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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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We were rerunning the expected snow graphic and probs this afternoon and wanted to only include the system snow but we're having issues with it including the LES as well. That's why there's a disconnect with the other probabilistic stuff and 10th and 90th percentiles.

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22 minutes ago, TheRegionRat said:

Wow!!!! Hope it pans out.  I'm just inside the 12-18 zone. 

How fast the band moves through our area is critical.  Here's a NAM forecast sounding I pulled from the middle of the band (offshore of IL) valid early Sunday.  Excellent lift right through the dendritic growth zone.

2088602271_2019011718_NAM_063_42.3-87.43_severe_ml.thumb.png.185b933ef25378972c445445595e1ebe.png

The low level flow sort of breaks down/weakens with time on Sunday, so I think the band behavior/movement could become increasingly difficult to predict.  Still looks like it could bend back west later Sunday into Monday, likely starting to weaken by then.

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1 minute ago, RogueWaves said:

Darker shade stretches to both side of the lake tho. If you meant lake enhancement due to the easterly flow, it should be on the IL side only I'd think.

I think he's looking at the NE-SW returns coming onshore in Wisconsin.

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

How fast the band moves through our area is critical.  Here's a NAM forecast sounding I pulled from the middle of the band (offshore of IL) valid early Sunday.  Excellent lift right through the dendritic growth zone.

2088602271_2019011718_NAM_063_42.3-87.43_severe_ml.thumb.png.185b933ef25378972c445445595e1ebe.png

The low level flow sort of breaks down/weakens with time on Sunday, so I think the band behavior/movement could become increasingly difficult to predict.  Still looks like it could bend back west later Sunday into Monday, likely starting to weaken by then.

The lake effect is certainly the deal maker for the higher totals.  Typically, you in Griffith will see a few more inches than I will.  

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6 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Local news said on their weather report that they asked and the reason the IWX counties of Michigan had a watch and the other's haven't is because "The first tier of counties have a higher risk for more significant accumulations, as well as more blowing and drifting" 

Interesting.

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