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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay
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23 minutes ago, SP said:


Hey neighbor....I think front loaders will be required at 2100ft. All depends if there is mix.


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Hey neighbor, I was hoping there wouldn't be any power outages, I was actually thinking of checking up on things on Saturday, I wonder what time the snow is supposed to head in.  It might be better to do it early in the morning looks like it might be snowing before sunset.

 

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models never really waivered on the strength of the WAA with the LLJ. At least we get the front end thump ahead of the P-Type issues. Hopefully, we can get a measurement in the park before the mixing occurs.

Hopefully we dont lol.  I'd rather the record of futility continue rather than getting an insignificant 1-2 inches that just gets washed away.

Question, Chris, how come this was so well modeled even though the shortwave is still out in the Pacific? And until it hits the CONUS is there still time for significant changes? The shortwave isn't due to hit the CONUS for 24 hrs.

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39 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

Monday is a holiday which is great timing. Many people will be off the roads.

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Most corporations including mine are open on Monday. It’s more of a day observed by government and schools, not the private sector.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Most corporations including mine are open on Monday. It’s more of a day observed by government and schools, not the private sector.

I'm pretty sure all of the financial markets are all closed though, obviously only a segment of the labor force but a sizeable one.

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Something like the Nam would be good for us, it keeps surface temps below freezing for the duration of the storm with a lot of sleet/ice.

The Nam is a much better tool for temperatures than the Gfs in these cases.

I dont know how good ice is but it does look pretty on the trees.  If it does stay close to freezing or just below then the Jan 94, VD 07 and St Paddy's Day 07 analogs come into play.

 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Something like the Nam would be good for us, it keeps surface temps below freezing for the duration of the storm with a lot of sleet/ice.

The Nam is a much better tool for temperatures than the Gfs in these cases.

12k Nam has near a foot of frozen precip for the coast ( never changes to rain after some snow )

Alot of ice and sleet.

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Something like the Nam would be good for us, it keeps surface temps below freezing for the duration of the storm with a lot of sleet/ice.

The Nam is a much better tool for temperatures than the Gfs in these cases.

100% agreed. Not sure why any forecast would solely be on the basis on the GFS, actually the GFS depiction is just wrong saying it for days! 

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4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

No it doesn't. A 10:1 map yes. But realistically NAM is 5-6" before mid levels torch. I'd sign on the dotted line but no where near a foot.

Yes this isn't a Feb 1920 3 day storm deal lol.  You divide the total by five to get it from 10:1 to 2:1 which is how sleet equates to liquid, and you get 2-3"

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yes this isn't a Feb 1920 3 day storm deal lol.  You divide the total by five to get it from 10:1 too 2:1 which is how sleet equates to liquid, and you get 2-3"

 

12 inches of sleet is not going to happen but that run was all frozen precip for NYC with rain just to the east. I guess the cad hanged on longer.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

12 inches of sleet is not going to happen but that run was all frozen precip for NYC with rain just to the east. I guess the cad hanged on longer.

Okay so rain starts at the Nassau border?

Okay so let's say we say it's 1.20 total liquid half snow and half sleet (forget about freezing rain for now- that doesn't get measured as frozen precip), that makes it 0.6 liquid as snow, or about 6 inches, plus a little over an inch (1.2) as sleet, so we'd end up with about 7.2 inches total frozen (snow/sleet combo).

 

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Probably about .7" QPF frozen. The rest is 29-31° rain. Saying a foot is extremely misleading.

If thats half snow and half sleet and take 10:1 for snow and 2:1 for sleet, you end up with 3.5 inches of snow and 0.7 inch as sleet or a total of 4.2 inches of frozen precip (snow/sleet).

 

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