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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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37 minutes ago, King James said:


Maybe bring it over to the banter thread if you feel like it but I’d love to hear some of your stories regarding storms in these rural areas. Came this way for the big sky and open fields and get the sense that Mother Nature is pretty powerful out this way. The sound of the wind alone is so much different than in the suburbs (grew up near midway)


.

I can tell you that GHD I & II were absolutely incredible out here in the open farm country of DeKalb.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

It should be noted that the RAP/HRRR have been trending north and more organized with the storm for several runs now.

However, they have also jumped north with the FGEN band as well, now fully taking it over MN to WI to MI.


.

I’m unsurprised. Think this is a major concern for our area

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11 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I’m unsurprised. Think this is a major concern for our area

Absolutely insane that after good model agreement for day, we diverge as we approach the storm RIGHT UP TO FLAKES FLYING. I guess we will nowcast this sucker, but I still feel good about a 4-6” floor for totals in my area.

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Nice discussion from MKX this morning.

Quote

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 456 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019)

SHORT TERM...

Today Through Saturday...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

We haven`t seen significant changes to model precip amounts with
the last couple of runs. If anything, amounts went up near the
WI/IL border and lake enhanced snow may affect Sheboygan county a
little longer than previously anticipated. We rolled the Winter
Storm Watch areas into a Warning with the exception of Ozaukee
County, then added Sheboygan and Ozaukee as Advisories. The other
Advisory counties remain unchanged.

Our snowfall amounts fall right in the middle of where the models
suggest. Looking at the WPC probability graphics on our winter
weather page, the forecast snowfall amounts fall in between the
50th and 75th percentiles. We are a little on the higher side of
guidance because many models do not handle the lake effect portion
very well since it is small scale.

Frontogenesis and upper divergence with the right entrance region
of the upper jet are the key players for southern Wisconsin and
northern Illinois with this event. The average position of the mid
level fgen band between the models is actually on the IL side of
the border. There is fgen expected around 850mb that should be
over southern WI this evening. The meso models are focusing their
higher reflectivity over northern IL. So there remains
uncertainty about whether or not the warning snowfall amounts will
make it into the southern tier of counties in WI.

The other key player is the lake enhancement component with a
long fetch of northeast winds with a sufficient lake-850mb temp
difference. This will add another couple of inches on to the
synoptic snow expected, thus highest snowfall amounts are
anticipated over eastern Kenosha county and areas into northeast
IL.

The model soundings show a deep dendritic growth zone over south
central WI for the last half of the snow, after midnight tonight
into Saturday morning. Then dry air moves in from the northwest
quickly to end the snow. There is a chance the snow could over-
perform during this time if we get higher snow ratios with the
deep DGZ, but went with more conservative amounts for now.

 

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I'm back in Galesburg for this one, considering heading to either Macomb (where my apartment is) or Davenport/Eldridge (where my mom lives). Synoptic snows look pretty good down here, so I may just stay put. Could see some whiteout conditions, HRRR  is advertising winds of 20-25 knots out of the northeast, with higher gusts. Even if we don't see the highest snowfall, I think the wind could be enough to cause issues. Snowfall ratios may be lower down south as well, which could lead to lower totals, but also concrete like snow again.

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3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

That’s a nice LE signal on the NAM there, very slow to rotate east. Someone in NE IL could see a lucky 6” from the lake effect alone, methinks

Forecasted 6-10" in these parts seems like we have several ways to get there one way or another. Anybody in line to get FGEN band and the synoptic snows?

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7 minutes ago, Baum said:

Forecasted 6-10" in these parts seems like we have several ways to get there one way or another. Anybody in line to get FGEN band and the synoptic snows?

I don’t think Glen Ellyn sees 6-10” with recent trends in the FGEN. Think it’ll be closer to 4-6” all in, LE included.

I can see storm total of 6-10” by the lake where the band sets up. Even Milwaukee in line to get 6-10” if you ask me, all in.

Personally I wish I was a bit further north (maybe Waukegan area), but I still like where I am, right on the lake.

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11 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I don’t think Glen Ellyn sees 6-10” with recent trends in the FGEN. Think it’ll be closer to 4-6” all in, LE included.

I can see storm total of 6-10” by the lake where the band sets up. Even Milwaukee in line to get 6-10” if you ask me, all in.

Personally I wish I was a bit further north (maybe Waukegan area), but I still like where I am, right on the lake.

I an going to say that mby into Glen Ellen sees 6-10”. If the FGEN gets shunted way north, in theory that would be due to the fact that the storm is taking a more northerly track, thus giving us synoptic snows. 

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9 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

Hard to spread the wealth of a decent snow event any better than this.

Gorgeous calm before the storm AM outside today.

Love the positive attitude. I think you’re in a good spot. Fully expecting that band to quickly swing north and set up shop north of the border.

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I don’t think Glen Ellyn sees 6-10” with recent trends in the FGEN. Think it’ll be closer to 4-6” all in, LE included.
I can see storm total of 6-10” by the lake where the band sets up. Even Milwaukee in line to get 6-10” if you ask me, all in.
Personally I wish I was a bit further north (maybe Waukegan area), but I still like where I am, right on the lake.
That would be 6".

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

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5 minutes ago, fluoronium said:

I know I'm being greedy, but I don't like being in the doughnut hole that's showing up on multiple models. Heavier snows in every direction around me. Still though a 5" snow would be nice, but I've been spoiled from the recent storm. :lol:

I would love to see that map extended to the east another 500 miles. 

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