White Gorilla Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I'm about 20 miles north of 84 and Im just hoping the freezing rain stays south of me. Hate the ice. I'll take the snow and little bit of sleet. I live where you are and agree violently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's very close If this thing trends another 30 miles south it’s all snow for New York City simple as that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: He’s right. If it happens the way the Euro just showed it is definitely not staying snow. There will be massive midlevel warming in such a setup Yes I know that and he's right about what the Euro is showing. What I'm contesting is him saying that the all snow event near the coast "isn't happening, period". It's too early to make definitive statements. In any event, we should all pray that this trends colder or warmer because, verbatim, these recent model runs are depicting a disastrous ice storm. I prefer 50 and rain over what the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's not happening, period. The WAA will simply not allow it. This has always been a snow to rain vs snow to ice, depending on surface temps. Pretty sure you said to wait til Thursday before making any definitive statements 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, this would be a huge win for the Euro if it verifies. Remember how it showed this solution last weekend. Probably need to get to writhin 24-48 hrs to know where the most dangerous icing sets up. This could be quite the freezing rain and sleet event. Every model has the midlevels torching. Usually the midlevel warm punch always verifies warmer as you close in on the storm. The low level jet is going to be screaming in from the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: If this thing trends another 30 miles south it’s all snow for New York City simple as that No it's not. You need it east early to stop the mid level flamethrower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Here’s the Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 why would trends suddenly stop at 84 hours? we have at least two days of watching to go 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, kat5hurricane said: Yes I know that and he's right about that. What I'm contesting is him saying that the all snow event near the coast "isn't happening, period". It's too early to make definitive statements. In any event, we should all pray that this trends colder or warmer because, verbatim, these recent model runs are depicting a disastrous ice storm. I prefer 50 and rain over what the Euro is showing. It's not happening. The reason is because the primary tracks up the Ohio Valley. The reason we are seeing so much heavy precip is a testament to the amount of warm air advection that is occurring. All that warm air aloft is overriding the cold, arctic air at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Pretty sure you said to wait til Thursday before making any definitive statements Yes I did say that, however the primary low tracks up to at least West Virginia on every piece of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro is back to the big ice storm for the NYC Metro that it was showing last weekend. But with high winds and much of this precip falling quickly, how much ice actually accumulates on exposed power lines and roads? Just because 1.8" of precip falls, doesn't mean it actually accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 If you're going to get more snow at the coast you need the primary to die off even faster, while it's down in the Kentucky area. I really don't see that happening since we don't have any blocking. The only reason we're even contemplating this as a snowstorm is because the primary dies off now instead of tracking into New England. All a result of the Southern shortwave getting far enough out ahead of the trough so that the phase happens after the storm is much further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Non Kuchera prior to transition to freezing rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yes I did say that, however the primary low tracks up to at least West Virginia on every piece of guidance. Sure right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: But with high winds and much of this precip falling quickly, how much ice actually accumulates on exposed power lines and roads? Just because 1.8" of precip falls, doesn't mean it actually accumulates. When the temperature is 20 degrees moving water can freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: But with high winds and much of this precip falling quickly, how much ice actually accumulates on exposed power lines and roads? Just because 1.8" of precip falls, doesn't mean it actually accumulates. Correct you won't see as much ice accretion as you would if the rain was lighter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Sure right now What could occur synoptically that would cause the primary to die faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Correct you won't see as much ice accretion as you would if the rain was lighter That's not true with temps this cold. 20 degrees will cause everything to freeze on contact. If it gets to 30 that's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: What could occur synoptically that would cause the primary to die faster? I have no idea but we've seen massive changes past 72 hours before. Could still end up a big rainstorm for all we know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yes I did say that, however the primary low tracks up to at least West Virginia on every piece of guidance. The guidance is still trending and there's a lot of evolving factors so IMO, it would be foolish to write off any scenario now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'm not sure we've ever seen heavy rain with temps in the lower to mid 20's. I certainly cannot recall it previously. Try harder. It may not have happened in your backyard but it has several times 40-50 miles north of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Would an even later phase with the PV result in a further south and east LP center resulting a shift in the wind direction to more snow/sleet and less rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Would love to see euro soundings for nyc area. Does anyone have them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, gravitylover said: Try harder. It may not have happened in your backyard but it has several times 40-50 miles north of you. Oh I don't doubt that it has for areas up into NY or far NW NJ. I mean for the immediate suburbs and NYC proper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I have no idea but we've seen massive changes past 72 hours before. Could still end up a big rainstorm for all we know This could easily go back north over the next 60 hours. As a matter of fact the storm that hit DCA just pretty much did that. Trended south from 120-84 then went 100 miles north after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This could easily go back north over the next 60 hours. As a matter of fact the storm that hit DCA just pretty much did that. Trended south from 120-84 then went 100 miles north after The southern December storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: The southern December storm as well. The trend this year has been south. Period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Would an even later phase with the PV result in a further south and east LP center resulting a shift in the wind direction to more snow/sleet and less rain?The primary.. I highly doubt goes as far north as currently depicted. I know I keep beating this drum.. But this storm is baroclynicly driven. It's not going to just shoot north and redevelop imo. Since the temperature gradient will be pushing SE, more than likely this storm just shoots across the Cumberland Gap. This allows for colder air to truly filter in. This is why I am calling for colder / snowier conditions for the tri state.This is an overrunning event imp, not a phase or transfer. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This could easily go back north over the next 60 hours. As a matter of fact the storm that hit DCA just pretty much did that. Trended south from 120-84 then went 100 miles north after ...or continue its march south. I would think that every storm system is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This could easily go back north over the next 60 hours. As a matter of fact the storm that hit DCA just pretty much did that. Trended south from 120-84 then went 100 miles north after That was because of a healthier PNA. This time the PNA is fragile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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