Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: If that PV stays in place, surface temps won't get out of the 20s. Agreed. But Anything close to this setup the mid levels are toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Some here are way over analyzing every run. Everything remains on the table from a crippling ice storm to a major blizzard to a big rainstorm, and everything in between. We should know better on Thursday when the energy comes onshore. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: No. But NYC sees over an inch of freezing rain. Widespread 1"-2.5" ice from NYC-BOS That would be catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Agreed. But Anything close to this setup the mid levels are toast. Oh yeah for sure. The final solution will depend on two things, a stronger/weaker ridge out west and the location/strength of the PV. I'm on the ice train for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Some here are way over analyzing every run. Everything remains on the table from a crippling ice storm to a major blizzard to a big rainstorm, and everything in between. We should know better on Thursday when the energy comes onshore. then can we over analyze every run? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: then can we over analyze every run? At least on Thursday you are 48-72 hours out and the details start to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 .25" of freezing rain is already very dangerous, imagine 1 inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 So suppression is the least likely scenario at this point, safe to assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, David-LI said: .25" of freezing rain is already very dangerous, imagine 1 inch? Believe me: none of us want that. Not in the least. With that cold shot coming after it, there will be a lot of people left without heat. I'll take more rain if it means we're warm in the house and I can scroll through this forum on my phone that has a full battery. tl;dr: I feel for whomever gets that ice, if it occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 11 hours ago, LibertyBell said: You were here for our big 30" snowstorm in Jan 2016 weren't you? I think I remember you chasing that one. Yes, except I documented that one from Washington, DC to Frederick, MD and up to Lancaster, PA. Didn't travel to NYC for that one, as I was focused on the Mid-AtlantIc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: So suppression is the least likely scenario at this point, safe to assume? Yeah but still possible with that PV. Look how it squashed the surface low on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: So suppression is the least likely scenario at this point, safe to assume? I would be weary of assuming anything at this stage. This could just be the start of the windshield wiper effect. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Not going to pay attention to track placement until NAM is in range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, David-LI said: Not going to pay attention to track placement until NAM is in range. Yeah -agree-if the magnitude of the cold is real-this could be ugly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 EPS torch fest too. Getting late early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 EPS torch fest too. Getting late early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 28 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: So suppression is the least likely scenario at this point, safe to assume? It could still happen. Especially if the lead wave is stronger on Friday. That disturbance will have an impact on the big storm in two ways. Possibly acting as a 50/50 odd the Canada coast and also by just impacting where the height/thermal gradient is setup after it traverses the area 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It could still happen. Especially if the lead wave is stronger on Friday. That disturbance will have an impact on the big storm in two ways. Possibly acting as a 50/50 odd the Canada coast and also by just impacting where the height/thermal gradient is setup after it traverses the area But what is the likelihood of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro not only is a torchfest this weekend but also becomes a disaster in the longer range with deep western trough and big SE ridge. Record warmth late January? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Wondering if snow cover laid down by the Friday storm could force a track further South than what models might suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Euro not only is a torchfest this weekend but also becomes a disaster in the longer range with deep western trough and big SE ridge. Record warmth late January? There`s a SE ridge ? There`s a western Trough ? huh 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Wondering if snow cover laid down by the Friday storm could force a track further South than what models might suggest. Absolutely. Allows for colder air to bleed further South, thus baroclynicity is pushed further SE. Happens quite a bit in winter with snow cover. LP systems take the path of least resistance and this is where the baroclynic gradient sets up. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Euro not only is a torchfest this weekend but also becomes a disaster in the longer range with deep western trough and big SE ridge. Record warmth late January? huh? Euro showing anomalously quite cold weather from 1/24-1/29, at least... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: get back to me end of month. nothing in NAO region to hold the WAR and MJO a problem Not what you said ..... You said there was a " big SE ridge and a trough in the west on the EPS in the long range " , was that just your opinion ? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Good news is inland areas probably finally get something with the first wave. Coast continues to be a question mark. A lot depends upon obviously exact track, how fast it moves in, how much the high is able to anchor the gradient more ENE or E vs SE-S as it departs the east. I do think ptype panels as of now on most models are too wet near the coast. Particularly for NYC, Queens, Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Not what you said ..... You said there was a " big SE ridge and a trough in the west on the EPS in the long range " , was that just your opinion ? Both the EURO/EPS are both AN on the 850mb T's and 500mb heights on each of the next 10 days. It appears to be growing worse with time too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Jeez the EPS got the anti Bermuda effect on this run. Often when we have a true coastal we see cases where several members skew the mean because they’re practically in Puerto Rico. This run is the reverse, a few members visiting the Fridge’s digs in Chicago skewed the living crap out of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Good news is inland areas probably finally get something with the first wave. Coast continues to be a question mark. A lot depends upon obviously exact track, how fast it moves in, how much the high is able to anchor the gradient more ENE or E vs SE-S as it departs the east. I do think ptype panels as of now on most models are too wet near the coast. Particularly for NYC, Queens, Bronx. Yeah, I think its primarily snow myself. Surface is a major issue though so it accumulating is probably a different story. End of run NAM is encouraging though and we all stay subfreezing and cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, CIK62 said: Both the EURO/EPS are both AN on the 850mb T's and 500mb heights on each of the next 10 days. It appears to be growing worse with time too. 1st of all they are not AN , second , you don`t know how to use " 850 anomalies " in mid Jan. If your N 850 on Jan 20 is - 8 and LP comes through , your 850`s can be - 1 ( A PLUS 7 ANOMALY ) and the surface would be 30 with a snowstorm. Stop using 850 anomalies in here in the heart of winter , low level 2 meter temps determine if you are AN or BN. To your 1st point , here`s day 5 -10 which includes a cutter. So it`s cold before and very cold after. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 42 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Wondering if snow cover laid down by the Friday storm could force a track further South than what models might suggest. It’s an old wives tale that snowcover forces storm tracks. Even if for arguments sake we had 2 feet of snowcover on the ground, a storm can still track right over the snowcover. If you get a strong enough shortwave amping up in the wrong spot it doesn’t matter if you have deep snowcover and unmodified arctic air at the surface, the low can still cut right over the snowcover and arctic air. People make this argument all the time and it’s simply not true. It’s happened many times in the past 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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