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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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2 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

HRRR/RAP/RGEM trends have been extremely unfavorable. Or I could just be sleep deprived after a week of regular work and tracking this in my spare time, but I don’t feel good about this at all

ok. short term model trends. Your the pro so I'll trust your insight. Would be a dramatic change based on some of the maps i've seen.

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6 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

HRRR/RAP/RGEM trends have been extremely unfavorable. Or I could just be sleep deprived after a week of regular work and tracking this in my spare time, but I don’t feel good about this at all

I was noticing that. If 0z hrrr is right a lot of locations are going to underperform 

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:


The HRRR and RAP are not good, especially the HRRR.


.

You aren’t wrong, but even then most globals and other high res guidance has been putting a nice gradient down somewhere in west central Iowa. Even then I don’t feel great about widespread warning criteria snow. Something about this storm just doesn’t feel right to me.

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2 minutes ago, Baum said:

ok. short term model trends. Your the pro so I'll trust your insight. Would be a dramatic change based on some of the maps i've seen.

With last weekends system in the long range (so about now) the short-term models were also looking awful. Way underdone on amounts just about everywhere, but that eventually began to slowly improve with every run. Not saying it’ll happen again, but just an observation 

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1 minute ago, AppsRunner said:

You aren’t wrong, but even then most globals and other high res guidance has been putting a nice gradient down somewhere in west central Iowa. Even then I don’t feel great about widespread warning criteria snow. Something about this storm just doesn’t feel right to me.

Like bad feeling it will underperform or that models are underestimating its potential?

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2 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

You aren’t wrong, but even then most globals and other high res guidance has been putting a nice gradient down somewhere in west central Iowa. Even then I don’t feel great about widespread warning criteria snow. Something about this storm just doesn’t feel right to me.

I needed you to say that 48 hrs ago before you got me invested.

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6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

0z NAM is taking a step back.

 

The trough is more positive tilt as it ejects out into the Plains, with more energy hanging back. Additionally, it may try to close off at 500mb well south.

 

That being said, still going to be a very nice run for Chicago area.

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10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

0z NAM is taking a step back.

 

The trough is more positive tilt as it ejects out into the Plains, with more energy hanging back. Additionally, it may try to close off at 500mb well south.

 

This moreso than anything IMO. 18z run had the SLP just north of the Red River vs south of the Red River but the trough had already been tilted pretty well neutrally for a few hours before hand. 

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