hudsonvalley21 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, sferic said: If Sullivan county is assumed to be mainly snow, why is Deleware county to its north progged at six inches more? I'm thinking they are considering mixing issues. But haven't put it in their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, David-LI said: The pattern does not look bad going forward. Plenty of winter to go still. I wish I had a dollar for every time I heard that this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This is my preliminary guess 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nice map, though as a ct coast native my entire life I cant wrap my head around how SW ct would be raining while northern Long Island would still be a wintery mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 EPS Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is my preliminary guess 2-4 inches of snow on the North Shore of Suffolk county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Nice map, though as a ct coast native my entire life I cant wrap my head around how SW ct would be raining while northern Long Island would still be a wintery mix. It's just the immediate Ct coast. The North shore of Long Island tends to hand on a little longer because they are a bit more protected from the ocean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said: 2-4 inches of snow on the North Shore of Suffolk county? That's what it says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I won't argue with you because you know waaaay more than me---I just hope you are wrong! I see this as being all rain on Long Island---a throwback storm if you will. I've been told many times it would snow, only to rain. Despite the best set ups, snow was tough to get---throwback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's just the immediate Ct coast. The North shore of Long Island tends to hand on a little longer because they are a bit more protected from the ocean. I’ve definitely seen them hang on longer than the south shore of Long Island, multiple storms where north Long Island is snowing and Long Beach is raining and near 40, but never seen coastal ct switch while north Long Island is still holding on. Just being picky though the map is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I won't argue with you because you know waaaay more than me---I just hope you are wrong! I see this as being all rain on Long Island---a throwback storm if you will. I've been told many times it would snow, only to rain. Despite the best set ups, snow was tough to get---throwback 1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said: I’ve definitely seen them hang on longer than the south shore of Long Island, multiple storms where north Long Island is snowing and Long Beach is raining and near 40, but never seen coastal ct switch while north Long Island is still holding on. Just being picky though the map is reasonable. This is just my preliminary thinking based on past history in these setups and current model trends. I will tweak it tomorrow if needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: This is just my preliminary thinking based on past history in these setups and current model trends. I will tweak it tomorrow if needed. Would it be safe to say that you are expecting a significant front end thump of snow if there is rain/sleet to follow for a fairly long period of time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's just the immediate Ct coast. The North shore of Long Island tends to hand on a little longer because they are a bit more protected from the ocean. not sure I've ever seen the north shore of LI as a mix while I am raining but I agree with your map in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is just my preliminary thinking based on past history in these setups and current model trends. I will tweak it tomorrow if needed. Agree, I would wait till the 12z runs tomorrow for tweaking, that would get a real good sampling of the position and strength of the high and the system currently on the west coast. Nice map, past history is always a factor especially with the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Would it be safe to say that you are expecting a significant front end thump of snow if there is rain/sleet to follow for a fairly long period of time? Typically precip on SWFE arrives sooner than predicted. The surge is really well modeled so yes I am predicting it to come in like a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18Z NAM coming in way less amped than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: not sure I've ever seen the north shore of LI as a mix while I am raining but I agree with your map in general. 2/13/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2/13/2014That's because the LP was just E of you and therefore you were on the backside and mid levels had cooled. S CT was still having warm air flooded in mid levels as it was just North of the LP. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nam is further north with the primary and changes over to rain fairly quickly at the city and coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 29 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: I’ve definitely seen them hang on longer than the south shore of Long Island, multiple storms where north Long Island is snowing and Long Beach is raining and near 40, but never seen coastal ct switch while north Long Island is still holding on. Just being picky though the map is reasonable. Correct. I do not think that has ever happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: That's because the LP was just E of you and therefore you were on the backside and mid levels had cooled. S CT was still having warm air flooded in mid levels as it was just North of the LP. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk We were zr while Orange County had plain rain. A couple of the guys up there thought I was lying. Never made it to freezing in a bubble several miles wide around here. Great storm I presume southern CT went to plain rain that afternoon, but we did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Winter storm watch for NYC 3-6 inches of snow with some ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Why is it showing such a dry tongue with the low along the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Correct. I do not think that has ever happened. It's unusual, but has happened. I interpreted YF's forecast as being simply more snow here, not as a slower changeover. That happens a lot more often than a situation with frozen here while plain rain on the opposite side of the Sound. Not defending the forecast...that's not my intent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Why is it showing such a dry tongue with the low along the coastYou mean behind it? Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: You mean behind it? Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk I mean over Northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I mean over Northern NJ.To me it looks to be how the model is transitioning the CCB to a DCB Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I am sure there is no consensus on this yet, but has this storm's start time been moving steadily earlier? The WSW has a initiation of 12 p.m., but I wouldn't expect snow that early on LI. Are we looking at 3 p.m. or so now or am I reading things wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, swataz said: I am sure there is no consensus on this yet, but has this storm's start time been moving steadily earlier? The WSW has a initiation of 12 p.m., but I wouldn't expect snow that early on LI. Are we looking at 3 p.m. or so now or am I reading things wrong? The nam has the arrival time between 5 and 7pm west to east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I am sure there is no consensus on this yet, but has this storm's start time been moving steadily earlier? The WSW has a initiation of 12 p.m., but I wouldn't expect snow that early on LI. Are we looking at 3 p.m. or so now or am I reading things wrong?It has been transitioning earlier. Also the NWS likes to issue warnings with a good lead time. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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