HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: No 32 will do...cold surface already. It’s freezing duh that rain will take to freeze but it will If theres a lot of snow and/or sleet on the ground it would probably lead to possible more icing but I still don't see it being a huge deal at 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: Even in the 20s, if it's pouring there will likely be a lot of run off. Yeah, again I agree but mid 20s you're going to have some issues. 31° is absolutely fine here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: No 32 will do...cold surface already. It’s freezing duh that rain will take to a bit of time to freeze but it will No it won't. Torrential 32° rain might as well be 50° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Well I personally think a lot of people will be disappointed including those in SNE. It'll probably just be another heavy rainstorm for us. The one after will def be all rain too and then maybe the pattern will get better. What are you talking about? There’s plenty of potential in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: If theres a lot of snow and/or sleet on the ground it would probably lead to possible more icing but I still don't see it being a huge deal at 32 I’ve seen numerous times where it got stuck at 32 with a lot of Ivey roads and branches. You’re going to have a flash freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Have to lol at the irony of the CMC going from most amped/NW model for quite some time, to now being of the further SE albeit still quite a ways off for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, again I agree but mid 20s you're going to have some issues. 31° is absolutely fine here. Oh def. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: What are you talking about? There’s plenty of potential in the long range At some point, potential has to become reality, or it's a waste of time. Sometimes cutters are precursors to our biggest storms, so hopefully this is one of those instances, even if this is not a classic cutter. As for this storm, well, I'm glad we get instantaneous bad news when it comes in. Good news tends to lag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Have to lol at the irony of the CMC going from most amped/NW model for quite some time, to now being of the further SE albeit still quite a ways off for us. Just goes to show you that no one model has this yet... let’s see what the UK and EURO have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I’ve seen numerous times where it got stuck at 32 with a lot of Ivey roads and branches. You’re going to have a flash freeze Yeah if it's a drizzle. A flash freeze is basically a lock but precip is basically cut off at that stage. Ice accretion can't occur without rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Oh def. For nyc proper.. Yes. Outside of NYC, different story, especially with snow on the front end cooling the ground pretty well. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 When does Ukie come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, USCG RS said: For nyc proper.. Yes. Outside of NYC, different story, especially with snow on the front end cooling the ground pretty well. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Agree there could be a very sharp cutoff with this in terms of frozen mess vs mainly wet and it may not be very far from the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 You can see some of that CAD on the Canadian over in MD/PA. At least the GFS/GGEM weren't more amped this time. Best models, Ukie & Euro to come. If those two keep amping things up then it's probably a wrap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Have to lol at the irony of the CMC going from most amped/NW model for quite some time, to now being of the further SE albeit still quite a ways off for us. A hundred miles further s/e and hmmm...nothing would surprise me....believe me this is better to at least be somewhat in play unlike the 80's which except for 83 sucked big time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Have to lol at the irony of the CMC going from most amped/NW model for quite some time, to now being of the further SE albeit still quite a ways off for us. Looks like billy is all snow according to Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You can see some of that CAD on the Canadian over in MD/PA. At least the GFS/GGEM weren't more amped this time. Best models, Ukie & Euro to come. If those two keep amping things up then it's probably a wrap. The GFS and the GGEM aren't even close to each other. The models are still pretty far apart but even the most SE/Coldest models are not showing a snowstorm for the coast so thats why I'm saying be realistic, this is at best case a front end dump scenario and the only real question is how much does the surface torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: No 32 will do...cold surface already. It’s freezing duh that rain will take to a bit of time to freeze but it will The reason it doesn't work that way is that when water freezes it releases heat. At 32 there is no where for the temperature to go but above freezing. The net effect is there is no net ice accumulation at 32 degrees. Rain falling on a colder surface would freeze. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The GFS and the GGEM aren't even close to each other. The models are still pretty far apart but even the most SE/Coldest models are not showing a snowstorm for the coast so thats why I'm saying be realistic, this is at best case a front end dump scenario and the only real question is how much does the surface torch. Being honest, I don't believe the surface torches. The question will become how thick a warm layer are we dealing with. Also, if this shifts further SE (still very much in the cards. Imo), the coast is very much in play. The coast is within a standard deviation shift of a good bit of snow. This is very possible, especially with the system itself not ashore yet and the HP bringing very brutal cold. We have seen many times where cold. Is significantly undermodeled. This cold is brutal. Speed and location is still being worked out. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Grabbed from NE, if that's 0z UK as advertised the panels might be an interesting view. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Grabbed from NE, if that's 0z UK as advertised the panels might be an interesting view. Crush job look. It kinda looks like ukmet yesterday 12z that was all snow for the city. Still trending southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Good ukie images ~12-1220 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: The reason it doesn't work that way is that when water freezes it releases heat. At 32 there is no where for the temperature to go but above freezing. The net effect is there is no net ice accumulation at 32 degrees. Rain falling on a colder surface would freeze. Good point about the enthalpy (heat) liberated by the freezing process, but that is only a factor for bare surfaces; for locations that get several inches of snow before the changeover to sleet and then freezing rain, that large mass of frozen snow/sleet will more than absorb the small amount of heat generated by the rain freezing on top of the slush. That exothermicity plays a much larger role when there's no heat sink (snow/sleet) on the ground. A snowpack could also be the savior for areas that get a lot of ZR after the snow/sleet, as the rain will simply be absorbed into the snowpack, rather than freezing on contact with surfaces, as occurs when there's no snow on the ground. The resulting slush, possibly with a crust on top will be far less of an issue than getting 0.5-1.0" of ZR on bare ground. Trees/powerlines could still be an issue though as snow/sleet might not accumulate on those well enough to absorb the falling ZR. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: Crush job look. It kinda looks like ukmet yesterday 12z that was all snow for the city. Still trending Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Grabbed from NE, if that's 0z UK as advertised the panels might be an interesting view. Agreed.... looks very interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Holy ish 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 and the Queen has spoken lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Holy ishSlow moving crush job. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Holy ishSlow. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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