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cyclone77

Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

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52 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Can already see some enhancement in WI by the end of the 18z HRRR.  Setup only improves after this.

HRRRFLT2_prec_ptype_036.png.fad292450b197294cce7e4c8a688db64.png

 

Darker shade stretches to both side of the lake tho. If you meant lake enhancement due to the easterly flow, it should be on the IL side only I'd think.

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1 minute ago, RogueWaves said:

Darker shade stretches to both side of the lake tho. If you meant lake enhancement due to the easterly flow, it should be on the IL side only I'd think.

I think he's looking at the NE-SW returns coming onshore in Wisconsin.

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1 minute ago, RogueWaves said:

Darker shade stretches to both side of the lake tho. If you meant lake enhancement due to the easterly flow, it should be on the IL side only I'd think.

The finger pointing southwestward into WI is what I'm referring to.

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

How fast the band moves through our area is critical.  Here's a NAM forecast sounding I pulled from the middle of the band (offshore of IL) valid early Sunday.  Excellent lift right through the dendritic growth zone.

2088602271_2019011718_NAM_063_42.3-87.43_severe_ml.thumb.png.185b933ef25378972c445445595e1ebe.png

The low level flow sort of breaks down/weakens with time on Sunday, so I think the band behavior/movement could become increasingly difficult to predict.  Still looks like it could bend back west later Sunday into Monday, likely starting to weaken by then.

The lake effect is certainly the deal maker for the higher totals.  Typically, you in Griffith will see a few more inches than I will.  

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Local news said on their weather report that they asked and the reason the IWX counties of Michigan had a watch and the other's haven't is because "The first tier of counties have a higher risk for more significant accumulations, as well as more blowing and drifting" 

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6 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Local news said on their weather report that they asked and the reason the IWX counties of Michigan had a watch and the other's haven't is because "The first tier of counties have a higher risk for more significant accumulations, as well as more blowing and drifting" 

Interesting.

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There’s a decent chance that central Iowa barely gets advisory criteria snow. These trends don’t look ideal.

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

As an official snow weenie for Toledo, I am posting this NAM 18z run to commemorate a great model run for Toledo and Cleveland

Fa4hd7M.jpg

Whoa is that legit

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25 minutes ago, TheRegionRat said:

Here's a NAM forecast sounding I pulled from the middle of the band (offshore of IL) valid early Sunday.

and area-wide from the 3k ...

image.png.c02f6826856bd4c22d7ec61637ccb1e1.png

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1 minute ago, nwohweather said:

Whoa is that legit

That's the million dollar question?  So many models and everyone's asking which one's legit.  If it verifies, then it's legit.  That's the best answer you're gonna get, T-town brother.  

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11 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

There’s a decent chance that central Iowa barely gets advisory criteria snow. These trends don’t look ideal.

based on what?

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13 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

There’s a decent chance that central Iowa barely gets advisory criteria snow. These trends don’t look ideal.

Wouldn't be the first time this snow season...

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Just now, Baum said:

based on what?

HRRR/RAP/RGEM trends have been extremely unfavorable. Or I could just be sleep deprived after a week of regular work and tracking this in my spare time, but I don’t feel good about this at all

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HRRR/RAP/RGEM trends have been extremely unfavorable. Or I could just be sleep deprived after a week of regular work and tracking this in my spare time, but I don’t feel good about this at all

The HRRR and RAP are not good, especially the HRRR.


.

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2 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

HRRR/RAP/RGEM trends have been extremely unfavorable. Or I could just be sleep deprived after a week of regular work and tracking this in my spare time, but I don’t feel good about this at all

ok. short term model trends. Your the pro so I'll trust your insight. Would be a dramatic change based on some of the maps i've seen.

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6 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

HRRR/RAP/RGEM trends have been extremely unfavorable. Or I could just be sleep deprived after a week of regular work and tracking this in my spare time, but I don’t feel good about this at all

I was noticing that. If 0z hrrr is right a lot of locations are going to underperform 

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:


The HRRR and RAP are not good, especially the HRRR.


.

You aren’t wrong, but even then most globals and other high res guidance has been putting a nice gradient down somewhere in west central Iowa. Even then I don’t feel great about widespread warning criteria snow. Something about this storm just doesn’t feel right to me.

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2 minutes ago, Baum said:

ok. short term model trends. Your the pro so I'll trust your insight. Would be a dramatic change based on some of the maps i've seen.

With last weekends system in the long range (so about now) the short-term models were also looking awful. Way underdone on amounts just about everywhere, but that eventually began to slowly improve with every run. Not saying it’ll happen again, but just an observation 

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1 minute ago, AppsRunner said:

You aren’t wrong, but even then most globals and other high res guidance has been putting a nice gradient down somewhere in west central Iowa. Even then I don’t feel great about widespread warning criteria snow. Something about this storm just doesn’t feel right to me.

Like bad feeling it will underperform or that models are underestimating its potential?

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2 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

You aren’t wrong, but even then most globals and other high res guidance has been putting a nice gradient down somewhere in west central Iowa. Even then I don’t feel great about widespread warning criteria snow. Something about this storm just doesn’t feel right to me.

I needed you to say that 48 hrs ago before you got me invested.

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30 minutes ago, mimillman said:

ORD SREF mean back above 7”

So 0.7" precip.  Not too shabby at >10:1.  Almost every member between 0.5-1" precip.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

So 0.7" precip.  Not too shabby at >10:1.  Almost every member between 0.5-1" precip.

There is a way to adjust the SREF snowfall ratios if you want to have a little fun..

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0z NAM is taking a step back.

 

The trough is more positive tilt as it ejects out into the Plains, with more energy hanging back. Additionally, it may try to close off at 500mb well south.

 

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0z NAM is taking a step back.
 
The trough is more positive tilt as it ejects out into the Plains, with more energy hanging back. Additionally, it may try to close off at 500mb well south.
 

It indeed will close off way south, 500mb closed off south of the OK/TX border.


.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


It indeed will close off way south, 500mb closed off south of the OK/TX border.


.

But apparently taking a sharp northeast turn though...

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