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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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While the surface low track is pretty similar, there are some large differences in the precip field, especially in IA/IL/MI where the main WAA snows are displaced north with a general decrease in amounts with the slightly faster progression. This is a really good run for N IL though. 

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It actually still does try to close off at 500mb by 54-57hr.

SLP ends up between 6z and 0z runs. Main difference is just in precip field, with it not trying to close off until a bit later than the past two runs. You can see heavier snows break out across S. IL as that occurs.

8b5fad715f69508d8653bfefca375836.jpg


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I'm starting to think that there's something going on with the warm sector convection with this system that some of the globals aren't handling that the meso models are.

There's a good reason to be a bit uneasy when the Euro is much more paltry and you'd like to see some even minor positive trends today. On the other hand, we're in the non clown range of the meso models, sampling of the Pac wave has begun, and the meso models aren't backing down. Also, to second what's been said, fgen will absolutely be handled better by the meso models than the globals.

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55 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

The southern band has a new mind of its own.

Strange-Crush-snku_024h.us_mw.png

I want that thing to come north by just 10 miles lol. 

Unsure what to make of the global vs. hi-res situation at this juncture. Want to start trusting the hi-res stuff more at this time given that we’re closing in on 48 hours and banding placement becomes more of a factor for who sees jackpot snow. But at the same time, that all goes out the window if this thing indeed takes a “Euro-step” weaker and southward. What’s the timing projection on this thing being fully sampled?

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5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

GFS snow totals I think are way underdone in northern IL. I think it is having convective feedback or something. It is so splotchy with totals

Yeah, seems like the surface lows are generally similar in strength and location on the 12z GFS and 12z NAM...but for Chicago area, GFS shows about 0.4” of liquid and NAM is close to 1”. Splitting the difference is probably a reasonable approach for now. 0.7” of liquid at 13:1 ratios implies about 9” of snow. Admittedly it’s a very rough estimate, but we will see what other hi res guidance starts showing as it gets into better range.

Either way, lake effect/enhancement will be an interesting wildcard. 

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7 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Winter storm watches hoisted for DVNs CWA. Not sure who all is included but Linn and Johnson are.

 

wsw.JPG

 

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1005 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

...Significant Winter Storm to Affect the Area...

.A significant winter storm will affect the area starting Friday
afternoon and continuing through Saturday. Unlike the last winter
storm, the snow from this storm will be of the dry, fluffy type.
Additionally, winds will be stronger and will create drifting snow
with some blowing snow possible.

Snow/rain ratios will be increasing during this winter storm. Thus
it is possible that snowfall amounts could trend higher over the
next 24 hours.

IAZ054-066-068-ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035-180015-
/O.NEW.KDVN.WS.A.0001.190118T2100Z-190119T2100Z/
Jackson-Clinton-Scott-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside-
Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-
Hancock-McDonough-
Including the cities of Maquoketa, Clinton, Davenport,
Bettendorf, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, Sterling, Moline,
Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, Aledo, Oquawka,
Monmouth, Carthage, and Macomb
1005 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches possible. Storm total accumulations could exceed 6
  inches. Drifting snow is likely with some blowing snow possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Iowa and north central,
  northwest and west central Illinois.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Friday through 3 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

 

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8 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Winter storm watches hoisted for DVNs CWA. Not sure who all is included but Linn and Johnson are.

It's their whole CWA. DMX is considering a warning... potentially a warning for the north and south with an advisory in between.... or a blanket warning. Should be a decision within a couple hours. 

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1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

NAM is a great hit for N Il. 

Edit: Cyclone javkpot

FC936256-1B51-4E2F-A22C-FD66766EE3C7.png

How ironic would that be after days of being shown in the lull zone?  The GFS and now the RGEM still show the area of lower totals from east Iowa through parts of northern IL so I'm not biting on this one lol.  Would be nice though.  

 

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