hudsonvalley21 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, wdrag said: Has anyone discussed the potential for a combined flash freeze (not sure of definition but I'd say ~20F in 2 hours from above to below freezing) combined with ongoing precip, and couple of hours of n-nw wind gusts of ~45 MPH Sunday in our area. Seems like a possibility from all model guidance? If you wish, let me know your thoughts. Thanks. Walt The ZR threat in the inland areas is a concern along with the flash freezing. If the winds are also an issue, that could bring down trees and cause power issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 53 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Eh. We're not talking 36° on globals, we're talking 56° Dude, look at the gradient. It’s below freezing in Port Jervis. It’s not the magnitude of the warmth that’s relevant, it’s the tendency of the strong arctic high to undercut that warmth with low-level cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Dude, look at the gradient. It’s below freezing in Port Jervis. It’s not the magnitude of the warmth that’s relevant, it’s the tendency of the strong arctic high to undercut that warmth with low-level cold. Agree, also in the inland areas, it might be tough to scour out the CAD and with the 1-3 inches forecasted Thursday night inland, that will also help with keeping to surface temps cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 So, it's going to be really warm and then a lot of preceip is going to move in and we're going to get below freezing rapidly? What is the timing on this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 25 minutes ago, wdrag said: Has anyone discussed the potential for a combined flash freeze (not sure of definition but I'd say ~20F in 2 hours from above to below freezing) combined with ongoing precip, and couple of hours of n-nw wind gusts of ~45 MPH Sunday in our area. Seems like a possibility from all model guidance? If you wish, let me know your thoughts. Thanks. Walt I think that's going to be a big story around here, ala 1994 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The main reasons we are going to see more liquid then frozen this weekend is the EPO is going to briefly be positive and the MJO is going to be in an unfavorable phase for east coast snowstorms. Also any talk of flash freezes is pure speculation at this point IMO especially in the urban areas until we get within a couple days of the weekend event. IMO the Thursday night event could cause some travel headaches Friday morning with some front end frozen...…... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: The main reasons we are going to see more liquid then frozen this weekend is the EPO is going to briefly be positive and the MJO is going to be in an unfavorable phase for east coast snowstorms. Also any talk of flash freezes is pure speculation at this point IMO especially in the urban areas until we get within a couple days of the weekend event. IMO the Thursday night event could cause some travel headaches Friday morning with some front end frozen...…... I wouldn't say flash freeze potential is pure speculation. You have a 20-30° drop in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 00z UKMET has at least one other model on its side now w/ the 6Z run of Deep Thunder. Manages to get double digit totals into the city and absolutely buries PA to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: This looks like it could be a top 10 temperature gradient for this time of year. And keep in mind that’s the gradient that’s being shown by output from a global. Certainly would be tighter than that IRL if that solution came to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, purduewx80 said: 00z UKMET has at least one other model on its side now w/ the 6Z run of Deep Thunder. Manages to get double digit totals into the city and absolutely buries PA to BOS. Can you post that IBM for weenies sake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Can you post that IBM for weenies sake? they are cracking down on it, sorry. i'm sure someone else w/ access might share it though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, purduewx80 said: they are cracking down on it, sorry. i'm sure someone else w/ access might share it though... Could you DM, obviously wouldn't repost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Classic case of the primary low hanging around too long. It doesn't die off until it reaches the Philly area. That's why the GFS shows the low jumping from Philly to the Gulf of Maine in six hours. Now in reality, will that primary low make it that far North? Anybody's guess at this point. Blocking would have done us wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 You can see here how the jet strengthens which results in the redevelopment in the Gulf of Maine. If that low can redevelop sooner, it would flip the winds back out of the Northeast and would a game changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Could you DM, obviously wouldn't repost. like i said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: like i said... I've sourced it anyway. 10.4" for NYC NEPA,NW NJ, and Hudson valley jackpot. BOS 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 we need more pressing... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 They really post anything and everything in the NE thread and I'm grateful. IBM weenie model is amazingly similar to UK. Hopefully the UK doesn't go to Buffalo in a few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: It probably won’t go that far north, but for some reason the UK is often too far south with lows at the 120-144 hrs. Ukie has been nailing events lately. The other models might be too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z NAM definitely the coldest for Friday’s system, looks like snow for the entire region minus the east end of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said: 12z NAM definitely the coldest for Friday’s system, looks like snow for the entire region minus the east end of LI. I think we need that storm to really wind itself up in the gulf of Maine and into the maritimes a little to act as some sort of block for the follow up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edubbs83 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said: 12z NAM definitely the coldest for Friday’s system, looks like snow for the entire region minus the east end of LI. But qpf isn’t impressive. Maybe an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, mikem81 said: I think we need that storm to really wind itself up in the gulf of Maine and into the maritimes a little to act as some sort of block for the follow up Ya it came in slightly weaker which was unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: I think that's going to be a big story around here, ala 1994 Walt's scenario is very similar to what happened on 2/2/1976. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Walt's scenario is very similar to what happened on 2/2/1976. I was three years old and in awe of the cold and snow in New Hampshire for that one, so no recollection like I do in 94. I did find this on the Albany NWS page, which is clearly more extreme than the time I remember from 94. Quote February 2, 1976 Flash Freeze and Brief Blizzard At Albany, NY, the temperature fell from 41°F at midnight, to 1°F at 10:30 AM, with a 30 degree drop in the few hours before sunrise. Rain changed to snow and winds at Albany increased to 50 MPH with gusts to 67 MPH. Officially, only 3” of snow was measured at Albany, but visibility was near zero during morning commute. Roads were very icy and travel was seriously hampered. Two fatalities were reported; a man died from exposure to cold and another man was blown off a tug boat into the Hudson River and drowned. Winds downed trees and powerlines and caused some power outages and isolated structural damage. Brief blizzard conditions occurred across New York State with blizzard conditions reported in Buffalo and New York City. A long stretch of the NYS Thruway was closed. Strong northwest winds also caused a record low tide in New York Harbor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z ICON shifted the rain/snow line farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: The high pressure to our north is a bit stronger on this icon run resulting a much colder solution. Hopefully that’s a trend 4 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: 12z ICON shifted the rain/snow line farther north. Seriously which one is it?? We don’t need conflicting posts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Seriously which one is it?? We don’t need conflicting posts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Keep in mind that the ICON does not show mixed precipitation. For example at hour 126, NYC is sitting in the lower to mid 20's at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS looks like it will NW yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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