mimillman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 MKE extended the warning to midnight for their SE lakeshore counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Its a god awful mess out here. .25 in of ice if not more sagging tree limbs everywhere it's going to get scary this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I'm shocked ILN hasn't downgraded the Warning in many areas. From their AFD a short time ago... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... With the KILN sounding showing the warm layer up to 4C, along with surface temperatures above freezing working as far north as Columbus and Dayton areas, have brought band of freezing precipitation further north with this warm air push. The transition to stronger CAA doesn't develop until closer to 22-00z, when the precipitation will transition quickly to a quick band of mixed precipitation and then all snow with this push. As a result, snow totals coming in slightly lower. What this afternoon's snow totals may be lacking have a high potential to be made up with the set up of a deformation band in the enhanced lift expected late this evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6" report from Hillsdale County, MI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Jim Martin said: From their AFD a short time ago... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... With the KILN sounding showing the warm layer up to 4C, along with surface temperatures above freezing working as far north as Columbus and Dayton areas, have brought band of freezing precipitation further north with this warm air push. The transition to stronger CAA doesn't develop until closer to 22-00z, when the precipitation will transition quickly to a quick band of mixed precipitation and then all snow with this push. As a result, snow totals coming in slightly lower. What this afternoon's snow totals may be lacking have a high potential to be made up with the set up of a deformation band in the enhanced lift expected late this evening. Exactly this. The defo band will likely makeup for everything ILN missed out on this morning/afternoon. Would hate to be in the areas that got really iced, only to get followed up with heavy snow AND wind as the cold air wraps around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I am enjoying this storm. Its exceeding my expectations. With the cold temperatures and the blowing and drifting powder, it's a Winter wonderland. Hard to measure. Have 4.5" as of about 20 minutes ago. Looks to continue for a while. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 17 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Its a god awful mess out here. .25 in of ice if not more sagging tree limbs everywhere it's going to get scary this evening. More precip heading your way from the sw. My point forecast calls for 1-2 inches of snow for me the remainder of the day, yet I am have freezing rain starting to accrete on wires and tree branches. No mention of ice in current point forecast from NWS. WTHR reporting that Boone, Hamilton, Madison, and Delaware counties are getting significant ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Indystorm said: More precip heading your way from the sw. My point forecast calls for 1-2 inches of snow for me the remainder of the day, yet I am have freezing rain starting to accrete on wires and tree branches. No mention of ice in current point forecast from NWS. It just started snowing lol. This is a hell of a lot more ice than I expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Wind gusts up to 32mph at Findlay OH, with 1/4 mile visibility. Near blizzard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Chinook said: Wind gusts up to 32mph at Findlay OH, with 1/4 mile visibility. Near blizzard. It is really bad right now here downtown Chinook. Looks like plenty more to come too. Significant blowing and drifting already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 We'll be issuing something for the lake effect this afternoon, leaning advisory at this time. HRRR soundings in the band tonight look very good for IL shore. As has been mentioned already, trend has been to be a bit more progressive along the IL shore and slow it down into NW IN on Sunday. As of now, and obviously subject to change my biggest concern for 6"+ totals is NW IN. NAM and FV3 max out low level convergence and omega near the Lake/Porter border tomorrow morning and appear to favor longer residence time there before the band swings back west tomorrow night. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 ORD is at 5" so far, pending LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 17 minutes ago, Indystorm said: More precip heading your way from the sw. My point forecast calls for 1-2 inches of snow for me the remainder of the day, yet I am have freezing rain starting to accrete on wires and tree branches. No mention of ice in current point forecast from NWS. WTHR reporting that Boone, Hamilton, Madison, and Delaware counties are getting significant ice. I can confirm. Got way more ice than expected in Hamilton County and the trees are feeling it. Heard some good cracking about an hour ago. We have finally transitioned to sleet/tad bit of snow but the power has already flickered a few times. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 As always, when there is wind I struggle to get a good measurement. I'm going with 4.5". It appears the wind destroyed the ratio(the blowing snow really compacts). Despite the wind, my gauge still caught 0.53", which suggests even more than that fell. However, even the 3.1" on my snow board melted down to 0.48", a terrible 6.5 to 1 ratio. I know we got more than 3.1". The reports from in and around Cedar Rapids range from about 4.5 to 6", so I'm going with the low end of that. I always end up with the low end of the range where there is wind. Much of the Des Moines warning area crapped out, only receiving 0-2". The MN/IA border area was the winner. