Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Why are there 3 counties south of Lima that are in between 2 areas of Warnings ? Makes no sense. Don't offices need to coordinate with each other ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Baum said: So maybe this will turn about better than originally thought There’s going to be a razor sharp gradient on the NW side. I think I’m personally out of luck but especially the southeast side of DSM looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'm near the Akron area, any thoughts on the timing and impact for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Its been snowing on the SW side of Madison for about 45 mins now. Small flakes but accumulating on both grass and untreated roads. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, madwx said: Its been snowing on the SW side of Madison for about 45 mins now. Small flakes but accumulating on both grass and untreated roads. Yup. SW side here also (south of the Beltline between Whitney and Gammon). Nice dusting on my car. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Why are there 3 counties south of Lima that are in between 2 areas of Warnings ? Makes no sense. Don't offices need to coordinate with each other ? ILN just now included Auglaize Hardin and Mercer in the Winter Storm Warning. 5-8" expected along with 35 MPH gusts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Can confirm flakes are flying in downtown Chicago. Tiny dendrites though. No problem with dry air this time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 If I squint hard I see a flake or two out in Oak Brook, IL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Couple flakes making it down here. Sun trying to poke through the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Yup. SW side here also (south of the Beltline between Whitney and Gammon). Nice dusting on my car. Just started to snow here too. So far it's mostly on roofs and grass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I honestly don't know what to expect here. 2-14? lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: I honestly don't know what to expect here. 2-14? lol Agreed, I am down the east of you on S.R. 28..... certainly appears the east part of the state could be in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looking at water vapor imagery appears the trough is fairly neutral right now. Maybe could end up more north? We shall see 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knifeparty Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Snowing here in Humboldt Park area of Chicago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Precip starting to break out in northwest MO. South-central IA should be rocking nicely in the next few hours. We have graupel spittin’ right now with the radar filling in around us! Let’s get it started! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Awaiting the snowfall for tomorrow here in #NWOhioWx. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3km NAM suggests a significant lake effect event for Cook and Lake, IN counties, with totals likely exceeding anything from the synoptic snows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Lake plume off of Lake Michigan is a thing of beauty on the VV progs. With all the favorable factors (including potential mesolow(s)) other than the mediocre inversion heights, we might max out the snow rates for what is possible in a Lake Michigan plume with only 5000-6000 ft inversion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 good to see some positivity creep back into the board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Lake plume off of Lake Michigan is a thing of beauty on the VV progs. With all the favorable factors (including potential mesolow(s)) other than the mediocre inversion heights, we might max out the snow rates for what is possible in a Lake Michigan plume with only 5000-6000 ft inversion. Those lake effect mesos are a thing of beauty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, mimillman said: 3km NAM suggests a significant lake effect event for Cook and Lake, IN counties, with totals likely exceeding anything from the synoptic snows I would be a bit weary of it, given it differs and is more significant than any other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 19 minutes ago, afterimage said: Agreed, I am down the east of you on S.R. 28..... certainly appears the east part of the state could be in a good spot. Hey! Glad to see that you're still around. You look to be in line for a little more than us up here in Huntington. Let me know how it ends for you. I know Jack will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Here we go! Parking lot at my apt building has a solid dusting now, just started my GoPro timelapse off my balcony. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Hey! Glad to see that you're still around. You look to be in line for a little more than us up here in Huntington. Let me know how it ends for you. I know Jack will I know how to use my measuring board properly now! Probably won't do much good with the wind, I'll just slant stick into the easterlies lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I’m going with around 8” for the Toledo metro area, 6-9” expected. The combination of fgen and the powdery nature of the snow is going to lead to higher totals than the 4-7” they’re calling for. We almost always see this in the Great Lakes, strong pressure gradient puts down better than expected numbers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Hey! Glad to see that you're still around. You look to be in line for a little more than us up here in Huntington. Let me know how it ends for you. I know Jack will Hey, thanks. Yep, haven't posted in a while, but am here. I am hopeful for tomorrow. As much as we have lost power here at our house in the past 6 months, 4-5 times, I am leery, so have been out getting the generator going lol. I will post total(s) but as Jack said wind will be an issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 RGEM came in a bump south. Also had to initialize the low a bit southwest of it's forecast point for 18z. Wouldn't be surprised to see the good 12z runs flip to less favorable 18z and 00z runs again. Can't buy any consistency with this storm. Wish everyone on here good luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Quote Snow will be rapidly developing this afternoon in eastern Iowa, and by the start of tonight, 6 PM, it should be moving into counties near the Mississippi River. By mid evening, it should be falling over the entire area, and possibly beginning to wane in the northwest. Tonight should see a period of at least 6 hours of moderate to heavy snow, followed by another 2 to 5 hours of light snow. Within this snow event, mesoscale bands are expected, and will lean on the mesocale models do place these, combined with looking at regional radar for the exact placement. We expect a widespread 6-8 inch snow over the northwest 2/3rds of the CWA, and 4-6 in the southeast. Within that, there is a potential for narrow swaths with heavy snow possibly yielding 2+ per hour rates for a time late this evening, resulting in amounts over 10. Since the impact is similar for anyone getting over 5 inches with this storm, and I`m very hesitant to directly forecast the max amounts in the forecast since that could easily be off by 10 to 20 miles with this event. Multiple days of freezing drizzle has resulted in "Teflon Snow" outside. Ok, that`s not an official term, but that thin smooth crust should really allow the fluffy snow to drift ideally. Thus, by mid evening, all areas should be seeing winter storm conditions in snow and drifting snow/blowing snow. That will continue to get worse overnight as the system moves to our east, and strong cold advection increases. I could see this close to blizzard criteria in some open areas between Midnight and 8 AM Saturday, but winds are forecast to fall short of the 35 mph criteria. Once again, you won`t need the max snow to fall in your county to experience what should be a classic winter storm condition overnight. Saturday, winds will very slowly decrease, maintaining significant drifting snow, despite accumulating snow moving out before 10 AM. Temperatures will fall through the day, from the mid to upper 20s southeast to holding in the teens northwest. Wind chills will remain -10 to zero northwest to zero to +10 southeast through the day. Someone at DVN is pretty hyped. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Lol love it. Horizontal Avalanche... Multiple days of freezing drizzle has resulted in "Teflon Snow" outside. Ok, that`s not an official term, but that thin smooth crust should really allow the fluffy snow to drift ideally. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, hlcater said: Someone at DVN is pretty hyped. Their point about the "teflon" snow is a good one. That will definitely aid in the blowing snow out in the open country. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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