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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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Just now, Harry Perry said:

They issued a WWA for the possibility of a glazing of ice the other day... the forecast discussion read like this “Going to err on the side of caution and issue an advisory”. I’m thinking, but when we have a storm with 6”+ of snow on the table shouldn’t you “err on side of caution” and issue a watch?? Oh wait, they’re expecting 1-2” with locally higher amounts :lol:

 

Like the looks of the short range models this morning as well as the GFS and NAM. Looks more typical and inline with WAA snows which tend to overperform in situations like this. Will feel more solid about this storm after 00z tonight with full sampling of the energy off the pacific coast. Chicago could easily end up with some double digit snow due to lake enhancement. A rare occurrence on the side of the pond - interesting system to watch unfold.

 

 

What do you think GRR will do? Euro just went good tick north and now lays down 5" Kuchera ratio, but with 15:1 and up to 18:1 ratios, I think 5-6" looks likely! Thoughts?

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10 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

The screw hole on euro is laughable. I mean I can see a lull between the fgen band and the heavier band of deformation zone but one that large no. Just comical it has the lowest qpf bullseyed over me

Yea there's definitely a chance someone gets screwed. I noticed some of the NAMs were doing it where I'm at.

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13 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

The screw hole on euro is laughable. I mean I can see a lull between the fgen band and the heavier band of deformation zone but one that large no. Just comical it has the lowest qpf bullseyed over me

I'm 20 miles west of PIA in the EURO screwhole with you

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14 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

The screw hole on euro is laughable. I mean I can see a lull between the fgen band and the heavier band of deformation zone but one that large no. Just comical it has the lowest qpf bullseyed over me

It has been been there for two days in some of the models....I have have seen it happen many times so I wouldn't LOL too much

I foresee  a moderate band of mod-heavy snow with a sharp south cut off drifting north starting at I-80 then stalling north of  I-88..meanwhile precip will blossom south of us...and it will struggle to fill the gap this far north..and when it does it will be moving fast or almost over with

 

 

 

 

 

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Just now, janetjanet998 said:

It has been been there for two days in some of the models....I have have seen it happen many times so I wouldn't LOL too much

I foresee  a moderate band of mod-heavy snow with a sharp south cut off drifting north starting at I-80 then stalling north of  I-88..meanwhile precip will blossom south of us...and it will struggle to fill the gap this far north..and when it does it will be moving fast or almost over with

 

 

 

 

 

 

7 minutes ago, DLMKA said:

I'm 20 miles west of PIA in the EURO screwhole with you

I agree that there will likely be a screw hole somewhere with subsidence in between intense bands but one as large as Euro no way. I think FV3 had a more realistic portrayal of it

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Figuring out the exact placement of these screw zones is a bit challenging.  Assuming they are real.  Still some time to get a more filled in look I suppose but it's running out.

Hi. Models have been very consistent in the sucker hole. IKK just happens to be pretty much locked in it. That’s why I think a Watch for here is kinda silly. It’ll be an advisory at best for the LOT CWA portions, south of I-80. North of there, different story. :mapsnow:

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Hi. Models have been very consistent in the sucker hole. IKK just happens to be pretty much locked in it. That’s why I think a Watch for here is kinda silly. It’ll be an advisory at best for the LOT CWA south of I-80. North of there, different story. :mapsnow:
We preferred not to do a watch south but for collaboration purposes went along with it.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Never have understood why the ILX office is the last to issue any headlines. Even if things change you can downgrade your headline and make changes

you're right, they take a frustratingly long time to issue. last week we never got a watch, just a warning when it was upon us. no need for that.

I'll pop back into my cave now...

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