Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay
 Share

Recommended Posts

There is strong ensemble support for a winter storm in this time frame.  All storm related posts belong in here.  This will be the first of many threats in the coming weeks.  All pattern disco and threats beyond this period can go in the January Disco/obs thread.

And yes, I just started a thread for a storm ~7 days away.  As we get closer to the 20th, banter will need to be limited.  I hope everyone enjoys tracking this storm.  Good luck to all.     

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Rjay pinned this topic
Just now, Ericjcrash said:

There goes the threat. GEFS look as good as you could hope for a week out. Basically a BM track.

The ensemble support is overwhelming at this point for an impactful storm for our subforum..  No need to wait.   This will be one long ass thread.  

  • Like 3
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The Weather Channel point and click  for NYC has 5-8 inches Saturday night and 5-8 inches Sunday.

10-16 inches lol

Irresponsible to be putting out specific totals at long-range.  Of course, it's the "Weenie" channel (TWC)...so no surprise; all about those ratings.  

Hype train has already left the station, there.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, I am real concern that the totals are no where near correct for this storm event even for the clown maps. I believe the clown snow maps of 12-15 inches are way underdone for one reason- the 10:1 ratio will be more like 17:1 or better because of the dropping temps.. Factor those in and you will have a SECS easily maybe even BECS. Look at the dropping temps guys- you do not see that in most storms for our area. You also will see drifting of snow  bigtime at those ratios.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Albedoman said:

Yes, I am real concern that the totals are no where near correct for this storm event even for the clown maps. I believe the clown snow maps of 12-15 inches are way underdone for one reason- the 10:1 ratio will be more like 17:1 or better because of the dropping temps.. Factor those in and you will have a SECS easily maybe even BECS. Look at the dropping temps guys- you do not see that in most storms for our area. You also will see drifting of snow  bigtime at those ratios.

Just assume 30:1 and adjust upward as needed.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Albedoman said:

Yes, I am real concern that the totals are no where near correct for this storm event even for the clown maps. I believe the clown snow maps of 12-15 inches are way underdone for one reason- the 10:1 ratio will be more like 17:1 or better because of the dropping temps.. Factor those in and you will have a SECS easily maybe even BECS. Look at the dropping temps guys- you do not see that in most storms for our area. You also will see drifting of snow  bigtime at those ratios.

Ratios alone won't produce "big-time" snow drifts.  Will need "big-time" winds, as well.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Check.

gfs_mslp_wind_neus_30.png

Thanks, Eric.  On phone, at stop lights, while on my way home.  Hadn't seen the 18z products, yet.

We'll see if it all comes together to produce.  Too early, still, to know.  IF it does, and hoping it does so, I'm leaning towards chasing in this particular sub-forum region.    Reason I might be posting in here, time to time.  Last winter storm chase was in NYC and on LI, back in late March 2018.  Love to do it, again!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...