HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 31 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: This setup reminds of me of a quick thump of snow followed by sleet and than maybe change to some light showers before it ends and turns brutally cold. That thump could come in like a wall and accumulate 3-6 quick inches I disagree about the only light showers part, this storm is intense and has a lot of warm moisture with it, it will pour and pour a lot the question is will the pouring freeze on the surface or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS still a torch, caved a little, still the warmest model at the surface, only model with surface temps above freezing well into the HV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I disagree about the only light showers part, this storm is intense and has a lot of warm moisture with it, it will pour and pour a lot the question is will the pouring freeze on the surface or not It’s sleet. And freezing rain no rain like icon just depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAM and ICON has NE NJ and NYC in the upper 20s to freezing at the surface 12z Sunday. GFS has those same areas over 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS still a torch, caved a little, still the warmest model at the surface, only model with surface temps above freezing well into the HV Yep. Actually SLIGHTLY north with surface low initially and a BIT quicker changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Gfs is just not a good model. I think icon may be a better model than GFS. It seems like the GfS is good with the strength of the storm but that’s about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I thought the ICON LP track was similiar to UKIE. Low looks to jump to around ACY at 6Z Sunday and winds shift to the NE at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS now has the backlash as well. Would early FEB storm of 2015 be a ok analog. Had front end then ice then backlash. Boston had 16. Coastal CT 10.5 not sure about the City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 According to GFS any rain will fall overnight with a changeover Sunday afternoon. We might get a few inches after the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 CMC looks similar to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 JMA with an interesting look similiar to UKIE. From my own experience the EURO through 72 closely follows the JMA track https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2019011712&fh=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 According to GFS, city should be changing over to snow around 1 PM Sunday and end by 6 PM as the storm pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: CMC looks similar to the GFS Thats not good, it was colder last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Cmc is very warm and it’s an erratic model but maybe onto something. I would go with ukmet and euro blend at this stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, David-LI said: According to GFS, city should be changing over to snow around 1 PM Sunday and end by 6 PM as the storm pulls away. Thats not actually what it's showing, we have to remember precip panels are for the previous 6 hours the city changes over around hour 78 but theres barely any qpf that falls after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The GFS is useless for temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, David-LI said: According to GFS, city should be changing over to snow around 1 PM Sunday and end by 6 PM as the storm pulls away. very little precip falls after 1Pm sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, David-LI said: According to GFS, city should be changing over to snow around 1 PM Sunday and end by 6 PM as the storm pulls away. The city doesn't get much of anything after 1pm. Keep in mind this is showing what falls in the prior 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ignore the temperatures on the GFS and the Canadian. Follow the Euro and then blend in the NAM once within 48 hours. Anyway, major positive changes regarding the track of the surface low. This opens the door for backside snows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 CMC does get warm but it is a pretty intense front end dump for Northern NYC and the Burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ignore the temperatures on the GFS and the Canadian. Follow the Euro and then blend in the NAM once within 48 hours. Anyway, major positive changes regarding the track of the surface low. This opens the door for backside snows.Also. The Euro and NAM have both shifted significantly South the last two runs for the storm affecting the area tonight. There's nothing to say this won't happen with the storm Sunday. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The city doesn't get anything after 1pm. Keep in mind this is showing what falls in the prior 6 hours It's almost 24 hours worth of precipitation in a progressive pattern. Not sure we could have asked for much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, USCG RS said: Also. The Euro and NAM have both shifted significantly South the last two runs for the storm affecting the area tonight. There's nothing to say this won't happen with the storm Sunday. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Yesterday models shifted South and then last night and this morning some came back North a bit. This is nothing more than your typical windshield wiper effect and a lot of people on here should take a break and come back tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: It's almost 24 hours worth of precipitation in a progressive pattern. Not sure we could have asked for much more. Well we could've have asked for it to be colder lol but agree it's at least something interesting to track finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Well we could've have asked for it to be colder lol but agree it's at least something interesting to track finally It's plenty cold at the surface. The GFS and Canadian are way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 If the CMC/GFS are right the icing threat is mostly non existent, it's basically snow to rain from SE to NW for everyone. It is quite the model battle now between CMC/GFS vs Euro/Ukmet/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: If the CMC/GFS are right the icing threat is mostly non existent, it's basically snow to rain from SE to NW for everyone. It is quite the model battle now between CMC/GFS vs Euro/Ukmet/NAM Clearly I would pick the better models. euro and ukmet are just better models and nam could be erratic and but it has improved somewhat and it doesn’t show those crazy qpf depiction like it used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 More flash freeze potential from the Gfs. Don't know how that will work out, often things dry out before it gets cold enough for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yesterday models shifted South and then last night and this morning some came back North a bit. This is nothing more than your typical windshield wiper effect and a lot of people on here should take a break and come back tomorrow night.But we won't Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ukmet is definitely West. Bad news if you want a colder solution. Don’t tell me GfS wins again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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