USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Quite possible. Need an early transfer to really get the business.I don't believe this transfers. I believe this is truly baroclinically driven. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCGreg said: I think we're pretty clear on where you stand on this; you don't think it's going to snow a lot. I don't as of now. 850s are +5 at the height of the precip even on the UK. Can change but we're really not that far out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I don't believe this transfers. I believe this is truly baroclinically driven. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk It goes from almost up to Pittsburgh South and east to Southern Maryland. Nothing could force it to travel south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: I don't as of now. 850s are +5 at the height of the precip even on the UK. Can change but we're really not that far out now. We're three or four days out. The models are a joke that far out. I'm not saying things are going to change; frankly, I don't really care. But I don't think it serves a purpose to repeat It Gon Rain every five minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I don't as of now. 850s are +5 at the height of the precip even on the UK. Can change but we're really not that far out now. Question for you sir. The Ukie paints 8-12 for NYC and the north shore of LI. Doesn’t that take into account the mix/ mid level warmth at 850? Or perhaps that 8-12 includes a boatload of sleet and is there a bloated nunber? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It goes from almost up to Pittsburgh South and east to Southern Maryland. Nothing could force it to travel south Im saying it's a model depiction. I believe thr Ukie has the right idea but it's not there yet. I don't believe this is a transfer situation. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I still believe that this ends up as more snow for the region than we think. I believe the LP does not make it up to Pittsburgh as shown verbatim, for reasons I've laid it before. Now.. We wait and see. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Is there a map showing the primary in Pittsburgh? Maybe I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Jason215 said: Question for you sir. The Ukie paints 8-12 for NYC and the north shore of LI. Doesn’t that take into account the mix/ mid level warmth at 850? Or perhaps that 8-12 includes a boatload of sleet and is there a bloated nunber? Just a guess but boatload of sleet and 3-6" of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, USCG RS said: Im saying it's a model depiction. I believe thr Ukie has the right idea but it's not there yet. I don't believe this is a transfer situation. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Thank you. it is a low moving east based on the boundary. We all need that boundary to setup to the south. All you need to do when a model runs is look at Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Jason215 said: Question for you sir. The Ukie paints 8-12 for NYC and the north shore of LI. Doesn’t that take into account the mix/ mid level warmth at 850? Or perhaps that 8-12 includes a boatload of sleet and is there a bloated nunber? Its bloated. Vast majority of precip falls with above freezing 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Just a guess but boatload of sleet and 3-6" of snow. Sounds about right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Just a guess but boatload of sleet and 3-6" of snow. 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Just a guess but boatload of sleet and 3-6" of snow. Gotcha! Thanks. I’ll be at Belleayre Mtn this weekend. Hoping we are get clobbered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Is there a map showing the primary in Pittsburgh? Maybe I missed it. Not quite Pittsburgh but northern WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Its bloated. Vast majority of precip falls with above freezing 850s. Ok thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Not quite Pittsburgh but northern WV and it doesn't transfer it just heads east. This is what you want up in NYC. That is why you see the snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Rjay said: PA getting demolished at 78. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 How are surface temps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 At least there's something before we lose the midlevels in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Surface temps?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Step towards the Ukie. Though verbatim that's a torch. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Step towards the Ukie. Though verbatim that's a torch. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Yeah. ~+7 @850.(previous frame) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 986 low but no back precipitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 We're really not that far off from something nice for the NYC area. Being 72+ hours out, we can still get things to shift a bit in our favor. Have to wait and see what the next day or two bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, paweather said: and it doesn't transfer it just heads east. This is what you want up in NYC. That is why you see the snow totals. Well the snow totals are high because the models are assuming anything frozen is a 10:1 ratio. Since 70% looks like sleet or freezing rain accumulations would be nowhere near what the snowmaps show 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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