Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay
 Share

Recommended Posts

18 minutes ago, cyclone31 said:

So many white towels being throw and it's only Tuesday

It's just people reacting to what they see as the probabilities resulting from some degree of recent run-to-run consistency on the part of the GFS with some confirmation from the Euro 4 days out + a lack of blocking. We will have to see what the next day or so brings. I don't think people are completely giving up, just expressing what the current likely scenario might be. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Its comical how guys pack it in from model run to model run. The low is 2 days away from being on land and just a short while ago people were pumped by the Ukie ,,,still lots of time the runs will change again I have little doubt .

True but at this rate in 6 or 7 runs the gfs will have the storm in Maine 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When you look at the GFS at 18Z and the Euro as the system is tracking across the Oh valley you can sense it is about to try to undercut and slide under the high.  I kept thinking here it goes here it goes here it goes it’s going to try and redevelop the center further south but it doesn’t.  This can still end up much better here.  Long way to go 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is a be careful what you wish for type of storm. Colder could mean more ice instead of snow with the CAD dueling with the WAA just above the surface.

 

 

I'm not really impressed with the CAD, antecedent airmass is pretty marginal. Unless the Thursday system really digs and brings colder air in, then I don't believe the CAD will hold very long.

Subsequently the stronger the Thursday system is and the more it amplifies, the more likely the next one would end up further south.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

When you look at the GFS at 18Z and the Euro as the system is tracking across the Oh valley you can sense it is about to try to undercut and slide under the high.  I kept thinking here it goes here it goes here it goes it’s going to try and redevelop the center further south but it doesn’t.  This can still end up much better here.  Long way to go 

On the GFS it really appears to want pop a secondary SLP over TN at 102. Can even see wind wind rotation.(at least I want to:lol:)

20190115_180735.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Southern piece won’t be onshore for almost another 48 hours. Since the timing and placement compared to the trough coming down from the plains is so critical, I would really hold off on making any predictions, probabilities or definitive statements. 

Sticking to what we do know, we have a very moisture laden system coming out of the Ohio valley and high pressure over Northern New England which is a great starting point. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not really impressed with the CAD, antecedent airmass is pretty marginal. Unless the Thursday system really digs and brings colder air in, then I don't believe the CAD will hold very long.

Subsequently the stronger the Thursday system is and the more it amplifies, the more likely the next one would end up further south.  

Thursday is gonna be flat.  Pretty much everything is headed that way.  It’s increasingly likely everyone but south shore of LI will see snow 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Upton has thrown in the towel - we were fooled again at the beginning of the week …...

SO ALONG THE  
COAST BEGAN AS ALL RAIN WITH A BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW  
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS IN. AGAIN,  
THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND NO COLD AIR DAMMING.  
HOWEVER, THERE IS A TREND TOWARD MORE PHASING OF SOME NORTHERN  
STREAM ENERGY AND THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE. WITH A DEEP MOISTURE  
FEED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. MAINLY A RAIN EVENT, EXCEPT WELL  
INLAND.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not really impressed with the CAD, antecedent airmass is pretty marginal. Unless the Thursday system really digs and brings colder air in, then I don't believe the CAD will hold very long.

Subsequently the stronger the Thursday system is and the more it amplifies, the more likely the next one would end up further south.  

Following past storms, precipitation should start sooner than predicted and if that’s the case and we get a lot of overrunning on Saturday night it could really change the end result.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Upton has thrown in the towel - we were fooled again at the beginning of the week …...

SO ALONG THE  
COAST BEGAN AS ALL RAIN WITH A BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW  
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS IN. AGAIN,  
THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND NO COLD AIR DAMMING.  
HOWEVER, THERE IS A TREND TOWARD MORE PHASING OF SOME NORTHERN  
STREAM ENERGY AND THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE. WITH A DEEP MOISTURE  
FEED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. MAINLY A RAIN EVENT, EXCEPT WELL  
INLAND.

They are following the Euro/GFS blend hard and I can’t say I blame them however we still have plenty of time for significant changes.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Upton has thrown in the towel - we were fooled again at the beginning of the week …...

SO ALONG THE  
COAST BEGAN AS ALL RAIN WITH A BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW  
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS IN. AGAIN,  
THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND NO COLD AIR DAMMING.  
HOWEVER, THERE IS A TREND TOWARD MORE PHASING OF SOME NORTHERN  
STREAM ENERGY AND THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE. WITH A DEEP MOISTURE  
FEED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. MAINLY A RAIN EVENT, EXCEPT WELL  
INLAND.

There is no waffling there. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thursday is gonna be flat.  Pretty much everything is headed that way.  It’s increasingly likely everyone but south shore of LI will see snow 
In other words... This weekend storm looks colder.

No you did not say that... Just extrapolating.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Upton has thrown in the towel - we were fooled again at the beginning of the week …...

SO ALONG THE  
COAST BEGAN AS ALL RAIN WITH A BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW  
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS IN. AGAIN,  
THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND NO COLD AIR DAMMING.  
HOWEVER, THERE IS A TREND TOWARD MORE PHASING OF SOME NORTHERN  
STREAM ENERGY AND THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE. WITH A DEEP MOISTURE  
FEED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. MAINLY A RAIN EVENT, EXCEPT WELL  
INLAND.

Do you work for Upton ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

I think sometimes the inexperienced crew comes in for the overnights.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Was that not written this afternoon?  That would be the 8-4pm shift.  Mostly everyone rotates through everything at the NWS.  Seniority doesn’t help much outside of taking vacation  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We seem to be finishing out of the money and nearly out of the snow race by 100-200 miles on this leftover EURO from earlier today.     The next two events after this look like close calls too.   The big one is going to be a surprise event in my opinion.   Model continuity does not exist at this time.    Meteorologists sound a lot like economists at these times.     One of those meteorologists sounds like a lawyer---with himself as the client.

ecmwf_tsnow_3h_conus2_49.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...