Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAM is going to be well north, many factors in play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: NAM definitely going to be better and probably north. Southern wave is stronger, neutral tilt trough sooner, more ridging over Midwest/OV and less ridging over Western states earlier. I have 27 hours (midnight Thursday) to decide if I’m hunkering down in the Chicago Loop Saturday morning (and all day) or trying to drive home 50ish miles... Looking more and more likely I may be saying downtown. But now the lake effect Saturday night could make Sunday trouble. Sampling and next 24 hours will start turning some of this ensemble roulette into hopefully a more clear picture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: NAM is going to be well north, many factors in play. With the high to the north across the UP into Ontario, any stronger and further north the system goes the stronger the pressure gradient will be also the stronger the frontogenesis will be. This could really squeeze the juice out of the atmosphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Aallen said: Looks like the high pressure may be pushing in quicker on the 0z nam The isobars overall are placed a bit northwest. It's better to look at that than where the model is placing the H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The NAM looks worlds better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 One big observation on the 0z NAM is that the following wave crashing into the PAC NW is actually helping lower heights with the Western ridge. This might help kick our the southern trough, possibly northeast a bit eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: One big observation on the 0z NAM is that the following wave crashing into the PAC NW is actually helping lower heights with the Western ridge. This might help kick our the southern trough, possibly northeast a bit eventually. Yep that is the kicker, only downside would be that it might speed the forward progression of the storm but that would be a small downside compared to the positives coming out of the kicker wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The isobars overall are placed a bit northwest. It's better to look at that than where the model is placing the H. I see what you’re saying. New to this model watching, just love big winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I-70 corridor really jackpots on this one, though kinda hard to say whether or not that includes any mixed precip action as the 32 line is quite close. EDIT: Am I seeing a little bit more E-W precip orientation this go of the NAM too or is it just my eyes? I’m 50/50 on either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Starting to get a kitchen sink feeling for the onset. I'm Cyclone greedy now that I've had a taste lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aallen Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looks like most of us gets at least 6 according to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Depending on how the rest of the suite comes in, we should see watches posted with the morning AFDs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The 3km NAM agrees with its 12km counterpart. That's probably not worth a lot, but at least something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Sciascia said: lol at that Gary, IN-Oak Harbor, OH long screw hole. Part of north central IL in there too. Fascinating feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, hlcater said: The 3km NAM agrees with its 12km counterpart. That's probably not worth a lot, but at least something. Actually that is a good sign, I trust the 3km a lot more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Boy oh boy oh boy. This one gets the ole tracking juices flowing again. Just a classic looking MW storm. It's a shame we won't realize its full potential up this way but I can use my what if imagination. Still could do quite well here all things considered. First Jan storm in yrs that I feel there's a chance. Excellent thoughts on the previous page also. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, Sciascia said: That gradient hurts me on so many levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, geddyweather said: lol at that Gary, IN-Oak Harbor, OH long screw hole. Part of north central IL in there too. Fascinating feature. Some kind of weird feedback issue on the 00Z NAM in the NW flank of the storm in the 66-80 hour range. Anyone speak to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That NAM run is the best case scenario here. Take that and run please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: That gradient hurts me on so many levels. There's always this insanity! Ya never know lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 If you think the 0z NAM is north, try the 0z RGEM... It only goes to 48hrs, but it has a 999mb SLP over OKC at 48hr. The NAM is ~1003MB near Fredrick, OK along the Red River. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Jackstraw said: There's always this insanity! Ya never know lol. I think i'm speaking for most of the sub, when I say please happen! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: If you think the 0z NAM is north, try the 0z RGEM... It only goes to 48hrs, but it has a 999mb SLP over OKC at 48hr. The NAM is ~1003MB near Fredrick, OK along the Red River. That is the one thing I don't know if I buy, the 12NAM's intensity, even the 3km NAM is a bit stronger too. It is closer to the 18z GFS which was even stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The big question should be who else comes to the NAMs agreement. Even with this new run there’s still the outliers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, RyanDe680 said: The big question should be who else comes to the NAMs agreement. Even with this new run there’s still the outliers I would have to imagine the Euro comes north tonight, to be honest I would be shocked if it didn't. The RGEM is already north as a mesoscale model. With the system starting to reach shore we are starting to get useful data on it as well. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: I would have to imagine the Euro comes north tonight, to be honest I would be shocked if it didn't. The RGEM is already north as a mesoscale model. With the system starting to reach shore we are starting to get useful data on it as well. Supposedly the 18z Euro was a little north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: Supposedly the 18z Euro was a little north. Barely. It was pitiful compared to any other 18/0z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: Supposedly the 18z Euro was a little north. I keep forgetting there is an 18z Euro, not that I know where to find it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Barely. It was pitiful compared to any other 18/0z run. You're our 06z/18z Euro guy from now on. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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