Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 35 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: UKMET moved north as well, which is notable considering its past. Would not be surprised to see the 12z Euro come back north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z UK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Starting to think a Lake Effect Snow Watch (or at least advisory) should be issued for Lake and Cook counties. Many people I’ve spoken to are completely unaware of any precipitation on Saturday night after the synoptic snows and will be caught completely off guard.Unfortunately, with the wind field slackening, almost impossible to tell where the low level wind convergence will ultimately set up. The NAM favors long duration IL side, GFS drifts fairly quickly into NW IN, FV3 and GEM kind of split the difference a bit. With that said, from a low level convergence and omega perspective, it looks good to overcome the less than ideal inversion heights. I think 6"+ amounts are a distinct possibility if evolution of convergence allows for a stall scenario.I'm working today but not sure yet how it will be handled by forecast desk, could see us holding off and midnight shift issuing a watch or advisory, or we go with a low confidence watch. From what I've looked at, I'd consider Cook, Lake IN and Porter for a watch and would feel best but still low confidence about Cook and Lake IN. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 MKX just put me under a WWA for this storm. I am so close to the gradient for this. I could get 2" or I could 6". Talk about a nailbiter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Well you all enjoy your winter storm, if it can even be called that outside the fgen band. Lol. Every single model has me in a doughnut hole of lower totals. I'm either in for a big surprise or very little snow. Hoping this thing trends stronger and more north but I have very little confidence in that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Interesting tidbit from the NWS in Northern Indiana AFD a short time ago: While forecasted amounts may not strictly adhere to warning criteria, may upgrade a large portion of the area to warnings this afternoon given expected impacts from snow accumulations/wind/blowing and drifting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 And just like that Prairie Du Chien down to 1.5 mile visibility with SN- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks like the 12z Euro came further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 41 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z UK A IMBY observation but a lot of these models have that higher precipitation sliding down the IL/IN border south of the lake. Looks to be just missing the screw hole and getting in on some LES (?) later on. Going to expect 2-3 inches and will be happy with anything more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 44 minutes ago, KeenerWx said: Going to be a nail-biter with LE, as always. Some of the latest mesoscale indications seem to point towards a band that is organized, yet a bit transient in nature. Of course how it reflects will always be up to any hyper localized influencers. For NW Indiana as a whole, I'm thinking 2-4" from the storm with another 2-4" north of 30 for the LE. Lollipop potential north of 80, especially in Lake County. (I.e., I generally agree with your range) Hey there. Yeah it's tricky, especially with the low level flow weakening with time. The idea of it trying to come back west late Sunday into Monday still looks possible, but question is how far east it gets before then. If I had a gun to my head (and really trying to not be biased here) I'd say Lake county IN could have the longest total residence time. Low confidence though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWDeac Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Boy did I pick an absolutely awful storm to begin my weather tracking career. I am very confused about what could happen in Cincinnati. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 18 minutes ago, TWDeac said: Boy did I pick an absolutely awful storm to begin my weather tracking career. I am very confused about what could happen in Cincinnati. This is one of the trickier storms to track! I've been tracking as a hobby for years and I, like many forecasters in Northern Indiana, am not sure what will happen IMBY. I'm projected to be south of the fgen band and north of the deform band that develops near the low. It's uhhh...it's not great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 hours ago, Baum said: Forecasted 6-10" in these parts seems like we have several ways to get there one way or another. Anybody in line to get FGEN band and the synoptic snows? It looks like the only areas that both FGEN and synoptic snow will overlap is S. Wisconsin into S. Michigan. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 hours ago, RyanDe680 said: No one has really talked ratios. I would think that based on temps, moisture, etc., 10 to 1 seems good? I haven't looked at soundings since yesterday, but at that time 13-15:1 was a good range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: That fronto band is cranking pretty nicely this morning. Numerous reports of 1/4 mile vis from northern IA back into South Dakota. 1/8 mile in Forest City IA atm. It's a nice/strong FGEN band. However, it has under-performed further west...Most guidance has a large axis of 7-11" across South Dakota, where only 2-5" actually occurred. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, mimillman said: Starting to think a Lake Effect Snow Watch (or at least advisory) should be issued for Lake and Cook counties. Many people I’ve spoken to are completely unaware of any precipitation on Saturday night after the synoptic snows and will be caught completely off guard. Lake effect headlines were discontinued, so it would be WWA or WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: It's a nice/strong FGEN band. However, it has under-performed further west...Most guidance has a large axis of 7-11" across South Dakota, where only 2-5" actually occurred. Red flags coming from about every direction to lower expectations locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Red flags coming from about every direction to lower expectations locally. No faith in the Euro.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy46237 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I've not seen a lot about the timing of this system and I'm trying to coordinate safe transportation for my staff tomorrow night. I work in an event venue and providing our artist makes it in from Ottowa without a hitch, the show will go on regardless of the weather. Is it still too early to ask when things will start kicking up in the metro Indy area? ~Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It looks like the only areas that both FGEN and synoptic snow will overlap is S. Wisconsin into S. Michigan. Too bad we're not going to be able to maximize every aspect of this in northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I haven't looked at soundings since yesterday, but at that time 13-15:1 was a good range. Agreed, ratios will be higher than 10:1. They start at 12:1 and go up to 16:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Red flags coming from about every direction to lower expectations locally. nah. Go outside...it even smells like snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: Too bad we're not going to be able to maximize every aspect of this in northeast IL. Agree. However, with that FGEN band looking fairly transient and under-performing so far, it might not be as big of a deal in the end. We shall see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Baum said: nah. Go outside...it even smells like snow. 70/30 shot it under-performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEiowaWX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like there could be an area of 7-10" in south-central IA from near Osceola to a little west of Ottumwa. That area is having a hell of a winter, as they cashed in with some of the heaviest amounts from both the Nov 25th and last weekend's storm. It's been one heck of a winter so far! I've had 31.2" since Nov 1st! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Stormy46237 said: I've not seen a lot about the timing of this system and I'm trying to coordinate safe transportation for my staff tomorrow night. I work in an event venue and providing our artist makes it in from Ottowa without a hitch, the show will go on regardless of the weather. Is it still too early to ask when things will start kicking up in the metro Indy area? ~Thanks Onset near/before dawn. Conditions going downhill later Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 70/30 shot it under-performs. Most likely. Most times to me these storms underperform given all the complexities that go into them which is why I didn't bite big time on a super storm as many alluded to last Sunday when this thread was started. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to grab 4" overnight and another 2" of lake effect saturday night for 6" of fresh powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks like a 5-8” event in the CR/IC area. I’m currently in Iowa City but debating whether heading back to CR is something worth doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, SEiowaWX said: It's been one heck of a winter so far! I've had 31.2" since Nov 1st! Very nice! You look good for 6+" tonight. The area west of you between Albia and Osceola could very well exceed 8". For this area I'm going to narrow my 3-5" call to 4-5". Going with 12:1 LSR with around 0.35-0.40" precip. Out on the northwest side of QC I'd go with 5-6", with 4-5" for IL side of the QC. Hawkeye looks good for 6-7". LSRs may be a bit higher there, so I could easily see more than 7" there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I am eager for this to be over, to see what we've learned from this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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