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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay
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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NYC’s ceiling on this event is probably 7-8 inches.  If I had to guess now I would say they’ll get 3-5 

We usually don't even do that much in these kinds of storms, we usually top out about 1-2 before plain rain. What concerns me here is the potential for ice on top of those few inches, which would really be dangerous. But I freely admit that I'm no expert, and I have a hard time right now trying to prepare. What time do we expect this whole show to start? I've got a kid coming home by bus from DC Sat night. I don't trust big commercial buses on ice. Worried dad here.

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16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM evolution is odd.  It’s almost as if it has a separate WAA event up this way and in New England and tries to just break off the surface low down over the MA

The one weakness of the NAM seems to be spinning up bogus mesolows. Especially when there is a baggy or elongated surface low pressure field.

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Just now, ny10019 said:

dumb question what is a CAD

Don't be embarrassed there are all kinds of abbreviations that I gave up on here. CAD, NAO, EPO and ENSO are the ones ya gotta really know; you'll pick up the rest eventually. And you don't really need to know all of them to understand the forecasts.

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2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Don't be embarrassed there are all kinds of abbreviations that I gave up on here. CAD, NAO, EPO and ENSO are the ones ya gotta really know; you'll pick up the rest eventually. And you don't really need to know all of them to understand the forecasts.

Thanks! NAP EPO ENSO I've got; CAD is a new one.

Appreciate everyones input, especially during this frenetic model discussions :) 

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Just now, ny10019 said:

Thanks! NAP EPO ENSO I've got; CAD is a new one.

Appreciate everyones input, especially during this frenetic model discussions :) 

Those types of questions are ones that should ALWAYS be asked even in model threads. Between plenty of people being too embarrassed to ask, the imby questions, and the posters who only show up during bad model runs, having actual meteorological discussion is a nice break. 

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Just now, BxEngine said:

Those types of questions are ones that should ALWAYS be asked even in model threads. Between plenty of people being too embarrassed to ask, the imby questions, and the posters who only show up during bad model runs, having actual meteorological discussion is a nice break. 

Very much agree.  If the ice storm threat continues it would be nice to see some input on thermal profiles/droplet size in relation to surface freezing/surface temperatures since we so rarely see serious freezing rain events.

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29 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NYC’s ceiling on this event is probably 7-8 inches.  If I had to guess now I would say they’ll get 3-5 

I understand that. He is entertaining an all snow /mostly snow event which as modeled consists of 1.5"+ liquid QPF just North of 0 @ 850. That would be double digit totals

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3 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

If this thing trends another 30 miles south it’s all snow for New York City simple as that

Disagree.   It's an even worse ice storm.   You need a Ukie solution from 12z yesterday.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It says something when the Euro and EPS have been showing the same storm evolution every run going back to last weekend. It usually does pretty well when it locks in early. The Euro/EPS have been indicating P-type issues for days.

I somewhat disagree with this.  The Euro def has the storm signal last weekend but for the last few days it was showing too much early phasing with the pv lobe.  The end result was much warmer runs at the surface for our sunforum in general.  It's backed off that idea a lot over the last 2 runs.

48 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Upton’s new point and click for Rockland County has “little to no snow accumulations” Saturday night and is calling for sleet and freezing rain Saturday night and Sunday. I guess they are thinking that there’s going to be a very strong midlevel warm punch

As modeled there will be a heavy thump of snow there before any changeover.  I think the changeover is inevitable unless this ends up like the Ukie showed yesterday afternoon.

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56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Upton’s new point and click for Rockland County has “little to no snow accumulations” Saturday night and is calling for sleet and freezing rain Saturday night and Sunday. I guess they are thinking that there’s going to be a very strong midlevel warm punch

Exactly what mine says for me in Vernon at over 1200' elevation. 

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4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

Disagree.   It's an even worse ice storm.   You need a Ukie solution from 12z yesterday.

I somewhat disagree with this.  The Euro def has the storm signal last weekend but for the last few days it was showing too much early phasing with the pv lobe.  The end result was much warmer runs at the surface for our sunforum in general.  It's backed off that idea a lot over the last 2 runs.

As modeled there will be a heavy thump of snow there before any changeover.  I think the changeover is inevitable unless this ends up like the Ukie showed yesterday afternoon.

Mostly commenting on the evolution and storm structure with the very strong SW WAA just above the surface. Funny how it had the stronger CAD over the weekend before backing off and now coming back to it. So that could be a sign that the exact zone of the heaviest freezing may still fluctuatate in the coming days.

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19 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Very much agree.  If the ice storm threat continues it would be nice to see some input on thermal profiles/droplet size in relation to surface freezing/surface temperatures since we so rarely see serious freezing rain events.

I really hope some of our more knowledgeable posters step up.

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