RU848789 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 0Z Euro Track looks the same as the UK to the BM via 25 miles S of Cape May from eastern TN - like I said about the UK, that can't be bad... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Even at its closest pass (straddling the south shore of LI) it keeps most of LI around 33-35 degrees. That's a big signal imo. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, USCG RS said: Even at its closest pass (straddling the south shore of LI) it keeps most of LI around 33-35 degrees. That's a big signal imo. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk It's actually above freezing almost the whole time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Even at its closest pass (straddling the south shore of LI) it keeps most of LI around 33-35 degrees. That's a big signal imo. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk I did not expect we'd be above freezing almost the while time on that rum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It's actually above freezing almost the whole time lolInteresting. Still... It keeps right about 35 even as the LP goes right under LI, in some ways muting a true torch (granted it would be rain verbatim). Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: I did not expect we'd be above freezing almost the while time on that rum SLP track looked identical to the UK, so I thought the Euro would at least have somewhat similar snowfall for the 95 corridor, but I assume no way with those surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6z nam is not super amped. in fact is looks almost to flat. low just off of ocean city Maryland heading east north east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, paweather said: and it doesn't transfer it just heads east. This is what you want up in NYC. That is why you see the snow totals. Good it should head east, there's a strong high to the north. I dont want an 80s type pattern where all the storms either went to DC or headed into upstate NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Well the snow totals are high because the models are assuming anything frozen is a 10:1 ratio. Since 70% looks like sleet or freezing rain accumulations would be nowhere near what the snowmaps show it does almost sound like the VD 2007 wintry storm or St Paddy's Day 2007, either or both were like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: No matter how many times we tell them, if they have the snow goggles on the primary could track to Buffalo and they would say all snow. thats why they should remember the two storms from 2007 that I referenced. It can stay all frozen like those two 2007 storms did, but it would be snow to sleet to freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: I don't as of now. 850s are +5 at the height of the precip even on the UK. Can change but we're really not that far out now. There wont be a final solution until the storm actually makes it onshore, sampling in the Pacific is poor, so wait for another 24 hours or so before things get nailed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Mt Holly nws morning afd going easily 6-10 inches of snow southern Poconos into nnj. (Nothing unusal)Mentions mostly snow likely but will monitor future computer model runs to determine the mix impacts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 19 hours ago, bluewave said: Much of that is ice or sleet near NYC. Yeah I'm confused because in several other posts he was very pessimistic about snow lol. How similar is this event to either the VD 2007 or St Paddy's Day 2007 events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Animal said: Mt Holly nws morning afd going easily 6-10 inches of snow southern Poconos into nnj. (Nothing unusal)Mentions mainly snow likely but will monitor future computer model runs to determine the mix impacts. Yes, I want to see the totals for Mt Pocono over to Lake Harmony and Albrightsville (around 2,000 ft where my summer home is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Locked and loaded for 4-8/5-10 front end dump, the ice/sleet, maybe borderline rain NYC and S/E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 If I had to guess here on Central long island at this point. A quick 1 to 2 inches followed by an hour of sleet then a cold rain followed by a bad freeze Sunday evening.Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, tek1972 said: If I had to guess here on Central long island at this point. A quick 1 to 2 inches followed by an hour of sleet then a cold rain followed by a bad freeze Sunday evening. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk About where on Central LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 About where on Central LI?MasticSent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Animal said: 6z nam is not super amped. in fact is looks almost to flat. low just off of ocean city Maryland heading east north east It looks similiar to the ukie. Eps is also further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 About where on Central LI?Monday is a holiday which is great timing. Many people will be off the roads.Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ugh I do not know why I listen to the local news.... Channel 7 had a high of 47 in NYC which is just flat out wrong and maybe 1-2 inches for weekend storm. I know it’s preliminary but they seem to mislead the public more and more these days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, tek1972 said: Monday is a holiday which is great timing. Many people will be off the roads. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Monday is going to be fine. Just very icy spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Ugh I do not know why I listen to the local news.... Channel 7 had a high of 47 in NYC which is just flat out wrong and maybe 1-2 inches for weekend storm. I know it’s preliminary but they seem to mislead the public more and more these days. They must be going with the Gfs. Navgem has the low sliding off the southern mid atlantic coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yes, I want to see the totals for Mt Pocono over to Lake Harmony and Albrightsville (around 2,000 ft where my summer home is)Hey neighbor....I think front loaders will be required at 2100ft. All depends if there is mix. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Slightly warmer 0z run of Euro was enough to push the heavy icing just NW of I-95. 850 mb freeze line gets pushed up a little further to the north this time with the very strong SW LLJ WAA aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Monday is going to be fine. Just very icy spots. wind chills may be as cold as -15 monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: wind chills may be as cold as -15 monday. I think he was talking about precip wise but you are right. Very dangerous cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Slightly warmer 0z run of Euro was enough to push the heavy icing just NW of I-95. 850 mb freeze line gets pushed up a little further to the north this time with the very strong SW LLJ WAA aloft. Euro looked colder on stormvista along with the eps. I still think this goes further southeast but we are running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 am NWS point and click forecast for my area has taken out any mention of sleet or mixing for my area Saturday through Sunday. At least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro looked colder on stormvista along with the eps. I still think this goes further southeast but we are running out of time. The models never really waivered on the strength of the WAA with the LLJ. At least we get the front end thump ahead of the P-Type issues. Hopefully, we can get a measurement in the park before the mixing occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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