kat5hurricane Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 47 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro has single digit lows and highs for NYC on Monday with wind chills well below 0. It's way worse for inland areas. This will likely be the bigger story on the coast, not the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: The Tidbits maps include sleet as 10-1 snow and since a lot of that is sleet (can tell by difference between their maps and Pivotals, which show very little snow, since they don't include sleet), 10" is more like 4" of snow and 2" of sleet (equivalent to 6" of 10-1 snow). Neither service includes ZR in their snowfall algorithms. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, RU848789 said: The Tidbits maps include sleet as 10-1 snow and since a lot of that is sleet (can tell by difference between their maps and Pivotals, which show very little snow, since they don't include sleet), 10" is more like 4" of snow and 2" of sleet (equivalent to 6" of 10-1 snow). Neither service includes ZR in their snowfall algorithms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: This map is much more realistic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The timing on the NAM is much faster than the model consensus. Most models have precip extending to at least 18z-00z while the 12z NAM pretty much has everything wrapped up by 12-15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manhattanandcatskills Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That is HILARIOUS...and not just for the IMBY aspect. I live in MV as well, and nobody really calls it that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I would use extreme caution with the NAM, it's still flopping around wildly at H5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: NAM is a quick 2-4 front end thump for NYC before the mixed precipitation arrives around 3z Sunday. Hopefully the cold air stays longer in place . Low level cold air will be hard to get rid of quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I would use extreme caution with the NAM, it's still flopping around wildly at H5 Yes. And not making synoptic sense always. I have not dissected this run yet, but last night it had the Vort max in Texas jump from W to E instead of rounding the base of the trough. I'll look later.. But as you said, from initial looks it's jumping at h5 a good bit Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Euro has single digit lows and highs for NYC on Monday with wind chills well below 0. It's way worse for inland areas. Not fun following a rainstorm, hopefully they'll be some wintry precip on the ground, if not what a waste of cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: NAM is a quick 2-4 front end thump for NYC before the mixed precipitation arrives around 3z Sunday. Verbatim it's more like less than an inch for most of the city, the 2 inch line is at the Bronx/Westchester border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Not fun following a rainstorm, hopefully they'll be some wintry precip on the ground, if not what a waste of cold It’s mostly frozen this isn’t going to be a rainstorm sir 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Verbatim it's more like less than an inch for most of the city, the 2 inch line is at the Bronx/Westchester border. This setup reminds of me of a quick thump of snow followed by sleet and than maybe change to some light showers before it ends and turns brutally cold. That thump could come in like a wall and accumulate 3-6 quick inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: It's embarrassing how half the forum jumps ship when the crappy long range NAM comes in unfavorable. Usually more than 1/2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, RU848789 said: The Tidbits maps include sleet as 10-1 snow and since a lot of that is sleet (can tell by difference between their maps and Pivotals, which show very little snow, since they don't include sleet), 10" is more like 4" of snow and 2" of sleet (equivalent to 6" of 10-1 snow). Neither service includes ZR in their snowfall algorithms. I wouldn't discount any of those accumulation map forecasts that are showing larger accumulations - it didn't work for the November storm when many folks were cutting the numbers saying they weren't possible - really surprised Upton is forecasting such low totals - think they would have learned their lesson already after the November fiasco. SATURDAY PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW. SLEET, RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. SUNDAY FREEZING RAIN. RAIN AND SLEET IN THE MORNING, THEN SLEET AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING, THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 BELOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Anyone buying into the ICON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, CarLover014 said: Anyone buying into the ICON? ICON is missleading as it only shows snow and rain. No ice depiction so some of that snow could be ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That's a nasty dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This isnt the nyc and south forum. If this storm is nothing for you...take a break and let those who can possibly be affected by a pretty serious storm discuss it without the bs. If you need help with the break, PM myself or @Rjay and we’ll be happy to help. Last discussion on this matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: ICON is missleading as it only shows snow and rain. No ice depiction so some of that snow could be ice. It's not misleading at all. It just doesn't offer that as an option. It doesn't take much effort to look at 2m temps and see that it's showing rain where it's ice in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, CarLover014 said: Anyone buying into the ICON? its impossible to say which model is going to be closest with snow accumulations at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: It's not misleading at all. It just doesn't offer that as an option. It doesn't take much effort to look at 2m temps and see that it's showing rain where it's ice in reality. Temps are near 30 for the whole storm for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 ICON FTW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: ICON is missleading as it only shows snow and rain. No ice depiction so some of that snow could be ice. Icon has a similiar track like the ukie with the low going off the SNJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Temps are near 30 for the whole storm for NYC Anthony, how about JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, sferic said: Anthony, how about JFK? Similiar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 20 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: It’s mostly frozen this isn’t going to be a rainstorm sir Mostly frozen? Mostly liquid. Some above freezing liquid. HV has major ice problem though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: This setup reminds of me of a quick thump of snow followed by sleet and than maybe change to some light showers before it ends and turns brutally cold. That thump could come in like a wall and accumulate 3-6 quick inches sort of what like happened during the November storm in many areas - if there is an analog storm it MIGHT be this one BUT that all depends if there is an extended period of freezing rain in some locations and also if a dry slot develops for some areas - all of which is impossible to determine this far out . Also IMO this storm might require significant adjustments in snow total forecasts during the event in some areas to be determined later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 If the surface low tracks a bit Southeast and ends up passing off the SNJ coast and towards the benchmark like some guidance showed yesterday that would keep the dry slot mostly offshore and would provide an opportunity for snow Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as the storm pulls away and cold air wraps back in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, purduewx80 said: Pretty much what I'm expecting unless there are major changes in the modeling today. Agree but with heavy rates I am still not sure the areas in the 28-32 range will see major icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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