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Finally starting to get some sleet/snow here at Fortville just ne of Indpls as the column cools. Like Jackstraw I am concerned when the higher wind gusts currently at the IL/IN border area start making their way eastward this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Stormy Lake Erie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Officially in Champaign 0.35” precip and 0.8” of snowfall. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Downtown Findlay this hour. Heavy snow falling, along with considerable blowing and drifting. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndTenn Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Still not a flake yet here in northwest Indy, all freezing rain. Maybe 1/4'' on the trees and the pavement is just starting to glaze over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just got in from shoveling. Very drifty out there. Some areas don't even have enough to cover the ground and others have drifts like a foot high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 57 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: We'll be issuing something for the lake effect this afternoon, leaning advisory at this time. HRRR soundings in the band tonight look very good for IL shore. As has been mentioned already, trend has been to be a bit more progressive along the IL shore and slow it down into NW IN on Sunday. As of now, and obviously subject to change my biggest concern for 6"+ totals is NW IN. NAM and FV3 max out low level convergence and omega near the Lake/Porter border tomorrow morning and appear to favor longer residence time there before the band swings back west tomorrow night. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Do you think the band could still be pretty healthy tomorrow evening into early Monday? Seems to me like conditions are still pretty good at that time. And another thing I've learned over the years is that once the band gets organized, it sometimes takes longer than the models think for it to break down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Getting blasted here in Columbus Grove, OH. 30dbz snow bands training over my head. Haven't bothered measuring as I cannot find a decent enough sheltered area to attempt, but I did get some wind gusts. Clocked a high of 32mph from my bedroom window, with the entire period (3-5min) sustained around 18-20mph. Drifiting starting to get pretty significant in places. Absolute joy of a storm to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 narrow bands of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: Do you think the band could still be pretty healthy tomorrow evening into early Monday? Seems to me like conditions are still pretty good at that time. And another thing I've learned over the years is that once the band gets organized, it sometimes takes longer than the models think for it to break down. Looping through the mesoscale model interpretations is interesting. Merely entertainment, but the 18Z HRRR had a pretty wild interpretation. This will be a fun one to watch unfold. Not necessarily for big dump potential, but the evolution. Field seems to have widened with regards to who is at play, but I still feel the general consensus around spread & totals seems to be on track. Someone in Lake (poss. Porter, too) will pull 6-8". ...now watch me regret saying that and Michigan City activates its magnet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, IndTenn said: Still not a flake yet here in northwest Indy, all freezing rain. Maybe 1/4'' on the trees and the pavement is just starting to glaze over. IND should have stuck with their original 1-2" call down here. 12 hours of rain and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, KeenerWx said: Looping through the mesoscale model interpretations is interesting. Merely entertainment, but the 18Z HRRR had a pretty wild interpretation. This will be a fun one to watch unfold. Not necessarily for big dump potential, but the evolution. Field seems to have widened with regards to who is at play, but I still feel the general consensus around spread & totals seems to be on track. Someone in Lake (poss. Porter, too) will pull 6-8". ...now watch me regret saying that and Michigan City activates its magnet. LOT goes 2-5" for Cook, 3-6" and locally higher for Lake/Porter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: LOT goes 2-5" for Cook, 3-6" and locally higher for Lake/Porter. Interesting evolution on the 3km NAM as well with the very clear move back west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: The global models will have a rule: We will never talk again about the storm on the 17-19th of January of 2019...........forget..........forget. Hindsight of course is 20/20, but a few of the 12z/18z runs (12z GFS, 12z CMC, 18z 12kNAM are the ones that appear in my head from memory) from Thursday had the setup nailed down the fairly well in IN/OH/parts of SEMI. Of course then things went down the drain at 00z that night setting up 24 hours or so of flat out mayhem. It will be interesting when this is all said and done to look back more deeply and determine what the system itself did, how it affected models in the close ranges, and if there is anything models could do to get a better grip on occurrences like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 54 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Downtown Findlay this hour. Heavy snow falling, along with considerable blowing and drifting. Go to that show! We Banjo 3 are awesome! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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