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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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7 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

21z RAP looks good for N IL, the HRRR is showing an upward trend as well in recent runs. 

4C19607A-7E50-48CE-B20C-4F903BDADCED.png

Geez, if that's correct my forecast would definitely bust lol.  Think the kuchera ratios are too high though based on the forecast soundings.  Would still be 7-8" for the QCA.

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LOT Aviation

 

have made some slight timing adjustments to the going forecast,
but in general, there is little change to the general scenario.
Latest radar imagery indicates some weak echo overspreading nwrn
IL, but this is elevated and any falling snow is evaporating
before hitting the ground since low levels are initially
relatively dry. Expect that snowfall rates should ramp up quickly
by arnd 01-02z. The period of heaviest snow should be durg the
late evening hours and continue overnight. Have gone with a
prevailing 1/2sm as snowfall rates and wind speeds increase. There
will likely be periods with rates of 1 inch per hour and short
periods with rates of 2-3 inches per hour with vis of 1/4sm or
less should any heavier small scale banding develop and mover over
the terminals. Given low confidence in timing, location and
residence time of any narrow banding, have not included in the
TAFs at this time, but these lower conditions remain a
possibility. As the more significant snowfall begins, also expect
that cigs should lower rapidly to ifr or lifr levels. Liquid to
snow ratios should start out near climatologically normal levels
and snow type with not be particularly wet or dry, but as colder
air moves into the region by early tomorrow morning, liquid to
snow ratios will increase and the potential for blowing and
drifting snow will become a concern. So, while snowfall rates are
expected to diminish by arnd daybreak, visibility should remain in
ifr levels due to blowing snow more so than falling snow.
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Just now, cyclone77 said:

Des Moines ASOS down to 1/8 mile.  Very impressive.  Seeing several reports of a foot or more from southwest MN and southeast SD.  Madison SD with 14".  Looks like 6-8" so far along the MN/IA border with snow still ongoing.
 

that's quite the change from earlier reports

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Des Moines ASOS down to 1/8 mile.  Very impressive.  Seeing several reports of a foot or more from southwest MN and southeast SD.  Madison SD with 14".  Looks like 6-8" so far along the MN/IA border with snow still ongoing.
 

ASOS auto detects a vis of 1/4 then the next value is M1/4 so the 1/8 is a man supplied entry there. Also a better chance of being more accurate as well. In other words it is going to pound town.

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1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

3” increase in totals says the HRRR over the last 3-4 runs. But like you said, southern Cook could only see 3” while northern Cook sees 7-8” (not including LE, just talking about the next 20 hours)

46D16EDD-B65E-4F81-992D-B2F460943A80.png

Since we really don't know how the lake bands will set up, there is a chance that S. Cook could do ok. I never trust where a model says lake effect will set up. I'm in the N. side of Chicago, so I'm feeling pretty good about this setup right now. Fingers crossed.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

3” increase in totals says the HRRR over the last 3-4 runs. But like you said, southern Cook could only see 3” while northern Cook sees 7-8” (not including LE, just talking about the next 20 hours)

46D16EDD-B65E-4F81-992D-B2F460943A80.png

Consistent with the forecast. And a 3" -8" difference in a county the size of Cook is not extreme. Model also seems to be playing catch up.

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10 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

3” increase in totals says the HRRR over the last 3-4 runs. But like you said, southern Cook could only see 3” while northern Cook sees 7-8” (not including LE, just talking about the next 20 hours)

46D16EDD-B65E-4F81-992D-B2F460943A80.png

The 22z RAP is not quite as punishing, but has a similar look.

Someone over Northern Cook/Lake county will do very well with this system + lake effect

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