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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay
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Just now, NJwx85 said:

I don't think you have to worry much about snow or ice down in Toms River. Even the snowiest models give coastal NJ all rain.

I think everyone starts as snow, and coastal nj changes to rain an washes away most of what falls. This is def an inland setup even in the colder scenarios. What could be the big issue for the coast and city is a flash freeze on the back end. 

Obviously this is extremely speculative right now 

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5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

without snow cover here that severe cold will not be as severe and will not look or feel that bad....

some outbreaks had no snow cover...the ground was bare in Feb. 2016 ...

NYC's Arctic outbreaks...
Max..Min...dates

22.....06.....0........0.....0...2/13-14/2016

15......-1.....0........0.....0

35.....13.....0........0.....0

.......................................................................
17.....09.....0........0.....0...1/14-16/2004
18.....02.....0........0.....0
24.....01.....0........0.....0
....................................................................
29.....06...0.06...2.5......3"...1/9-11/2004
15.....01...0.09...3.2......5"
27.....07.....0........0.......4"
........................................................................
42.....32.....T........T........3".....1/25-27/1994
32.....05...0.32...4.5.......7"...
31.....00...0.06...0.1.......7"
.........................................................................
35.....04...0.22...1.0.......5"...1/18-20/1994
10......-2.....0........0........5"
15.....00.....0........0........5"
.......................................................................
23.....04...0.02...0.5.......3"....1/20-22/1985
09......-2.....0........0........3"
31.....09.....0........0........3"
..........................................
............................................................................
35.....19.....0........0.....6"...1/16-18/1982
19.....00.....0........0.....5"
15.....00.....0........0.....5"
..........................................................................
37.....20...0.10...1.0.....1"...12/24-26/1980
20......-1.....0........0......T
23.....08.....0........0......T
.............................................................................
13.....04.....0........0......3"...2/17-19/1979
17.....00.....0........0......3"
28.....17...0.85" 12.7" 16"
.............................................................................
26.....07...0.06...0.6.....6"...1/16-18/1977
12......-2.....0........0......6"
13.....02.....0........0......6"
..........................................................................
28.....05.....0........0.......1"...1/22-24/1976
15......-1.....T........T........1"
22.....14.....0........0........1"
.............................................................................
13.....02.....0........0.......3"...1/8-10/1968
14......-1...0.03...0.4......3"
17.....03.....T........T........3"
............................................................................
44.....25.....0........0.....0...2/7-9/1963
25......-2.....0........0.....0
34.....11......T........T.....0
.........................................................................
24.....03.....0........0.....8"...2/1-3/1961
20......-2.....0........0.....8"
28.....07...0.60...6.0...14"
..........................................................................
23.....06.....0........0.....0...1/14-16/1957
12.....00...0.06...2.0....2"
25.....11...0.16...2.9....4"
........................................................................
28.....10...0.30...3.6.....4"..2/2-4/1955
17.....00.....0........0......3"
37.....08.....0........0......3"
........................................................................
24.....04.....0........0.......9"...1/30-2/1/1948
20.....00.....0........0.......9"
26.....09.....0........0.......9"
.........................................................................
30.....05.....0........0.......2"..2/14-16/1943
08......-8.....0........0.......2"....
22.....04.....0........0.......1"
..........................................................................
25.....08.....T........T.......1"...12/19-21/1942
08......-4.....0........0.......1"
21......-1.....0........0.......1"
...........................................................................
24......-3.....T.........T.......5".....1/23-25/1936
16.....04.....0.........0.......5"
20.....08.....0.........0.......5"
...........................................................................
18.....02.....0.........0.....11".....1/27-29/1935
25......-1.....0.........0....10"
34.....16.....T.........T.......8"
..........................................................................
21......-7.....0.........0.......3".....2/8-10/1934
08....-15.....0.........0.......3"
26......-2.....0.........0.......3"
..........................................................................
12......-3.....0.........0.......9".....12/29-31/1933
15......-6.....T.........T.......9"
42.....15.....0.........0.......7"
........................................................................
36.....03.....0.........0.......0.....1/25-27/1927
25......-1.....0.........0.......0
44.....22...0.02".....T.......0
.........................................................................
42.....04...0.60"...4.9"...10".....1/27-29/1925
14......-2...0.02"...0.2"...10"
34.....13...0.75"...1.3"...11"
.........................................................................
30.....05...0.04"...0.4".....4".....2/16-18/1922
17......-2.....0.........0......4"
34.....08.....0.........0......4"
........................................................................
26......-1.....0.........0.......3".....1/31-2/2/1920
24......-2.....T.........T.......3"
40.....22.....0.........0.......2"
...........................................................................
21.....01...0.05"...1.8".....2".....12/17-19/1919
11......-1.....0.........0.......2"
20.....10...0.11"...1.9".....3"
...........................................................................
31.....00.....0.........0........6".......2/4-6/1918
04......-6.....0.........0........6"
38.....01.....0.........0........5"
...........................................................................
08......-6.....0.12"...2.0".....3".....12/29-1/4 1917-18
02.....-13......0.........0.......3"
06......-7.......0.........0.......3"
10......-4.......0.........0.......3"
10.....02.......T.........T.......3"
12.....00.......0.........0.......2"
18......-3.......0.........0.......2"
.............................................
23.....08.....0.........0........0......2/11-13/1917
12.....03.....0.........0........0
24.....00.....0.........0........0
............................................
21.....02......T.........T.......T.....2/11-13/1914
10......-3......0........0.......T
26......-1...0.29"....1.6"....2"
...............................................
33.....09......T.........T.......0.....01/12-14/1914
09......-3......0........0.......0
18......-5......0........0.......0
............................................
19.....05....0.35"....3.5"....3".....1/12-14/1912
08......-3......0.........0.......3"
23.....02......0.........0.......2"
.........................................
26.....12......0.........0.......T.....2/9-11/1912
13.....00......0.........0.......T
21......-1......0.........0.......T
..............................................
11......-2.......0........0.....6" est...2/9-13/1899
07......-6.......0........0.....6" est
09......-2.......0........0.....6" est
09.....04.....0.23....5.3...10" est
11.....06.....0.47...10.7...20" est
..............................................
44.....06.....0.02....0.5....T...2/16-18/1896
07......-5........0........0.....T
26.....01........0........0.....T
.....................................................................

