fellow it seems. What's not clear about the post??? I believe a drier system, than is cast ATM will come thru the metro NAM guidance shows a decrease in QPF by almost a half inch at 18z that's a clipper track..... if you ask me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 14 minutes ago, Doorman said: What's not clear about the post??? I believe a drier system, than is cast ATM will come thru the metro NAM guidance shows a decrease in QPF by almost a half inch at 18z that's a clipper track..... if you ask me I surmised as much, but not everyone here would. But it's ok. Not to worry. You're a man of few words. Nothing wrong with it. You have something to say, while I just like to say something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, Doorman said: What's not clear about the post??? I believe a drier system, than is cast ATM will come thru the metro NAM guidance shows a decrease in QPF by almost a half inch at 18z that's a clipper track..... if you ask me By the way, kinda hope you're right, who needs a lot of ice and ZR. Not me. Not anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 25 minutes ago, Doorman said: What's not clear about the post??? I believe a drier system, than is cast ATM will come thru the metro NAM guidance shows a decrease in QPF by almost a half inch at 18z that's a clipper track..... if you ask me The euro at 12z also chopped back on QPF from 2.5 to even 3 inches in spots to a more general 1.5-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 If only the navgem was a good model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 ...my estimated observation @7am sunday morning...37* with heavy rain with <1" of snow OTG.. not expecting much out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 the haves vs the have knots (in the stomach) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, tim said: ...my estimated observation @7am sunday morning...37* with heavy rain with <1" of snow OTG.. not expecting much out here. Same for me. I'll be in Long Beach this weekend where it'll probably be a quick inch or two over to rain. Where I am now may be up to a few inches and some sleet before going to rain, but this isn't the type of storm that does well on the coastal plain. It's your classic North and West storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The system has a direct connection to the Gulf of Mexico, it’s not that models have trended drier, it’s that they have shifted the timing. In sooner, out sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The NAM is out of range and has been unstable at H5. I know it’s the weenie model of choice and has done well recently but it’s overall track record is terrible outside of 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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