Malacka11 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 FWIW (which, like always, is beyond me lol), the GEFS mean snowfall is actually slightly farther north this run. 12z GEFS: 18z GEFS: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 29 minutes ago, mimillman said: I have a good feeling about this one, which is rare for me The lake component certainly adds confidence in getting a plowable snow. IF (big if) the heavy synoptic band and the lake assistance both come together, then it's going to be huge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Some pretty tasty 12z EPS members. Few clunkers. Really like this one for the sub at this point. Also looking ahead to the storm following this one. I think that one has potential for something really neat. But first things first. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Looks like another whiff to the south. Going to have some deep ground frost with no snow insolating things before the deep freeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This is going to be one of those storms that is so hyped because of social media like it already is, that when it doesn’t fully materialize like the rumors stated the forecasters get blamed for “looking at a computer and guessing” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I’m pretty hype for this one. This seems classic for a lot of the sub. Big lobe of the PV over Hudson Bay setting up a tight thermal gradient/strong jet, strong moisture laden Pac shortwave riding west to east along the gradient. Should be a good amount of QPF for someone with ratio boosts in there as well. Obviously questions on how north it gets...the PV will have something to say about that...but could see how this is an along/north of Ohio River storm or more of a southern Great Lakes storm depending on where that gradient sets up. Ensembles are locked and loaded with 6”+ (perhaps much more) potential wherever the snow sets up. The one thing that could prevent this would be the PV being too suppressive...I doubt that happens but is within the realm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The timing couldn't be better with these possible 2 or 3 systems coming through at the same time as the PV responds to the strat warming a couple of weeks ago. How much of these storms is a direct response to that is above my head but I don't think it always happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 19 minutes ago, OHweather said: I’m pretty hype for this one. This seems classic for a lot of the sub. Big lobe of the PV over Hudson Bay setting up a tight thermal gradient/strong jet, strong moisture laden Pac shortwave riding west to east along the gradient. Should be a good amount of QPF for someone with ratio boosts in there as well. Obviously questions on how north it gets...the PV will have something to say about that...but could see how this is an along/north of Ohio River storm or more of a southern Great Lakes storm depending on where that gradient sets up. Ensembles are locked and loaded with 6”+ (perhaps much more) potential wherever the snow sets up. The one thing that could prevent this would be the PV being too suppressive...I doubt that happens but is within the realm. The interesting thing I noticed with the PV is that the lobe of vorticity swinging around the vortex is speeding up a bit, with the southern stream piece slowing down there is even a chance that the first lobe may miss the southern stream system only to have a second lobe come down and phase with the system in a stronger manner too. Any slower ejection of the Southern stream and this could be an option opening up. Would certainly be a position of a stronger storm too, which some of the EPS members end up showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: The interesting thing I noticed with the PV is that the lobe of vorticity swinging around the vortex is speeding up a bit, with the southern stream piece slowing down there is even a chance that the first lobe may miss the southern stream system only to have a second lobe come down and phase with the system in a stronger manner too. Any slower ejection of the Southern stream and this could be an option opening up. Would certainly be a position of a stronger storm too, which some of the EPS members end up showing. Yeah, the GFS especially has slowed down the southern stream shortwave, the Euro has been a bit slower overall with it. It's interesting what that will do, because if the first lobe of the PV swings by in front of the storm it should shove the thermal gradient farther south, but if there is a phase with the second piece it may eventually cut a bit anyways if the first lobe of the PV gets out of the way fast enough. If this can phase with the PV it'd be quite a storm...I tend to lean against that, but it is a possibility if the slower southern piece trend continues, and if he second lobe of the PV dives aggressively enough. I suppose the other option is it phases with the second piece kind of late which would be more beneficial to the eastern lakes and Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Hype train has begun on social media. Euro snow maps all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoachLB said: Hype train has begun on social media. Euro snow maps all over the place. Links? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The notion of a big storm possible makes me feel warm and fuzzy but it’ll probably be Tuesday before I start getting excited about the model runs. I’m too old for disappointment 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I know it’s crapuweather but I’ve never seen this wording before a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Chambana said: I know it’s crapuweather but I’ve never seen this wording before a week out. There was a time that in their three-month outlook Accuweather forecasted like forty inches of snow for the Chicago area iirc but I've never seen this before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, Chambana said: I know it’s crapuweather but I’ve never seen this wording before a week out. Looks like they did that to the whole of the Great Lakes region, it's on for here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This is the main headline on weather.com https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2019-01-13-snow-ice-arctic-cold-rockies-central-east-late-week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Lakes or O.V.? That seems to be the question. 18z GFS has a foot of snow from St.Louis to Cincy. It sucks to be in the bullseye this far out. Not even going to worry about it for a couple more days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, chuckster2012 said: Lakes or O.V.? That seems to be the question. 18z GFS has a foot of snow from St.Louis to Cincy. It sucks to be in the bullseye this far out. Not even going to worry about it for a couple more days.. In my experience, the portion of the OV that is north of the Ohio River is usually just lumped into "Midwest" in those kind of regional discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Excited to follow this one with you boys and learn from your insights . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, King James said: Excited to follow this one with you boys and learn from your insights . ...could be dangerous 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 way too much talk...way too soon. heartbreak typically follows....you'll excuse me if i don't buy in as the cody parkey therapy tour is still too fresh. That said...winter is coming with a vengeance...me thinks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Baum said: way too much talk...way too soon. heartbreak typically follows....you'll excuse me if i don't buy in as the cody parkey therapy tour is still too fresh. That said...winter is coming with a vengeance...me thinks. Yep, Just seems like the rest of the month is offering up something special. Were all getting excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Baum said: way too much talk...way too soon. heartbreak typically follows....you'll excuse me if i don't buy in as the cody parkey therapy tour is still too fresh. That said...winter is coming with a vengeance...me thinks. This past weekend put a dent into my winter pessimism but thats about it. I'm still not going to be confident until 12Z Thursday. Still concerned with suppression even for my area. I'd much rather have a big cutter so at least some of the sub gets some even if my area white knuckles it. I don't like the strength of those ridges and the gateway for the frigid air opening up so close together. There's a scent of a SE special in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 From the Area Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio earlier... The next winter storm is taking shape for next weekend. Models are in fair agreement showing low pressure containing copious moisture and strong winds tracking across the Tennessee Valley. This track places the ILN area in a cold easterly flow that would produce heavy snow from strong lift and moisture transport existing in the circulation around the low. A tight pressure gradient raises the possibility for blowing and drifting snow, along with subzero wind chills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 LOT is a little bit more cautious: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 00z ICON way way south congratulations Arkansas Ozarks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: 00z ICON way way south congratulations Arkansas Ozarks It may be jumping the gun on opening the freezer door. Brings the HP crashing into the CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I won’t look for a concensus until Wednesday at least. Too much disappointment in the past this early out. Favorable that things are picking up. This will make for good maps though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 00z GFS more amped with 1st wave again. High pressure in Canada slightly less strong though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Don't shame me too hard for posting this, but found this little gem off Weather.com for my locale. Have yet to see anything over a half inch this season. If it completely covers the grass, I'll be a satisfied man! (Real low standards this year) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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