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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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13 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Yeah I have a little kestrel and am a little south and east of that but she hit officially 49. Probably pretty close to accurate as I had to take a step back

Thats awesome. Only was able to measure 32mph on my little device but that was in a subdivision, havent been ballsy enough to get out in the open with it. :lol:

The rippage continues here. IWX even put out an SWS for us awhile ago advertising heavy bands and an additional 1-3, which I would say will have easily fulfilled by the time this gets over with here in the next couple hours. Haven't measured again yet but will do so before I turn in. Temp is down to 18 here with wind chills in single digits so wish me luck!

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
859 PM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

.UPDATE...

The lake effect snow band is taking shape just off shore over Lake
Michigan. The latest radar observations and short term model
guidance indicate that the heaviest portion of this band should
remain just off shore, with only a few light snow showers
affecting extreme eastern portions of Milwaukee, Racine and
Kenosha Counties. Any additional snow accumulation should
generally be around an inch or less, and mostly confined to areas
between I-94 and Lake Michigan.

Given the limited additional snowfall and winter weather impacts,
have gone ahead and cancelled the Winter Storm Warning a few hours
early.

&&

Respectable showers making their way all the way down to Iroquois County.

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Trends are looking a little iffy for Lake county Illinois.  Might end up getting screwed there.  We'll see.  I could be wrong and there could be another crack at it tomorrow when it comes west.

They’re done until tomorrow night.

As per usual, the band progressed eastward faster than expected, and didn’t organize until later than expected.


.
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So after looking things over, I think there's a decent chance that Lake county Indiana gets upgraded to a winter storm warning.  Porter county is certainly a possibility as well.  Run after run of the short range models has been targeting Lake county IN in particular.  Activity will probably will shift out of Lake county for a while during the day but all in all, it should have enough combined residence time to get the job done.

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So after looking things over, I think there's a decent chance that Lake county Indiana gets upgraded to a winter storm warning.  Porter county is certainly a possibility as well.  Run after run of the short range models has been targeting Lake county IN in particular.  Activity will probably will shift out of Lake county for a while during the day but all in all, it should have enough combined residence time to get the job done.

Looks like you're gonna get buried.  Congrats! :mapsnow:

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So after looking things over, I think there's a decent chance that Lake county Indiana gets upgraded to a winter storm warning.  Porter county is certainly a possibility as well.  Run after run of the short range models has been targeting Lake county IN in particular.  Activity will probably will shift out of Lake county for a while during the day but all in all, it should have enough combined residence time to get the job done.

Agreed. Should be decent area coverage of 6”+.

 

Flakes flying here north of CP. Should start to get some more excitement by 5-6A. 

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7 minutes ago, KeenerWx said:

Worried that my bullish trigger on the LE will struggle to pan out. :lol:

80/94 north still looks good in Lake County, but that band is struggling to make penetration inland. Guess we'll see!

might be a meso low just offshore..notice some of the returns are heading back northeast off porter county

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NCLUDING THE CITY OF GARY  
905 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
   
..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW   
  ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH   
  AS 30 MPH, WITH PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW NEAR THE LAKE.  
  
* WHERE...NORTHERN LAKE IN COUNTY.  
  
* WHEN...TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...PLAN ON SNOW COVERED ROADS, SIGNIFICANTLY  
  REDUCED AND RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY WITH NEAR WHITEOUT   
  CONDITIONS AT TIMES, AND SLIPPERY ROADS. THIS INCLUDES ALONG   
  PARTS OF INTERSTATES 80, 90, AND 94.  
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REA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
930 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
   
UPDATE  
  
925 AM CST  
  
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ONGOING INTO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY,  
INDIANA, AND THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS A   
CONCERN FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS. WITH THE OBSERVATIONAL  
TRENDS, WE FELT A WINTER STORM WARNING MESSAGE WOULD BE BETTER   
AND HAVE UPGRADED FOR LAKE COUNTY.  
  
THE MEANDERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER THE OPEN WATER HAS BEEN  
MORE PIVOTED INTO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY SINCE A LITTLE BEFORE 6   
AM. NWS CHICAGO RADAR AND ESPECIALLY VALPARAISO UNIVERSITY RADAR   
SHOW MULTIPLE MESOSCALE VORTICES WITH ARCS OF 30+ DBZ WITHIN THIS  
BAND OF SHOWERS. ONE BROADER SUCH ONE IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO FAR   
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY BY 10 A.M. GARY AND VISUAL REPORTS HAVE   
INDICATED 1/4SM OR LOWER, INDICATIVE OF AT LEAST 1.5"/HR, AND   
CONSIDERING THE SNOW IS LIKELY DENDRITES GIVEN IDEAL THERMAL   
PROFILES WITHIN THE CLOUD DEPTH, RATES ARE LIKELY 2-3"/HR UNDER   
THE HEAVIEST. PHOTOS AND REPORTS INDICATE SNOW-COVERED ROADS AND   
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY, INCLUDING   
WEBCAM IMAGERY ALONG I-94 AT TIMES.  
  
THE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS PER SATELLITE, RADAR, AND OBS IS  
MEANDERING, AND OVER THE OPEN WATER NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED  
BROAD MESOVORTEX ON RADAR LOOKS LIKE IT IS SHIFTING EAST. BUT EVEN  
JUST A COUPLE/FEW MORE HOURS IN FAR NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY SHOULD  
RESULT IN AMOUNTS LOCALLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SIX INCHES   
WITH HIGH IMPACT TO TRAVEL. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD SWING   
THIS OR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THIS INTO PORTER COUNTY BY EARLY   
AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH ITS MAGNITUDE AS IT DOES SO.   
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SPREAD ON HOW THE   
CONVERGENCE WILL BEHAVE INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT LIKELY SOME   
SHIFTING WILL CONTINUE INCLUDING SWINGING BACK WESTWARD LATER IN  
THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE TIMING OF THE HEADLINES IN  
A COUPLE HOURS BUT BELIEVE THE MESSAGE IS REPRESENTATIVE FOR NOW,  
WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACTS TODAY.  
  
MTF  
  

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That mesolow is interesting.. it is preventing the band from moving east like it was modeled...

also bands off the MI shoreline uplake are now pushing back west some 

 

if it doesn't move east in a few hours then it never will if that meso low remains robust and the west push comes later

 

GARY /AIRPORT/ HVY SNOW  12   9  85 W5        30.29R VSB 1/8 WCI   4 

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