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Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019


cyclone77
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26 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

At some point I'd love to head out that way and get into one of those lake-effect bands.  Other than the meager flurries we'll get from the lake on rare occasion I've never been in a true lake-effect snow band.  

Maybe Weatherbo will invite us up for a Superior 24 inch hammer time lol

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9 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Hey not bad for you too!

The lake effect is the bright spot for us both IMO. 

Agree

I am thinking 13-15:1 ratios or something like that for most of the synoptic part.  Then for the lake effect, that is often high ratio and there's no reason to doubt that this time given the temps and the omega/dgz collocation.  Winds also will be diminishing with time so dendrite fracturing shouldn't be an issue.  Should have no problem getting very high ratios with the lake effect.  

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1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

At this rate I can forgetta bout it wrt any "watch" from my office. Gonna be surrounded by 'em with a dead zone in between :arrowhead:

We know this all too well. GRR is taking this as a slam dunk 1-4” but they sure do seem impressed about next Tuesday and Wednesday. Let’s focus on the here and now potential first GRR :rolleyes:.

 

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7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

0z EMCWF did come in further north and more neutral tilt with the trough coming into the Plains...But outside of that SLP pushes fairly east.

When you look at the surface wind fields one would argue that the surface low should be further north but the model has the lowest pressure further south in the elongation of the low. Then yeah the southern lower pressure gets pulled east by convection.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

Grasping straws instance, but the long range RAP is even further north with the trough as ejects out into the Plains and is more neutral tilt earlier. SLP is way up in S. Kansas.

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If that map is correct I see why the models want to dive this far to the south then. It is that nonsense across Mexico.

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2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The fact that the Euro continues the weak sauce output definitely makes me lean towards it and the wussy GFS as well.  Unfortunately it looks like the NAM/RGEM are incorrect.  

Sadly I think you're right. Pretty close to throwing in the towel on this one coming together but going to hold off to see if sampling will change model output or not. Would like to see support from the globals in favor of the hi-res

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06z so far is continuing its trend of slower and stronger in the plains.

Big changes again, in a positive way.

Southern trough ends up going neutral tilt earlier yet again, and this run closed off 500mb over C. Kansas by 51hr. Slower a bit as you mentioned, do the the aforementioned.


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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:


Big changes again, in a positive way.

Southern trough ends up going neutral tilt earlier yet again, and this run closed off 500mb over C. Kansas by 51hr. Slower a bit as you mentioned, do the the aforementioned.


.

Any other time of year and this would be one hell of a severe set up down south, I do think they get some as is but man, if this was March and beyond.

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