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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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23 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

00z UK

The central/western Iowa warning area may be in jeopardy.  All of this evening's models look like this.  The northern band is about the same, but the more positively tilted/quicker system is leading to a more eastward-veering southern band.

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019011800_60_5660_220.thumb.png.d8a8b471a3bae10361d1d28e2270eaf6.png

 

This storm has produced some of the more bizarre precip maps I can remember seeing.  

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6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

 

This storm has produced some of the more bizarre precip maps I can remember seeing.  

Was looking at the SPC severe outlooks and they've been a little inconsistent down south too  Maybe it has something to do with +/- moisture robbing from convection not being handled well?

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5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

New Euro looks pretty good for the Cedar Rapids/Dubuque crew.  0.5" precip for those areas, which should fluff up to 6-7".  0.35-0.40" for the QCA/here, which would fluff up to 4-5".  Gonna ride my call of 3-5" for here/QC.  6-7" for the CR crew.  

You're lucky. You should see a decent event. Every single model has me in the snow void between the two more intense bands. I'm thinking 2-4in more so for Peoria now

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9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

New Euro looks pretty good for the Cedar Rapids/Dubuque crew.  0.5" precip for those areas, which should fluff up to 6-7".  0.35-0.40" for the QCA/here, which would fluff up to 4-5".  Gonna ride my call of 3-5" for here/QC.  6-7" for the CR crew.  

Believe that is one of the wetter models for CR, except for the NAM.

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Believe that is one of the wetter models for CR, except for the NAM.

The northeast/southwest oriented precip max shown on the NAMs will likely adjust northwest towards where the Euro shows it IMO on the next few runs.  I feel the NAMs are a bit too far southeast with that northeast/southwest oriented precip max.  

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Going to make a call for my location at 5” based on latest guidance and temperatures. May be some over-performing IF convection south doesn’t rob of moisture, but as Hoosier said earlier, these warm air advection snows can certainly overperform and this one is definitely capable of just that. 

 

06z and 12z had less convection in the south (Kentucky south to Mississippi/Alabama) where as 18z and 00z have caught onto more widespread even possibly severe rain/convection from KY points south and east. All options really still on the table. This will likely turn into more of a nowcasting event. Still fun to watch unfold. Sure beats the hell out of nothing!

 

*Edit

Expect for a WWA to be hoisted for the I-96 corridor points south this morning... but not holding my breath - GRR/DTX :arrowhead:

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Lake effect is an obvious wildcard but I like the 7-10" range here for a combined storm + LES total.  It's a bit difficult at this time to pick out the most favored area for the most persistent LES.  I think the lake will add a general 3-6" to the totals with potential for over 6" wherever it ends up persisting longest. 

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Lake effect is an obvious wildcard but I like the 7-10" range here for a combined storm + LES total.  It's a bit difficult at this time to pick out the most favored area for the most persistent LES.  I think the lake will add a general 3-6" to the totals with potential for over 6" wherever it ends up persisting longest. 

Pretty solid forecast there IMO.  The LE aspect is def a wildcard for the whole shoreline from Chicago into northwest IN.  Some areas could definitely score a huge total if they can get in under the main band for any length of time.  Pretty much impossible to tell if and where that would happen from this far out.  Who knows, maybe Griffin will be ground zero for that.  It's definitely possible. 

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28 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Lake effect is an obvious wildcard but I like the 7-10" range here for a combined storm + LES total.  It's a bit difficult at this time to pick out the most favored area for the most persistent LES.  I think the lake will add a general 3-6" to the totals with potential for over 6" wherever it ends up persisting longest. 

Think that’s a solid call. Intriguing to say the least for your area with the potential for some good lake effect ontop of synoptic snow. Also with the 30+ mph winds from the NE could see some blizzard conditions to boot. 

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9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

6z NAM with sig changes.

Trough is well organized once again, and SLP is further north with a more organized system.

Might just be off hour shenanigans, or maybe not. We'll see at 12z and with other runs.

It seems like a much more believable run-- at least in terms of ultimate output of snow. 8ish inches seems more in the realm of what this system is capable of. 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
310 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...

ILZ044>046-053-182200-
/O.UPG.KILX.WS.A.0002.190119T0000Z-190120T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KILX.WS.W.0002.190119T0600Z-190120T0600Z/
Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Macon-
Including the cities of Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville,
and Decatur
310 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snowfall expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to
  6 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Piatt, Champaign, Vermilion and Macon Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight CST Saturday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.
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Thinking 4-6” for my area. It really looks like we’re going to be south of a good chunk of the action in Chicago tonight. For LES it always seems like with the NE IL setups we get a brief hit as the band whips its way east rather than dumped under a fire hose that doesn’t move. Hopefully I’m wrong but setting low expectations.

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I hate to "bash", but :lol: at the Winter Storm Warning for IKK. Most of the guidance for here barely has enough snow for an advisory, let alone a warning. Guess the wind component may have been factored in, but it's not like we haven't seen 2" with 30 mph gusts before...not that crazy. 

Final call of 1-3" for MBY. Euro and Ukie has been rock solid with the sucker hole overtop, and the others have followed suit. Good luck to those up north and south with the big totals. :snowing:

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I hate to "bash", but :lol: at the Winter Storm Warning for IKK. Most of the guidance for here barely has enough snow for an advisory, let alone a warning. Guess the wind component may have been factored in, but it's not like we haven't seen 2" with 30 mph gusts before...not that crazy. 
Final call of 1-3" for MBY. Euro and Ukie has been rock solid with the sucker hole overtop, and the others have followed suit. Good luck to those up north and south with the big totals. :snowing:

Maybe bring it over to the banter thread if you feel like it but I’d love to hear some of your stories regarding storms in these rural areas. Came this way for the big sky and open fields and get the sense that Mother Nature is pretty powerful out this way. The sound of the wind alone is so much different than in the suburbs (grew up near midway)


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I hate to "bash", but :lol: at the Winter Storm Warning for IKK. Most of the guidance for here barely has enough snow for an advisory, let alone a warning. Guess the wind component may have been factored in, but it's not like we haven't seen 2" with 30 mph gusts before...not that crazy. 
Final call of 1-3" for MBY. Euro and Ukie has been rock solid with the sucker hole overtop, and the others have followed suit. Good luck to those up north and south with the big totals. :snowing:

My guess is they might have been forced into it, due to having to collaborate with DVN/ILX/IND.

I know Ricky was mentioning last night that if they go warning, it might only be for advisory amounts...and that’s pretty much what they did, going with 3-7”.


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