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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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1 minute ago, Frog Town said:

I'm getting the same vibes I got last night as the 0Z suite rolled in.  I"m sensing a pattern here.  Best cure for the is a strong Double IPA(NOT a Computer model for those of you wandering) and Bed.  See you Weenies in the morning.  

smartest guy in the room.

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cyclone closing in on his 3rd 6"+ storm of the winter. And another one possibly coming next week? Whatever he's doing, he's doing it right. Pretty amazing. :D

Low confidence call of 2-4" for MBY. Much more confident on the 2 than the 4. Hopefully don't have to downgrade...:(

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The reality always is folks want to trust the solutions they want and discount the solutions they don't. Always been that way. Will still be a decent winter event just won't be similar to that early February storm from several years back. And, I never expected that. Perspective.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Well if nothing else, I think we can more confidently weight things toward the wetter models in the fgen band.  There hasn't really been a significant backing off with that and they should handle it better.  Question is exactly where it sets up.

NAM centers it around the I-88 corridor while the hrrr/rap has it further north. Would hate to be LOT tonight, tough call. 

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Well if nothing else, I think we can more confidently weight things toward the wetter models in the fgen band.  There hasn't really been a significant backing off with that and they should handle it better.  Question is exactly where it sets up.

Definitely not as far north as id like.  I like the NAMs snow map. I won't be shocked to see it move south more even.

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Too much HRRR/RAP love. Those models are crap in their long range.

Goal posts for the big snows is between I-80 and the first two rows of southern WI. Seems these set ups like to inch north at game time, but not always. I’d feel pretty good if I was sitting in and around the E/W Tollway. 

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2 minutes ago, Baum said:

The reality always is folks want to trust the solutions they want and discount the solutions they don't.

and worse than that, they refer to individual op runs as as some kind of good/bad/whatever solely from the perspective of their desires. That's not science.
Some folks even use the totally uninformative qualifier "sick".
Oh well.

 

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LOT

 

As indicated above, just getting a quick look at the new 00Z NAM
guidance. Fairly similar to previous runs, and continues to
highlight areas along/north of the I-88 corridor across far
northern IL for the greatest snowfall potential with similar
timing going into Friday night. Perhaps a slight (half county)
shift southward with the main frontogentically-forced QPF axis
Friday evening, though basically little change to current
forecast. In collaboration with surrounding offices have made no
changes to going headlines at this time. Midnight shift will have
full suite of 00Z guidance available for possible upgrades.
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