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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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34 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Still no word from LOT on the lake effect this evening/tomorrow

iI would  guess an advisory to start with 3-5...band might be pretty instense but it is pretty transient....rates will likely peak in NW IND then move back west  in a weaker form

 

of course any mesolows could cause surprises

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On 1/17/2019 at 7:35 PM, AppsRunner said:

There’s a decent chance that central Iowa barely gets advisory criteria snow. These trends don’t look ideal.

This ended up being pretty accurate. Somewhere between 1.5-2.5" in Ames, A little bit more in DSM. Less anywhere west of I-35. Brutal storm.

Glad to see some others that had been struggling for years cash in (Cyclone77) and others getting a big storm + lake-effect. 

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Just now, mimillman said:

This band right over the city is cranking! Starting to cover the roads again

maybe deeper lake enhancement then before seeded by the tail end of the system snow.?...may moderate/weaken as the system seeds move out until later  this evening 

 

one thing is for sure these usually have surprises ..don't recall the date but years ago a meso low formed keeping the band over Lake county IL ...12+ inches in places 

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MKE update on LES

 

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
957 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019  
   
UPDATE  
STEADY SNOW CAUSED BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING  
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY HAS ABOUT LOST ITS GRIP OF SOUTHEAST  
WISCONSIN. MAINLY LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS NOW  
AFFECTING EASTERN AREAS, WITH MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF  
MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL   
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING IN   
EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 1   
TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM   
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND   
KENOSHA COUNTIES. MAY EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHEBOYGAN  
AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL DUE TO THREAT   
FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN EASTERN   
AREAS. WILL LIKELY LET INLAND COUNTIES EXPIRE AT 18Z.   
  
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NNE BY  
LATE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN THE SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED ON  
EASTERN PARTS OF THE THREE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.    

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ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1009 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHWEST  
MICHIGAN  
  
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW   
  
VALID 191609Z - 191915Z  
  
SUMMARY...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE  
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.  
  
DISCUSSION...A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF A  
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY.  
NORTH OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE, CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MARION,  
INDIANA TO NEAR DELAWARE, OHIO, MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS DEVELOPED. A  
BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES HAS DEVELOPED FROM ROCHESTER,  
INDIANA TO NEAR ANN ARBOR, MI. THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND MATCHES 12Z  
NAM CROSS SECTIONS WHICH HAD AN AREA OF NEGATIVE SATURATED  
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY (EPV) ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL  
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. THIS AREA OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC  
INSTABILITY(CSI) IS EXPECTED TO WANE BY 18Z AND THEN REDEVELOP  
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. SNOWFALL RATES BENEATH  
THESE HEAVIER BANDS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH SNOWFALL  
RATES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF THESE STRONGER  
BANDS, SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR.  
  

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5 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Going to be one sharp cut off when this thing tilts. Current numbers verbatim go with 4” for Toledo, 6” for Toledo Express and 8” for Findlay. Does appear as there is some convective feedback issues on the GFS as it wants to dump a foot from Columbus over to Youngstown with sharp gradients up to the northwest corner of the state. 

Just really curious where the deformation sets up as so many times we have seen it go west and north of where it was forecasted. 30-40 mile miss could be a huge difference

As I said earlier this morning...

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2 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Im thinking someone in SE MI and maybe even Metro Detroit gets 6-8" out of this storm. The updated AFD mentions that they've bumped snow totals up a bit and that the system is slightly further north and west of guidance. 

Can confirm here in Royal Oak, MI. Current rates and radar trends have me thinking this will be a bit of an over performer.

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REA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
1051 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019  
   
UPDATE  
  
1045 AM CST  
  
THE WINTER STORM IS GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MUCH OF  
THE WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKING TO END ON TIME. STILL, BANDS OF  
HEAVIER SNOW OCCASIONALLY ARE SEEN IN THE DEFORMATION AREA OF THE  
DEPARTING SYSTEM. ONE SUCH BAND IS JUST SOUTH OF I-55 OVER THE   
CHICAGO METRO INTO GRUNDY COUNTY AS OF 1045 AM. ANOTHER COUPLE   
SUCH BANDS MAY BE SEEN SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE BEFORE ENDING BY  
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON, GIVEN FRONTOGENESIS AND DECENT INSTABILITY   
ABOVE 600 MB (AS OBSERVED ON 12Z DVN AND ILX RAOBS). DISORGANIZED,  
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME IN   
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION FROM   
JUST THAT.   
  
IN TERMS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER THE FALLING SNOW, REPORTS FROM LAW  
ENFORCEMENT AND WEBCAM IMAGES THUS FAR HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH FOR   
REDUCED VISIBILITY OR MAJOR ROAD IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE TO CHECK  
WITH LOCATIONS AS THE SNOW ENDS. IF THE MESSAGE IS STILL JUST   
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAINLY IN OPEN LOCATIONS, WILL JUST CONTINUE   
THAT IN THE FORECAST WITH NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINE NEEDED.  
  
CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, AND THE  
LIKELIHOOD OF A MODERATE TO STRONG SINGLE BAND LATE EVENING INTO  
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS, AND THE BEHAVIOR/PIVOTING OF THIS  
LIKELY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA SUNDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER  
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH THIS  
AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE PLUS INCHES, ESPECIALLY LAKE AND  
COOK COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS, AND LAKE COUNTY IN INDIANA  
MAINLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.  
  

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10 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
1051 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019  
   
UPDATE  
  
1045 AM CST  
  
THE WINTER STORM IS GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MUCH OF  
THE WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKING TO END ON TIME. STILL, BANDS OF  
HEAVIER SNOW OCCASIONALLY ARE SEEN IN THE DEFORMATION AREA OF THE  
DEPARTING SYSTEM. ONE SUCH BAND IS JUST SOUTH OF I-55 OVER THE   
CHICAGO METRO INTO GRUNDY COUNTY AS OF 1045 AM. ANOTHER COUPLE   
SUCH BANDS MAY BE SEEN SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE BEFORE ENDING BY  
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON, GIVEN FRONTOGENESIS AND DECENT INSTABILITY   
ABOVE 600 MB (AS OBSERVED ON 12Z DVN AND ILX RAOBS). DISORGANIZED,  
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME IN   
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION FROM   
JUST THAT.   
  
IN TERMS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER THE FALLING SNOW, REPORTS FROM LAW  
ENFORCEMENT AND WEBCAM IMAGES THUS FAR HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH FOR   
REDUCED VISIBILITY OR MAJOR ROAD IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE TO CHECK  
WITH LOCATIONS AS THE SNOW ENDS. IF THE MESSAGE IS STILL JUST   
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAINLY IN OPEN LOCATIONS, WILL JUST CONTINUE   
THAT IN THE FORECAST WITH NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINE NEEDED.  
  
CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, AND THE  
LIKELIHOOD OF A MODERATE TO STRONG SINGLE BAND LATE EVENING INTO  
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS, AND THE BEHAVIOR/PIVOTING OF THIS  
LIKELY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA SUNDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER  
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH THIS  
AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE PLUS INCHES, ESPECIALLY LAKE AND  
COOK COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS, AND LAKE COUNTY IN INDIANA  
MAINLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.  
  

Yes, prudent.

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Guidance now putting more emphasis on a highly transient lake band. Significant mesolow influence toward the second half of its lifecycle, too. Seems to now max out over Porter, but with so many cards on the table I’d be hesitant to place a bet on “ground zero”. General spread the wealth looks likely, with some interesting lollipop potential in NWI. 

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