Baum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, RyanDe680 said: And the other night you were the jackpot. What a system. no different than most. 48 hrs in a winter storm is an eternity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said: The HRRR has decent snowfall amounts for lower Michigan. I'm surprised NWS Grand Rapids and Detroit are sticking with advisories. Their stubbornness is impressive at this point. Maybe they're thinking it will under perform? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, metallica470 said: I live not that far from you. If this ends up being the case hopefully the lake effect tomorrow night makes up for it! You may find me in the complaint thread if it doesn't. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1000 mb surface low at present in sw OK with pressure falls ne to Cape Girardeau MO per SPC mesoscale. Is this thing coming farther north than expected? I originally saw a PAH to EVV track. And SPC still has a slight risk of svr down south for tomorrow....more than today's marginal risk. Am concerned like Jack on how this might affect the system moisture wise particularly with deformation snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metallica470 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: You may find me in the complaint thread if it doesn't. Lol after a week of tracking this and it looking pretty good for the most part all week to just end end up with barely advisor level snow, believe me I'll be right there with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Going to be sick to death of watching the HRRR/RAP nonstop for another 2 days or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 That is certainly an impressive single LES band. Hope it comes to fruition for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Indystorm said: 1000 mb surface low at present in sw OK with pressure falls ne to Cape Girardeau MO per SPC mesoscale. Is this thing coming farther north than expected? I originally saw a PAH to EVV track. And SPC still has a slight risk of svr down south for tomorrow....more than today's marginal risk. Am concerned like Jack on how this might affect the system moisture wise particularly with deformation snows. That isobar orientation looks in line with short-range guidance. You would think that's where she's headed, but most models show it taking a number of jogs eastward as it tries to gain latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metallica470 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Does anyone know what the ratios have been so far in Iowa and Wisconsin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, metallica470 said: Lol after a week of tracking this and it looking pretty good for the most part all week to just end end up with barely advisor level snow, believe me I'll be right there with you. Not sure how it'll play out, but this has looked like a high end advisory/low end warning type snow since about 12Z Tuesday. And at zero hr it still may surpass that, or not. Welcome to following winter storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Curious if anything is happening under those returns in SE Wisconsin. Nada downtown rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Curious if anything is happening under those returns in SE Wisconsin. Nada downtown rnDrove through a bit ago. Run of the mill little event. Treated roads not too bad. Rural roads dropped speed down to 45-50 on snow covered pavement.Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Uhhh.....anyone watching this 12Z NAM coming in? It's kind of a game changer form I-80 North from Chi-town to Detroit. Edit: Lack of sleep. Sorry, the 00Z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Uhhh.....anyone watching this 12Z NAM coming in? It's kind of a game changer form I-80 North from Chi-town to Detroit. What? The 00z is running, and it’s not anything close to a game changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: What? The 00z is running, and it’s nog anything close to a game changer. My Bad. More of SE MI, NW OH improvement. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 RAP/HRRR/NAM all in lock step for 6-10" along and north of I-88 in N. Illinois, with the highest toals in a narrow gradient from the Quad Cities to just north of ORD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 30 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Going to be sick to death of watching the HRRR/RAP nonstop for another 2 days or so. Wag the dog 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: RAP/HRRR/NAM all in lock step for 6-10" along and north of I-88 in N. Illinois, with the highest toals in a narrow gradient from the Quad Cities to just north of ORD. Thanks for the updates and model analysis. I appreciate it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 I can tell this one's gonna be hard to measure. Snow is blowing around quite a bit out there already. Flake size is a step above pixie dust, but it's efficiently accumulating. Looks like around a half inch or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I’ve got more or less 2” on the ground here and it’s coming down hard at the moment. Probably 1”/hr at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 flakes starting to float back down here... covering. coming down fine,but quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Snow been flying here for about 20 some mins now with already a good dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 really hitting eastern lake county hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Lake enhancement already coming onshore in SE. Wisconsin and NE. Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Cincinnati now in the Winter Storm Warning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 814 PM CST Fri Jan 18 2019 .UPDATE... 814 PM CST For Evening Update... No significant changes to character of going forecast this evening. Did make some slight mods to depict a somewhat slower start to snow in some areas, especially south/southeast parts of the forecast area. Overall however, no changes to general snow amounts or headline configuration were made, though actual snow amounts may shade toward the lower end of forecast ranges for most of the area. Initial band of moderate snow developed from southeast MN/northern IA into far northern IL this afternoon, slightly north of what guidance had depicted 24 hours ago. This has limited accumulating snow mainly to the northern tier of IL counties along the WI border through early evening, while keeping things relatively precipitation free across much of the cwa. Regional radar mosaic does depict snow beginning to increase in coverage from eastern IA into northwest IL as of 8 pm however, and high-res guidance indicates this trend will continue across much of northern IL along/north of the I-80 corridor over the next couple of hours as low and mid-level frontogenetic forcing develops and strengthens. Have adjusted hourly pop/wx grids accordingly and lowered QPF a bit in spots where snow hasn`t occurred yet, though with little overall change to expected snow amounts as the height of the storm is still to come overnight and Saturday morning. By the time snow tapers off Saturday morning and early afternoon, amounts still look to range from 5-8" along and north of the I-88 corridor across northern IL, to 3-7" south and southeast of I-88. Surface pressure falls of 1-2 mb per 3 hours across the Mississippi are indicative of a tightening of the surface pressure gradient, with northeast winds beginning to gust into the 20-25 mph range at times in some spots. Winds will continue to ramp up late tonight and Saturday, leading to blowing and drifting as snow accumulates. With storm just getting underway, no other sig changes made outside of aforementioned tweaks. Ratzer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 SN here in southeast Naperville, already covered my driveway. Thinking somewhere in 4-6" range here, hopefully sneak in over 6". A bit uncomfortably close to where the gradient is setting up, but I think we'll be okay in this area.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 9:55 PM, ILSNOW said: really hitting eastern lake county hard Talk about heartbreak in Indy though... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 10:00 PM, Jim Martin said: Cincinnati now in the Winter Storm Warning. Huge change for the good there, they were expecting rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 A late first call of 12" at ORD...but think I might bust low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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