18.....06........0........0.....0...1/5-7/1896
12......-2........0........0.....0
25.....06........0........0.....0
...............................................
11.....00........0........0....3" est...2/5-8/1895
10......-4.......0........0....3" est
13.....06.....0.17....2.5..5" est
08.....02.....0.13....2.5..7" est
...............................................
16.....01........0........0.....T est...1/21-23/1888
14.....00........0........0.....T est
24.....07........0........0.....T est
.............................................
12.....00.....0.10....1.0"....4" est...2/4-6/1886
07......-4........0........0......4" est
20.....03.....0.01"....0.2"...4" est
...............................................
16.....07........0........0.....3" est...1/11-13/1886
08.....02........0........0.....2" est
14.....02........0........0.....2" est...
...............................................
16......-1........0........0.....T...12/19-21/1884
07......-3........0........0.....T
36.....07........0........0.....T
...................................................
25.....10........0........0.....6" est...12/22-24/1883
10......-1.....0.01....0.1....6" est
31.....07.....0.80....7.5"..12" est
..............................................
13.....00........0........0.....0-t  est 1/23-25/1882
06......-6........0........0.....0
29.....03.....0.32....0.5....T est...
..........................................
21.....03.....0.10....2.0"est 4" est...2/1-3/1881
09......-3........0........0......3" est
18.....01........0........0......3" est
.......................................
32.....10........0.........0......T est...12/28-1/1/1880-81
10.....04.....0.28....4.0".....4" est
04......-6........0.........0......3" est
10.....03........0.........0......3" est
16.....01........0.........0......2" est
..........................................
33.....03.....0.15"....0.0"....2" est...1/2-4/1879
07......-4........0.........0......2" est
26.....06........0.........0......1" est

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I know improvement is a relative concept, but I really hesitate to convey positive ideas when the 850 low tracks from Erie to Quebec City. Model agreement is actually very good at this point, so with so much ground to make up, I'd think that you would want to see either wholesale changes in the next few cycles or reliable, meaningful increments from here on out.

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Just now, Juliancolton said:

I know improvement is a relative concept, but I really hesitate to convey positive ideas when the 850 low tracks from Erie to Quebec City. Model agreement is actually very good at this point, so with so much ground to make up, I'd think that you want to see either wholesale changes in the next few cycles or reliable, meaningful increments from here on out.

Agreed. Going to need a widescale cave to UK/ICON and quickly.

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Just now, Brasiluvsnow said:

Its comical how guys pack it in from model run to model run. The low is 2 days away from being on land and just a short while ago people were pumped by the Ukie ,,,still lots of time the runs will change again I have little doubt .

It's great to have the UK on our side and actually trending South. But it's only got the ICON and IBM DT with it. Everything else is a mid 50s torch.

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Just now, bluewave said:

This is a be careful what you wish for type of storm. Colder could mean more ice instead of snow with the CAD dueling with the WAA just above.

For sure a significant ice storm from the city north west is on the table. Power outages with the cold coming behind will not be fun for anyone. 

I’m waiting to see where we are after things get sampled on Thursday before making any conclusions. It’s going to come down the the strength of the low and the amount of phasing with the tpv. A weaker less phased and faster solution is what we want. Something in the middle is the danger zone for ice 

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

For sure a significant ice storm from the city north west is on the table. Power outages with the cold coming behind will not be fun for anyone. 

I’m waiting to see where we are after things get sampled on Thursday before making any conclusions. It’s going to come down the the strength of the low and the amount of phasing with the tpv. A weaker less phased and faster solution is what we want. Something in the middle is the danger zone for ice 

Exactly, need a couple days for things to pan out and better sampling.  At least it's something to monitor, this winter so far hasn't been thrilling but we have a long way to go.  Last thing I want is a slopfest, the ponds around here are finally ready for icehockey.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is a be careful what you wish for type of storm. Colder could mean more ice instead of snow with the CAD dueling with the WAA just above the surface.

 

 

Exactly. Shallow cold at the surface doesn’t mean snow here at all. The midlevel lows are tracking way west of the area. All colder at the surface will mean is sleet (may even be too warm aloft for that) and freezing rain. The midlevels are going to be absolutely torching in a setup like the Euro/GFS/CMC are showing. There may be very minimal snow here and instead ice may be the real story

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3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

It's great to have the UK on our side and actually trending South. But it's only got the ICON and IBM DT with it. Everything else is a mid 50s torch.

Eric I totally get it,,,but does anyone really think that with 4 + days to go this is written in stone or that the runs tonight or tomorrow might not look different ? I also am willing to see how Thursdays event effects this if at all. 

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Just now, Brasiluvsnow said:

Eric I totally get it,,,but does anyone really think that with 4 + days to go this is written in stone or that the runs tonight or tomorrow might not look different ? I also am willing to see how Thursdays event effects this if at all. 

Not written in stone but the carvings in progress are becoming increasingly negative. 

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